Fed Rates Rise, Old Rejections Get Second Look: Eyes on This Year's Mining Conferences

• The Federal Reserve's unanimous 25 basis point hike to 3.75-4.00% was fully priced in by the market, reflected in a muted reaction across gold and the US dollar.
• Gold's resilience rests on its historical correlation with real, not nominal, interest rates, which keeps Olive's long-term monetary debasement thesis for precious metals intact.
• Fed may not hike again at its 27-28 October meeting, given how close that date falls to the US midterm elections.
• This cycle's conference focus has shifted toward identifying which already-funded companies can convert their capital into tangible progress.
• Olive is hunting for a copper stories following Arizona Sonoran Copper's acquisition, and points to Gladiator Metals and Bravo Mining as a case study for revisiting previously dismissed names.

After the Federal Reserve's September policy decision, Olive Resource Capital's Samuel Pelaez, President, CEO and CIO, and Derek Macpherson, Executive Chairman,  unpacked the market's reaction to the Fed's unanimous rate hike before turning to their preparations for back-to-back mining conferences in Colorado. The conversation moves from monetary policy and gold's rate sensitivity to the pair's playbook for identifying opportunities during the industry's busiest weeks of the year.

A Rate Hike Nobody Bet Against

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% on September 16, 2026, its first increase since 2023, in a unanimous 12-0 vote. Both guests admitted they had not expected the move, with Macpherson opening the episode by conceding he had "a little bit of egg" on his face. Pelaez said he was less surprised by the hike itself than by the lack of dissent on the committee,

"There's plenty of arguments to support the decision to hike rates. And maybe that's ultimately what the Fed was going for is maintain credibility, all the elements are there to to go ahead with a rate hike."

The pair walked through what they see as driving inflation independently of monetary policy: an oil supply shock pushing up diesel and refined-product prices, a lagged pass-through effect from tariffs, and the build-out of AI data centres, the one channel they felt the Fed could realistically influence by raising the cost of capital for developers. Macpherson noted diesel prices sitting around $6 a gallon in parts of the US as evidence a single 25 basis point move was unlikely to meaningfully cool the economy.

The market's reaction reinforced their reading. Pelaez pointed out the US Dollar Index moved only a couple of basis points and that gold's price action was "muted", concluding these are the hallmarks of a decision the market had already absorbed. Macpherson referenced the US two-year Treasury yield, then sitting at 4.7%, as a signal that fixed-income markets are pricing in at least three further hikes, framing the September move as as much about the Fed defending its credibility as responding to the latest data.

Why Gold Shrugged It Off

Despite the shift toward tighter policy, both argued the hike does little to alter their multi-year bullish thesis on precious metals. Pelaez explained that the relationship investors should watch is between gold and real, not nominal, interest rates.

"The debasement trade, the government's willingness to deficit spend and devalue their fiat currencies relative to gold, that trend isn't changing. And I think that's the kind of the point we're going to probably agree on, that even if we go into a rate hiking cycle which we saw a couple years ago, it didn't affect the gold price."

Under the monetary debasement framework the pair have referenced on prior episodes, persistent negative real rates, where inflation outpaces bond yields, continue to erode the case for holding cash relative to gold. The discussion tied this to the broader fiscal picture: continued government deficit spending and currency devaluation have persisted through the hiking cycle, keeping the long-term case for gold intact, even as both acknowledged the Fed's historical capacity to hike an economy into recession as a genuine tail risk that could force a more meaningful reset.

Midterms and the Next Move

The next FOMC meeting falls on 27-28 October 2026, roughly a week before the November US midterm elections. Pelaez said he would be surprised to see the Fed hike again that close to the vote, and expects headlines in the run-up to the election to lean toward de-escalating geopolitical tensions rather than adding fresh volatility. Both guests agreed that a weak economy or an active foreign conflict rarely helps an incumbent party at the polls.

With drilling results and financing news largely wrapped up for the year, Pelaez and Macpherson head into roughly ten combined days at the Precious Metals Summit in Beaver Creek and the Mining Forum Americas in Colorado Springs. The pair framed this year's conference cycle as distinct from the prior two: 2024's summit came as capital was only beginning to flow back into the sector, and 2025's followed the first wave of deployment, while this year arrives with most companies already funded.

That shifts the question, in Pelaez's telling, from who will secure financing to which management teams can convert existing balance sheets into visible project progress. He described the priority as identifying the next credible large-cap-ready development story, particularly in copper, where Olive has been actively adding exposure since Arizona Sonoran Copper, previously the fund's second-largest holding, was acquired. The pair said they had not yet found a like-for-like replacement.

The Case for Revisiting Names

Beyond meetings with existing holdings, both guests emphasised the value of sitting through unfamiliar company presentations, where back-to-back comparisons can surface opportunities not yet in the portfolio. Pelaez pointed to Bravo Mining as an example: Olive first encountered the company at a prior Beaver Creek summit, judged its valuation too rich at the time, and only began buying once the price came down, a position the fund has held in varying weight ever since.

The pair also discussed Gladiator Metals, a Yukon-focused copper name Olive has been adding to its book, while cautioning that new candidates could yet displace it if a stronger comparable emerges during the conference circuit. Both stressed that this openness should extend to companies an investor may have previously dismissed over valuation, jurisdiction, or management concerns, arguing that this cycle's greater capital availability has changed the calculus for many previously passed-over names.

TL;DR

Olive Resource Capital's Samuel Pelaez and Derek Macpherson called the Fed's unanimous 25 basis point hike to 3.75-4.00% fully priced in, with gold's muted reaction reflecting a real-rate, not nominal-rate, relationship that keeps their long-term precious metals thesis intact. Heading into the Precious Metals Summit and Mining Forum Americas, the pair are focused on identifying which funded companies can convert capital into news flow, the next copper story to replace Arizona Sonoran Copper in the portfolio and previously dismissed names worth revisiting.

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