Canada Nickel

The investment case rests on scale, a low cost position and a permitting path that both levels of government have prioritized. The Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS), effective 12 October 2023, outlines a 41-year open pit mine-mill operation built in two phases: a 60,000 tonne per day mill in years 1 to 3.5, expanding to 120,000 tonnes per day thereafter. Peak production during the 27-year Phase II period averages 48,000 tonnes of nickel, 76,000 tonnes of chromium, 1.6 million tonnes of iron and 13,000 ounces of palladium and platinum per year, with 1.6 million tonnes of nickel recovered over the project life. Initial capital is US$1.94 billion and expansion capital US$1.6 billion.

By-product credits from iron, chromium and cobalt drive a life-of-mine net C1 cash cost of US$0.39 per pound of nickel and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of US$1.54 per pound, placing Crawford in the first quartile of the global nickel cost curve on Wood Mackenzie 2022 data. Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) completed in 2025 raised the after-tax net present value at an 8% discount rate (NPV8) to US$2.8 billion from US$2.5 billion and the after-tax internal rate of return (IRR) to 17.6% from 17.1%, while holding the initial capital increase to 5%, at approximately US$2.0 billion, and cutting pre-stripping by 30%. Including expected carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) tax credits, the company reports an NPV8 of approximately US$2.9 billion and an IRR of approximately 18.9%. During the peak period, the BFS projects average annual EBITDA of US$811 million and free cash flow of US$546 million.

The company states that Indonesian supply discipline is tightening the nickel market. The company estimates that Indonesia controls 67% of global nickel supply, 13 percentage points above OPEC's all-time peak share of oil supply, and that Indonesian saprolite ore grades fell 8% in 2025 and 16% over three years. Since April 2025, Indonesia has introduced tiered export royalties, cut mining license terms from three years to one, banned new nickel pig iron and high-pressure acid leach operations, reduced ore quotas and revised its ore benchmark pricing formula. The company, citing the International Nickel Study Group (INSG), forecasts global nickel demand to double by 2030 to approximately 5 million tonnes per year.

Chief Executive Officer Mark Selby was previously Chief Executive Officer of Royal Nickel Corporation and held corporate development, strategy and market research roles at Inco and Quadra Mining. Chief Financial Officer Wendy Kaufman has more than 25 years of experience in mining project finance, capital markets and financial reporting and completed the project financing for Cobre Panama. Chris Chang, Vice President Corporate Development, spent 17 years in investment banking and capital markets, including as a mining specialist at Macquarie and Raymond James, and has raised more than CAD$1 billion in equity for junior and mid-cap miners.

The technical team is led by Steve Balch, P.Geo., Vice President Exploration, who has 35 years in nickel-copper-PGE geophysics, including at Inco in the Sudbury Basin and Voisey's Bay. Mathieu Boucher, P.Eng., Director Environment, led Crawford through the federal Impact Assessment, and Scott MacDougall, Vice President Carbon and Energy Development, previously worked with the Pembina Institute, the Government of Alberta and Suncor Energy. Senior Project Advisor Desmond Tranquilla has more than 32 years on major capital projects and delivered the Detour Gold project on time and on budget, while Mike Cox, Advisor to NetZero Metals, spent 35 years in nickel processing at Inco and Vale overseeing a global refinery portfolio.

The board is chaired by David Smith, P.Eng., former Senior Vice President Finance and Chief Financial Officer of Agnico Eagle Mines. Directors include Jackie Przybylowski, formerly Managing Director of Metals and Mining Equity Research at BMO Capital Markets; Julian Ovens, a former senior manager at Rio Tinto and BHP; Jennifer Morais, with more than 20 years in private equity and mining finance at TPG Capital, CPPIB and OMERS; Kulvir Singh Gill; Francisca Quinn; and Chief Bruce Archibald of TTN, which received a board seat alongside its CAD$20 million equity investment.

Crawford moved into execution in 2026. Ontario designated the project under its One Project, One Process framework in January 2026, following referral to the federal Major Projects Office in 2025, and in July 2026 the company received its federal Decision Statement, which it describes as the first mining approval under Canada's amended Impact Assessment Act since 2019. Ausenco was awarded detailed engineering of the process plant in January 2026, Hydro One signed a grid connection engineering agreement in March 2026, and on 14 September 2026 the company selected Komatsu and SMS Equipment for a CAD$1.5 billion load-and-haul fleet of more than 300 machines over 40 years, chosen from four vendor proposals for its autonomous haulage and trolley-assist technology.

The company is targeting definitive fleet agreements, TTN fleet financing, an investment tax credit facility and a full financing package in the first quarter of 2027, a Final Investment Decision in the third quarter of 2027, a 27-month construction period starting in the fourth quarter of 2027 and first production in the fourth quarter of 2029. The US$2.5 billion funding plan is 40% equity and 60% debt. The equity side includes approximately US$600 million of Clean Technology Manufacturing and CCUS investment tax credits, for which SB1 Markets was mandated in June 2026 to arrange a facility, the US$100 million Samsung SDI option, US$100 million to US$300 million of government programs and up to US$200 million from a minority interest or joint venture being pursued with Scotiabank and Deutsche Bank. The debt side includes a letter of intent from Export Development Canada for US$500 million as Mandated Lead Arranger, a CAD$500 million support letter from a Canadian financing agency and a further US$500 million targeted from export credit agencies and private lenders.

Beyond Crawford, the company has published resources on nine deposits in the Timmins Nickel District totalling 4.36 billion tonnes at 0.24% nickel Measured and Indicated (10.3 million tonnes contained nickel) and 5.70 billion tonnes at 0.23% nickel Inferred (13.2 million tonnes), compared with an estimated 19 million tonnes of nickel endowment for the Sudbury district. Reid, updated in January 2026, holds 2.14 million tonnes of nickel Measured and Indicated and 3.22 million tonnes Inferred within only 55% of its target footprint, and new resources were published at Deloro and Nesbitt in July 2026. Downstream, on 26 October 2026 Swiss Steel Group and Canada Nickel announced a framework agreement, signed on 23 October, for exclusive access to approximately 1 million tonnes per year of low-carbon semi-finished steel from 2030, to be produced by NetZero Metals. The company's IPT Carbonation process is designed to store 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year at full ramp-up, with potential to scale to 10 to 15 million tonnes per year through the NetCarb Alliance.

Canada Nickel is pre-revenue. Cash of CAD$29 million and debt of CAD$61 million at 31 July 2026, including the CAD$21 million August 2026 private placement, compare with initial capital of approximately US$2.0 billion after FEED. The company's funding plan includes approximately US$600 million of investment tax credits and up to US$300 million of government programs on the equity side, and up to US$1.5 billion of agency and export credit debt, with Samsung SDI's US$100 million option providing a further non-dilutive contribution tied to offtake.

The BFS projects that, once at full capacity, Crawford generates average annual EBITDA of US$811 million and free cash flow of US$546 million during the 27-year peak period, and US$667 million and US$431 million respectively over the life of mine. The two-phase build defers the US$1.6 billion expansion to year 3.5. Phase I carries a higher net C1 cost of US$2.67 per pound and AISC of US$2.96 per pound at 60,000 tonnes per day, falling to US$0.68 and US$1.54 per pound respectively in Phase II.

On valuation, Samsung SDI's US$100 million option for 10% of Crawford implies a project value of US$1 billion, while the FEED NPV8 is US$2.8 billion. The company's market capitalization was approximately CAD$336 million, and the company holds resources on eight further deposits in the district. The share price ranged from CAD$0.97 to CAD$2.59 over the preceding 52 weeks, with a 20-day volume-weighted average price of CAD$1.40.

• Commodity Price Volatility: Project economics depend on nickel and by-product prices, particularly iron and chromium, which drive the low net C1 cost. Reserves were estimated using US$15,650 per tonne nickel. Indonesian supply management and declining ore grades support prices, and the company reports that the July 2026 average nickel price was approximately US$2,000 per tonne above the November 2025 low. The first-quartile cost position and the Samsung SDI offtake arrangement reduce exposure to price downturns.
• Regulatory & Permitting Risks: The federal Decision Statement has been received, but provincial and federal permits required for construction are targeted for the third quarter of 2027 and provincial operating permits for the second quarter of 2029. Designation under the federal Major Projects Office and Ontario's One Project, One Process framework is intended to coordinate and shorten approvals, and the Timmins camp has a long record of mine permitting.
• Technical & Operational Risks: Crawford is a large-tonnage, low-grade deposit, with a life-of-mine nickel head grade of 0.22% and nickel recovery of 41%, so results are sensitive to throughput, recovery and mining costs. Phase I costs are materially higher than the life-of-mine average. The FEED re-sequenced the mine plan toward higher-value East Zone ore and cut pre-stripping by 30%, and the operation uses proven open pit and milling technology rather than an untested process.
• Environmental & Social Risks: The project will be a large open pit operation in Treaty Nine territory. TTN is a 6.1% shareholder on conversion and holds a board seat, a contracting agreement has been signed with Matachewan, Mattagami and Flying Post First Nations through Wabun Tribal Council, and the company published its 2025 ESG report on 6 October 2026. IPT Carbonation is designed to store CO2 in tailings, though commercial-scale performance is not yet proven.
• Financing Risk: The US$2.5 billion funding plan is not yet in place, and cash of CAD$29 million covers pre-construction activity only. Several components are at letter-of-intent, support letter or mandate stage, and the CCUS tax credits are expected but not confirmed. Support from Export Development Canada, the Samsung SDI option and strategic holders Agnico Eagle and Anglo American reduce, but do not remove, that risk.
• Execution Risk: The schedule requires closing the full financing package in the first quarter of 2027, a Final Investment Decision in the third quarter of 2027 and a 27-month build to first production in late 2029. Downstream projects, including the Swiss Steel partnership, remain at framework stage with no disclosed financial terms. Detailed engineering by Ausenco, the selected Komatsu fleet and a team with Detour Gold delivery and Cobre Panama financing experience support execution.

Canada Nickel offers exposure to one of the world's largest nickel sulfide reserves in the established Timmins mining camp of Ontario, which the company describes as a Tier 1 jurisdiction, with first-quartile projected costs, a federal Decision Statement in hand and strategic backing from Agnico Eagle, Samsung SDI, Anglo American and TTN. The past year moved Crawford from study to execution, with engineering, fleet selection, grid connection and tax credit financing work under way, while the Swiss Steel framework agreement adds a potential downstream outlet from 2030.

The main uncertainties are whether the US$2.5 billion funding plan can be closed largely without equity dilution, whether construction permits arrive on the 2027 schedule, and whether a low-grade, high-throughput operation delivers the projected recoveries and costs. With a market capitalization of approximately CAD$336 million against a US$2.8 billion FEED NPV8, the full financing package in the first quarter of 2027 and a Final Investment Decision in the third quarter of 2027 are the key milestones for investors to track.