Companies to Watch in 2026: Copper Supply Crisis Deepens: 600,000 Tonnes Needed Annually as Price Hit Record High

• Copper markets entered 2026 with record prices above $6.15 per pound driven by structural supply deficits, as industry requires 600,000-700,000 tonnes of new annual supply while project approvals run below 300,000 tonnes for three consecutive years.
• Electrification demand is accelerating dramatically with global electricity demand growing substantially exceeding overall energy demand growth, as electric vehicles, renewable infrastructure, and artificial intelligence create unprecedented copper requirements now representing 30% of total demand.
• Supply constraints intensify as mature industry economics demonstrate extreme capital intensity, with major copper-producing regions requiring massive investments simply to maintain current production levels rather than achieve meaningful growth.
• Near-surface, high-grade copper discoveries in established mining jurisdictions offer superior project economics through reduced strip ratios, lower capital requirements, and faster development timelines, with several projects demonstrating bulk-tonnage potential at grades significantly above typical porphyry averages.
• Geographic concentration of viable new supply in jurisdictions with supportive regulatory frameworks and existing infrastructure creates strategic advantages, while permitting and social license challenges in other regions limit the industry's ability to respond to accelerating demand through traditional exploration and development pathways.

The copper market entered 2026 with fundamentals that have not aligned this favourably for explorers and developers in over a decade. Record copper prices above $6.15 per pound, structural supply deficits, and accelerating electrification demand have created conditions where new discoveries and resource expansions carry exceptional strategic value.

Simultaneously, a cohort of companies operating in Chile—the world's largest copper-producing nation—and established mining jurisdictions like Quebec are delivering drilling results that demonstrate both the scale and grade required to matter in a market demanding 600,000-700,000 tonnes of new annual supply. These developments occur as copper's role in the energy transition intensifies, with electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure, and artificial intelligence driving unprecedented demand for the metal.

Supply Constraints Drive Price Outlook

Industry analysis by Merlin Marr-Johnson, CEO of Fitzroy Minerals, provides critical context for evaluating copper opportunities. Despite nominal copper price strength above $5.8/lb, real copper prices have declined 80% from historical peaks when measured in gold reflecting nearly two decades of subdued demand growth following the 2008 financial crisis.

This changed fundamentally as electrification accelerated. The International Energy Agency reported global electricity demand grew 4.3% in 2024, which signals copper's increasing importance. Electrification and decarbonization now represent approximately 30% of total copper demand, with BHP projecting demand growth at 2.6% annually through 2035.

As Marr-Johnson states,

"When you start adding in the demand um for the AI uh revolution data centers electrification we're looking at the need for 600,000 to 700,000 tons."

...and supply cannot keep pace. The industry lost approximately 500,000 to 800,000 tons of annual capacity in 2024 through various disruptions. In a 24-million-ton annual market, baseline growth of 2% requires 480,000 tons of new supply yearly, with electrification pushing requirements to 600,000-700,000 tons annually. However, data show project approvals below 300,000 tons annually for the past three years likely continuing through 2025.

Merlin Marr-Johnson, CEO of Fitzroy Minerals & Copper Market Commentator

Copper Discovery Momentum - Ones to watch in 2026

Fitzroy Minerals: Buen Retiro, Caballos & Candelaria Analogues

Fitzroy Minerals reported results from its Caballos copper project, with drill hole CAB-DDH004A intersecting 176 m at 0.31% Cu, 249 ppm Mo, 0.04 g/t Au (0.47% CuEq) from 156 m. President and CEO Merlin Marr-Johnson stated:

"Fitzroy is intersecting copper mineralization in two projects with scale in the world's leading copper-producing country, as copper prices reach record highs. I am confident that 2026 will be a transformative and hugely exciting year for the Company as we meet our discovery and de-risking goals."

At Buen Retiro, a site visit by SEG Visiting Lecturer Dr. Irene del Real Contreras provided valuable geological context as mineralization seen at Buen Retiro is analogous to that of Candelaria which also hosted in the Upper Pucobre Formation. This comparison matters significantly, as Candelaria ranks among Chile's most successful copper deposits.

La Verde Expands Near Costa Fuego Hub

Hot Chili's La Verde discovery at the company's flagship Costa Fuego project, continues demonstrating bulk-tonnage potential with near-surface mineralization. The company's third reported diamond drillhole from its phase two program returned a whopping 495 metres grading 0.38% copper and 0.10 g/t gold from just 3 metres depth including a higher-grade 123-metre interval running 0.50% copper and 0.13 g/t gold.

Managing director Christian Easterday stated:

"Hot Chili is delighted to report these compelling assay results from La Verde, with more expected soon. Against a strong backdrop of record copper and gold prices, the reporting of wide, near-surface, copper-gold intercepts from a new major discovery underscores the strategic significance of La Verde to Hot Chili."

Costa Fuego comprises Cortadera, Productora, Alice, and San Antonio deposits, with combined resource of 798 million tonnes grading 0.45% copper equivalent, for 2.9 million tonnes of copper, 2.6 million ounces of gold, 12.9m ounces of silver and 68,000t of molybdenum. Impact modeling suggests La Verde could add significant open-pit material to the front end of Costa Fuego's proposed 20-year mine schedule and potentially extending mine life.

Cowley Demonstrates Continuity and Molybdenum Credits

Gladiator Metals' Cowley prospect in Chile delivered exceptional near-surface results from 32 drill holes totaling 8,072 metres including intersecting 92m @ 1.03% copper and 393 ppm molybdenum. CEO Jason Bontempo commented:

"These latest results from Cowley represent a significant step forward in our understanding of the system. Intersecting over 90 meters of 1.03% copper starting essentially from surface is an exceptional outcome that reinforces the near surface, high-grade nature of both Copper and Molybdenum, and the continuity of this system."

District Consolidation Around Valeriano

ATEX Resources announced strategic expansion of its land package adjacent to the Valeriano project, consolidating over 8,600 hectares through staking and public auction. This increased ATEX's total district position by over 50% to approximately 25,000 hectares, including two defined porphyry targets ('Pachuy' and 'Chollay') that include confirmatory work completed by historical operators.

President and CEO Ben Pullinger emphasized:

"ATEX has established Valeriano as the largest high-grade porphyry project in Chile in over a decade and initial exploration of these new targets has identified similar features including the potential for breccia bodies that will be explored as part of initial exploration."

The expanded land position strengthens ATEX's presence in the Valeriano district, which includes Antofagasta's El Encierro project and Codelco's El Torrente project, demonstrating major company interest in the geological trend.

Oxide Extensions at Pampa Medina

Marimaca Copper announced results from Phase II drilling at Pampa Medina, located approximately 28km east of the company's Marimaca Oxide Deposit. North-east drill holes intersected 162m of 0.61% Cu in oxides from 220m, including 36m of 1.04% Cu from 228m with a high-grade zone of 2m of 2.02% Cu from 242m.

VP Exploration Sergio Rivera commented:

"Our understanding of this unique deposit is constantly improving as we move into the Phase II exploration program. In addition to the exciting sulphide target, there is a compelling opportunity to expand the known oxide mineralization at Pampa. We expect these oxides to be highly complementary to our existing resources at the Marimaca Oxide Deposit with clear potential for both scale and mine life expansion."

Rivera explained that the previous interpretation of the north-east areas of Pampa Medina indicated low potential for mineralization given significant uplifting of the sedimentary sequences to the east. Marimaca is also currently completing Inductively Coupled Plasma (ICP) assaying for its drilling completed to date at Pampa Medina to examine the potential for silver mineralization, particularly in higher grade sulphide zones.

Quebec Delivering Resource Expansion

While Chile dominates global copper production, Abitibi Metals demonstrated that significant copper resources are advancing in established mining jurisdictions. The company announced an updated mineral resource estimate for its B26 polymetallic deposit in Quebec's Abitibi Greenstone Belt, incorporating 42,980 metres of drilling across 37 holes, 16 wedges, and 1 hole extension.

Indicated resources expanded to 13.0M containing 340 million pounds Cu, 332 Mlbs Zn, 184,000 ounces Au and 12.8 million ounces Ag or 595 Mlbs of CuEq while inferred resources grew significantly to 12.3Mt, a 72% increase.

CEO Jonathon Deluce stated:

"Since 2023, our goal has been to establish Abitibi Metals as a significant critical minerals company in the Abitibi Greenstone Belt, and B26 sits at the center of that strategy. When we optioned the project, our objective was clear: demonstrate scale without compromising grade. This update materially exceeds that goal. With more than 25 million tonnes now defined across both resource categories—representing a 124% increase since the project was optioned to SOQUEM and the 2018 MRE—B26 has crossed an important milestone."

Deluce emphasized that mineralization remains open laterally and at depth, offering clear potential for continued resource growth with a fully funded 40,000-metre drill program underway positioning the company to advance the next phase of growth while maintaining flexibility.

The Investment Thesis for Copper

• Structural supply-demand imbalance creates exceptional strategic value for new discoveries and resource expansions. Industry requires 600,000-700,000 tonnes of new copper annually to meet baseline growth and electrification demands, yet project approvals have run below 300,000 tonnes for three consecutive years, creating an environment where companies delivering economic copper resources command premium valuations.
• Record copper prices reflect fundamental tightening with further upside required to incentivize supply. Copper reached $6.15 per pound in early 2026, yet analysts project prices must reach $20,000-30,000 per tonne ($9+ per pound) to justify the extreme capital intensity demonstrated by Chile's $83 billion investment yielding only 100,000 tonnes of production growth over the next decade.
• Geographic concentration favors projects in established mining jurisdictions with supportive regulatory frameworks. Chile produces 5.4 million tonnes annually (24% of global output) and remains committed to mining development while permitting and social license constraints in other jurisdictions limit the industry's ability to respond to price signals.
• Near-surface, high-grade mineralization delivers superior project economics and faster development timelines. Discoveries intersecting significant copper mineralization from shallow depths dramatically improve economics through reduced strip ratios, lower capital intensity for open-pit scenarios, and accelerated paths to production compared to deeper deposits requiring underground mining methods.
• Electrification drives structural demand acceleration beyond historical growth rates. Global electricity demand grew with electrification and decarbonization now representing 30% of total copper demand and electric vehicles requiring 2-3 times more copper than internal combustion vehicles.
• Geological analogues to world-class deposits reduce exploration risk and validate development potential. Projects demonstrating similar geological characteristics, structural settings, and mineralization styles to established producing deposits provide compelling investment cases through de-risked exploration models and proven development pathways in analogous geological environments.

TL;DR

Copper entered 2026 with fundamentals not seen in over a decade: record prices above $6.15/lb, structural supply deficits with industry needing 600,000-700,000 tonnes annually versus project approvals below 300,000 tonnes for three consecutive years, and accelerating electrification demand. Recent drilling results from Chilean explorers and Quebec developers demonstrate significant near-surface, high-grade mineralization in established mining jurisdictions, with companies delivering copper intercepts from shallow depths. Mature industry economics require prices reaching $20,000-30,000 per tonne to incentivize necessary supply, as demonstrated by Chile's $83 billion investment yielding only 100,000 tonnes of growth. The strategic question for investors is not whether copper prices remain elevated—supply-demand fundamentals suggest sustained strength—but rather which companies can deliver economic copper resources in jurisdictions capable of supporting development presenting compelling opportunities for strategic acquirers and investors seeking leveraged exposure to the copper supply deficit.

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