Silver Might Disappoint Extreme Expections in 2026, Platinum Market Deficit Position for Outperformance

• Projection on the global economy will surprise to the upside in 2026, driven by continued liquidity injections from central banks and expansionary fiscal policies across major economies, creating a supportive environment for precious metals despite consensus bearishness.
• Platinum emerges as the firm's top precious metals pick for 2026, supported by persistent market deficits, tight physical supply, and anticipated rollbacks of aggressive electric vehicle mandates that should sustain internal combustion engine production and autocatalyst demand.
• Executives controversially expect silver to disappoint investors in 2026 despite positive fundamentals, citing overcrowded bullish sentiment and technical analysis suggesting the metal's largest advance has already occurred, though they anticipate a near-term blowoff top before year-end underperformance.
• Gold's role as a portfolio diversifier remains intact despite moderated return expectations following 2025's exceptional 60% advance, with macroeconomic support from central bank buying and monetary accommodation continuing even as commodity market leadership potentially rotates towards industrial metals.
• Olive Resource Capital maintains significant platinum-palladium exposure and highlights diversified mining companies like Ivanhoe Mines as preferred vehicles for precious metals investment, combining operational catalysts with multiple commodity streams to provide leveraged exposure whilst managing single-commodity risk.

As investors position portfolios for 2026, the precious metals complex presents a nuanced opportunity set that defies conventional wisdom. In their latest Compass podcast episode, Olive Resource Capital's leadership team—Sam Pelaez, President, CEO & CIO, alongside Executive Chairman Derek Macpherson—delivers an unvarnished assessment of commodity markets entering the new year. The analysis challenges several consensus views whilst identifying specific opportunities within precious metals that warrant investor attention, offering institutional and retail investors alike a framework for navigating what both executives anticipate will be a year of economic resilience and commodity strength.

The Macroeconomic Foundation: Liquidity and Growth

The investment case for precious metals in 2026 begins with Olive's fundamental macroeconomic thesis: the global economy will outperform bearish expectations. Pelaez articulated this view clearly:

"The global economy surprises to the upside. The general consensus is bearish. The GDP now for the Atlanta Fed is over 3%. The Treasury and the Fed are going to and are injecting liquidity right now. China is on an expansionary fiscal policy."

This liquidity backdrop creates favourable conditions for hard assets. Macpherson reinforced this perspective, noting the persistence of government deficit spending globally:

"The rate that governments are deficit spending globally, China's got a trillion dollars worth of stimulus, the US is spending money like it's going out of style as Canada is. The Europeans all went into deficit spending to fund their defense efforts."

For precious metals investors, this macroeconomic framework suggests continued support for the asset class, even as leadership may rotate amongst specific commodities. The liquidity-driven environment that propelled gold to record highs in 2025 shows no signs of abating, whilst industrial precious metals stand to benefit from economic activity exceeding expectations.

Macpherson added, "I don't think that we have the recession, but that's actually going to be really good for commodity markets because what's driving that is liquidity."

Platinum-Palladium Complex

Within the precious metals spectrum, Macpherson identified platinum as his top commodity pick for 2026, presenting a compelling case based on supply-demand fundamentals and policy shifts.

"The market's in deficit. It's a small market and it's tight. We've already seen that. It's already had a decent move, frankly. [...] we're going to see, and you start to see in the news, some of these EV mandates are going to get rolled off. More ICE engines by 2030 or 2035 are going to evaporate. And so, when that happens, that's also going to be very good for platinum, that complex."

This view reflects recognition that the automotive sector's trajectory is shifting. As governments reassess aggressive electric vehicle timelines, internal combustion engine production—and consequently, platinum and palladium demand for catalytic converters—appears more resilient than many market participants anticipated. The tight physical market conditions, combined with potential policy support for traditional automotive technologies, create a favourable setup for price appreciation.

Macpherson confirmed Olive's positioning:

"We have, we are pretty positioned in platinum palladium." For investors seeking precious metals exposure beyond gold and silver, the PGM complex offers differentiated drivers and potentially asymmetric returns in 2026.

Gold's Continued Strength with Moderated Expectations

Whilst neither executive selected gold as their top-performing commodity for 2026, both implicitly acknowledged its continued relevance to precious metals portfolios. The measured outlook does not signal bearishness, but rather recognition that gold's extraordinary 2025 advance—driven by central bank buying, geopolitical tensions, and monetary policy shifts—may be difficult to replicate.

However, the macroeconomic conditions supporting gold remain intact. Pelaez's observation about global economic expansion does not preclude continued gold strength, particularly if his thesis proves correct:

"In my view, if gold ceases to be the leader and hands that over to copper, iron ore, oil, who knows, then there's going to be less speculation in the precious metals market."

For conservative investors, gold's role as a portfolio diversifier and store of value remains undiminished, even if leadership within commodities rotates towards industrial metals and energy.

Silver Expectations in an Overcrowded Trade

Perhaps the most controversial element of Olive's precious metals outlook concerns silver. Both executives independently identified silver as likely to disappoint investors in 2026—a view that runs counter to widespread bullish sentiment. Pelaez explained his reasoning:

"Every time I go on YouTube or I read newsletters, every person on the planet seems to be uber-ultra-mega bullish silver. I am not saying silver is going to go down necessarily, I'm sidetracking the question by saying it's going to be the most disappointing because the expectations for it are so high."

He continued with technical context:

"We keep hearing about this silver-gold ratio. But in my view, if you look at the last 25 years of volume weighted data, silver has already corrected up to the average. The biggest move in silver has already occurred and it occurred literally over the past eight weeks."

Macpherson concurred whilst acknowledging tactical opportunities, elaborating on the technical pattern:

"We will get a blowoff top in silver at a higher price than where we are right now. However, at the end of the year, when we look back on a 12-month period, silver will have underperformed other commodities [...] This is typically what happens with silver. It had a run and then all of a sudden it spiked and it spent a week or a month at that spike level and then kind of rolled off."

This nuanced view suggests investors should maintain silver exposure for near-term momentum but prepare for volatility and potential underperformance relative to other commodities as the year progresses. Macpherson confirmed:

"We have silver positioning. We expect silver to go higher in the medium term, but if you look at it at year end next year, everyone's going to be like, 'Oh, silver was there.'"

Portfolio Construction: Olive's Precious Metals Positioning

Understanding how sophisticated investors like Olive Resource Capital position within precious metals provides valuable insight for individual investors. The fund maintains meaningful exposure to the PGM complex, as Macpherson noted, whilst balancing expectations across the precious metals spectrum.

The team highlighted Ivanhoe Mines as a top portfolio holding for 2026, partly due to its platinum production coming online. This operational catalyst, combined with Ivanhoe's copper assets, exemplifies how investors can gain precious metals exposure through diversified mining companies with multiple commodity streams.

Pelaez explained: "Their phase one of the PGM project is coming online at a perfect time when the market is moving higher."\

Black Swan Events

Precious metals traditionally benefit from geopolitical uncertainty, making potential resolution of conflicts particularly relevant to 2026 positioning. Pelaez addressed the Ukraine situation:

"I think we get some resolution in Ukraine. People think that it sinks the oil market because it brings back the Russian crude into the market and natural gas. I actually think the opposite. I think you get that peace dividend type of rally where the big subject of discussion is the reconstruction of Ukraine."

For precious metals, reduced geopolitical risk premiums could initially pressure prices, but the economic stimulus from reconstruction efforts and normalisation of trade flows may prove supportive. Macpherson added crucial context about Russian commodity flows:

"Russia is out there selling as much as they can of whatever they can at a discount. All that Russian oil is going to China. It's going to India. It's still in the market. All of a sudden, maybe Russia goes, 'Hey, you know what? Maybe we shouldn't sell our oil at $15 or $20 a barrel discount to everybody else.'"

This normalisation process could support commodity prices broadly, including industrial precious metals, whilst reducing some of the fear premium in gold.

The Investment Thesis for Precious Metals

• Allocate to Platinum-Palladium Complex: Market deficits, tight supply, and potential EV mandate rollbacks create favourable conditions for PGM appreciation. Consider exposure through physical holdings or mining equities with significant PGM production.
• Maintain Gold as Portfolio Foundation: Despite moderated return expectations relative to 2025, gold's monetary characteristics and central bank demand support continued allocation as portfolio insurance and store of value.
• Tactical Silver Positioning: Maintain exposure to capture potential near-term blowoff top, but prepare to reduce positions if silver approaches historical resistance levels. Monitor sentiment indicators for signs of speculative excess.
• Diversify Through Mining Equities: Companies like Ivanhoe Mines with multiple precious metals streams offer leveraged exposure whilst diversifying single-commodity risk. Focus on producers bringing new capacity online in 2026.
• Rebalance Based on Relative Value: As commodity leadership potentially shifts from precious to industrial metals, regularly assess relative valuations within the precious metals complex. Be prepared to rotate towards undervalued segments.
• Monitor Liquidity Conditions: The macroeconomic thesis supporting precious metals depends on continued monetary and fiscal accommodation. Track central bank policies and government spending trajectories for early warning signals.
• Consider Contrarian Opportunities: Extremely bearish sentiment on commodities like nickel may create opportunities in companies with precious metals by-product credits. Evaluate miners with diversified revenue streams.

Conclusion: A Year of Selectivity and Discipline

The precious metals landscape for 2026 demands selectivity rather than broad-based enthusiasm. Whilst the macroeconomic environment—characterised by persistent liquidity, expanding fiscal deficits, and economic resilience—provides a supportive backdrop, investors must distinguish between commodities with fundamental tailwinds versus those driven primarily by sentiment. Platinum and palladium emerge as Olive Resource Capital's highest-conviction precious metals opportunities, supported by supply deficits and potential policy shifts. Gold maintains its portfolio role despite moderated return expectations, whilst silver requires tactical management given overcrowded positioning and historical volatility patterns. The key insight from Olive's leadership is that 2026 success in precious metals investing will reward those who combine macroeconomic awareness with commodity-specific fundamentals, maintaining discipline even when consensus views appear overwhelming.

TL;DR

Olive Resource Capital expects 2026 to reward selective precious metals investors rather than broad-based enthusiasm. Platinum offers the best risk-reward profile due to supply deficits and potential EV mandate rollbacks favouring internal combustion engines. Gold maintains its portfolio insurance role despite moderated return expectations after 2025's 60% gain. Silver faces overcrowded positioning and likely disappoints despite near-term momentum, having already corrected to long-term averages. The macroeconomic backdrop remains supportive through persistent global liquidity injections and economic resilience, but success requires distinguishing fundamental drivers from sentiment-driven positioning. Diversified mining equities with multiple precious metals streams provide leveraged exposure whilst managing single-commodity risk. Monitor liquidity conditions and be prepared to rebalance as commodity leadership potentially rotates from precious to industrial metals.

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