Unlocking Billions from Mining Waste: CoTec's Tech-Driven Revolution Targets 20 Assets by 2030

• CoTec aims to build a next-generation mining company by applying six proprietary technologies to waste sites and tailings, targeting close to 20 assets by 2030 with multi-billion dollar NPV potential
• CEO Julian Treger and the board control 60% ownership of a company currently valued at $130 million CAD, with a stated goal of achieving over $1 billion valuation through strategic waste asset acquisition at minimal cost
• The company's first iron ore project in Quebec (Cartier mine) was acquired for $2 million with projected NPV of $130-150 million and only $60 million capex, while saving the Quebec government $100 million in rehabilitation liabilities
• CoTec's rare earth magnet recycling business, where it holds 60% of the US operations, targets three production hubs each valued at $600 million NPV, with first revenues expected in 2027
• The company plans to fund development primarily at the asset level rather than diluting shareholders at the parent company, leveraging government rehabilitation funds and strategic partnerships to minimise equity issuance

CoTec Holdings has emerged as an unconventional player in the mining sector, positioning itself to capture value from an overlooked segment: the vast inventory of mining waste and tailings that legacy operators left behind. Under the leadership of CEO Julian Treger, a veteran natural resources investor who previously transformed Anglo Pacific's earnings from $5 million to over $100 million during his eight-year tenure, the company represents a fundamental rethinking of how mining companies can be structured and capitalised in the modern era. With insider ownership of 60% and a deliberate strategy to avoid excessive dilution, CoTec is banking on technology and brownfield waste sites to deliver outsized returns to shareholders.

Strategic Rationale Behind Waste Asset Targeting

Treger's thesis rests on two observable market inefficiencies. First, despite billions invested in research and development by major mining companies over decades, fundamental extraction processes "are still done the way they were done 50, 70 years ago". Second, waste materials tailings, slag heaps, and abandoned mine sites trade at extreme discounts to their metallic content because conventional technologies cannot economically extract value. CoTec's solution involves acquiring proprietary process technologies that can unlock value from materials that are too hard, too fine, or too low-grade for traditional methods.

The company's origins trace to a Canadian shell company trading at 12 cents per share with $90 million in tax losses. After taking control, Treger assembled a board including Tom Albanese, former CEO of Rio Tinto, and John McGagh, who ran Rio Ventures. This team evaluated approximately 400 technologies globally before selecting six for investment across three commodity verticals: iron ore, copper, and metallics including tungsten, manganese, vanadium, nickel, and tin.

Technology Portfolio Composition

CoTec's technology investments were deliberately targeted at mid-stage development rather than laboratory experiments. Treger emphasised that "we never invested in lab stage technologies" but rather focused on opportunities at technology readiness levels five through nine, where proof-of-concept had been established but commercial scaling required capital and operational expertise. The ownership structures vary: some technologies involve direct equity stakes, others provide exclusive licensing rights for specific commodities or geographies, and several involve collaborative development partnerships.

For iron ore applications, CoTec controls technologies that concentrate fine materials and pelletise them for commercial use. The copper vertical employs technologies capable of cracking hard rocks and leaching super low-grade materials more effectively than conventional heap leaching. The metallics segment relies on concentration and pelletization technologies applicable to a range of strategic minerals. A fourth business line, rare earth magnet recycling, utilises technology developed by Birmingham University over a decade at a cost exceeding $100 million, creating a streamlined process for recovering rare earth elements from e-waste before shredding.

Asset Development Pipeline with Proven Economics

The Cartier mine tailings project in Quebec exemplifies CoTec's acquisition and development model. The site, which ceased operations in the 1980s, contains approximately 120 million tons of tailings that CoTec agreed to purchase for $2 million. After drilling and updated feasibility work, management projects an NPV between $130 million and $150 million with capital expenditures of $60 million. Critically, the $60 million capex requirement can be sourced from Quebec financiers interested in reducing government rehabilitation liabilities, which CoTec estimates will decline from $200 million to under $100 million upon project completion.

Treger described this as a "cookie cutter" model suitable for replication across Canada, the United States, and Brazil. He noted that Canada alone has "over 10,000 closed mines with trillions of dollars of liabilities which the government can't afford," creating natural alignment between CoTec's profit motive and government objectives to remediate environmental hazards while recovering strategic materials. The economic structure generates multiple revenue streams, including metal sales, rehabilitation cost savings shared with government entities, and avoided future liability.

A second iron ore asset in Minnesota, acquired through a bankruptcy process, demonstrates the scalability potential. The property contains 2.6 billion tons of iron ore resources, existing tailings, a concentrator, and an anticipated pelletiser acquisition. Management estimates the NPV at $1 billion, with CoTec holding a 17% stake. Treger indicated the company would seek to raise capital for this project at an equity valuation of $400-500 million, representing a 30-40% discount to sum-of-parts rather than the 90% discount that would result from parent-level equity issuance.

Interview with Julian Treger, President & CEO of CoTec Holdings

Rare Earth Magnet Recycling Business

The magnet recycling vertical has gained strategic importance due to China's creation of a blacklist prohibiting rare earth magnet sales to certain American defense contractors. CoTec owns 60% of the US operations and 20% of the global business, targeting three production hubs in Texas, Nevada, and South Carolina with each facility projected to generate approximately $600 million in NPV. The first hub is under construction with production anticipated in 2027.

Treger confirmed "extensive dialogue with the Department of War and the White House," positioning recycling as a "very good plan B insurance policy" with fewer technical challenges and execution risks than primary rare earth mining. The technology's advantage lies in processing e-waste before shredding, preserving the molecular structure of rare earth compounds and reducing processing steps. Beyond defense applications, management is exploring opportunities to recover tungsten, vanadium, and manganese from legacy waste sites in collaboration with the Department of Interior and EPA.

Capital Structure Preserves Shareholder Value

CoTec's financing philosophy prioritises value accretion over empire building. Treger stated bluntly, 

"We're not interested in earning salaries or having an empire. What we're interested is becoming incredibly rich." 

reflecting the board's 60% ownership stake and aversion to dilution at depressed valuations. Rather than raising capital at the parent company level when shares trade at 90% discounts to NAV, management intends to finance development primarily at the asset level.

This approach allows CoTec to function as an incubator, acquiring waste sites for nominal sums "buying the Lac Jeannine site for $2 million and then bringing in an investor at $60 million or $70 million" and capturing value through minority stakes while deriving marked-to-market gains. Government rehabilitation funds, particularly in Canada where provincial and federal programs support mine closure remediation, provide non-dilutive capital for a portion of project costs. Treger acknowledged limited equity issuance will occur but emphasised it would be measured and strategic rather than growth-at-any-cost.

Competitive Positioning and Barriers to Entry

The tailings reprocessing sector remains fragmented with few scaled competitors, though CoTec anticipates increased activity. Treger welcomed competition, noting "the world's a big place" and estimating 20,000 closed mines in Queensland or New South Wales alone beyond Canada's 10,000. CoTec's competitive advantages include proprietary technology access protected by patents, insider capital enabling opportunistic acquisitions without external fundraising pressure, and first-mover positioning in specific jurisdictions.

The technology selection process itself serves as a filter. By reviewing 400 candidates and investing in only six after rigorous technical and commercial due diligence, CoTec has built what management believes are "category killers" in their respective applications. Patent protection provides legal exclusivity, while know-how and operational expertise accumulated through pilot-scale development create practical barriers. As Treger explained, 

"You can only do the land grab if you've got the technologies which are the key." 

Suggesting a window exists before competitors replicate the integrated technology-asset model.

Development Timeline Balancing Speed with Validation

CoTec targets first revenues in 2027 from the magnet recycling business, followed by expanded magnet production and Lac Jeannine cash flows in 2028. While Treger acknowledged this timeline "doesn't sound very quick for the common investor," he positioned it as "warp speed" relative to the mining industry average of 29 years from discovery to production. The brownfield nature of waste sites reduces permitting timelines and environmental assessment complexity compared to greenfield exploration.

Execution risks center on technology performance at commercial scale, asset acquisition pace, and capital availability. Management conducts laboratory testing of geology samples with specific technologies before committing to acquisitions, providing technical validation prior to financial deployment. 

However, Treger noted that even after acquiring a technology, "it probably takes one to two years to find the first opportunity," indicating meaningful time lags between technology deployment rights and revenue generation. The company's reliance on six technologies across multiple commodity verticals creates concentration risk if any technology fails to scale or encounters unforeseen metallurgical challenges.

Long-Term Vision Targeting Multi-Billion Dollar Scale

Management articulates an ambition to assemble 20 waste assets by 2030, up from five currently in development. Extrapolating from the Cartier mine's projected $130-150 million NPV achieved with minimal acquisition cost, Treger suggested that "if you do that 20 times, you're talking 2 to 3 billion" in aggregate value. The magnet recycling business alone, with just three sites at $600 million NPV each and CoTec's 60% ownership, would contribute another billion dollars to enterprise value. The company frames itself as building 

"A new model mining company which is much more nimble, low cost, and uses technology in a way that no mining companies are doing so far."

This positioning appeals to investors seeking exposure to strategic materials critical for energy transition and defense applications, while avoiding the capital intensity, permitting delays, and geological risk associated with traditional mining development. Treger's track record of converting $500 million in natural resource investments into $3 billion in value, including the transformation of Mantos Copper from a $300 million acquisition into a stake worth approximately $3 billion, provides credibility to the value creation thesis.

The Investment Thesis for CoTec Holdings

• Proprietary Technology Access: Exclusive rights to six patent-protected processing technologies selected from 400 candidates, specifically targeting materials too hard, fine, or low-grade for conventional mining methods
• Asymmetric Risk-Return Profile: Asset acquisitions for minimal capital ($2 million for Cartier mine) generating NPVs of $130-150 million with government-funded capex, creating 50-75x return potential on acquisition cost
• Government Liability Arbitrage: Shared savings from reduced rehabilitation liabilities create aligned incentives with federal and provincial governments holding trillions in legacy mine closure obligations
• Strategic Materials Exposure: Portfolio spans critical minerals (rare earths, tungsten, vanadium, manganese) and base metals (iron ore, copper) essential for defense, electrification, and domestic manufacturing
• Insider Alignment: Management and board own 60% of shares with explicit value maximization mandate rather than salary-driven empire building, targeting 10x appreciation from current $130 million CAD valuation
• Asset-Level Financing: Capital raising at subsidiary level at 30-40% discounts to NPV rather than parent company dilution at 90% discounts preserves shareholder value accretion
• Near-Term Catalysts: First revenues targeted for 2027 from magnet recycling, with multiple feasibility studies, government agreements, and asset acquisitions anticipated over next 18 months
• Scalable Cookie-Cutter Model: Repeatable acquisition and development process targeting 20 assets by 2030, leveraging 10,000+ closed mines in Canada and 20,000+ in Australia as addressable market
• Reduced Development Risk: Brownfield waste sites eliminate exploration risk, reduce permitting timelines, and benefit from existing infrastructure compared to greenfield mining projects
• First-Mover Land Grab: Patent protection and early-stage positioning enable CoTec to secure premier waste assets before competitors replicate the integrated technology-asset model

Macro Thematic Analysis

The global transition toward electrification, renewable energy infrastructure, and geopolitical supply chain reshoring has created structural demand for strategic minerals at precisely the moment when conventional mining faces extended development timelines averaging 29 years and ESG-driven permitting headwinds. CoTec's waste reprocessing model addresses this supply constraint by unlocking existing above-ground stockpiles of critical materials with dramatically compressed timelines and reduced environmental footprints. 

The convergence of government rehabilitation liabilities exceeding trillions of dollars, China's weaponisation of rare earth supply chains against Western defense contractors, and breakthrough process technologies capable of economically treating previously uneconomic materials creates a unique window for disruptive business models. As Treger emphasised, "this is a very important area which can help the west generate the strategic materials that it needs in this global battle" much faster than traditional mining.

TL;DR

CoTec is acquiring mining waste sites for minimal capital ($2M for 120M ton Cartier tailings) and applying proprietary technologies to generate $130-150M NPVs per asset, targeting 20 sites by 2030 for $2-3B aggregate value. With 60% insider ownership, asset-level financing to avoid dilution, and first revenues in 2027 from rare earth magnet recycling serving defense contractors, the company offers leveraged exposure to critical minerals with compressed timelines and government-aligned economics. Management's track record of converting $500M into $3B in prior ventures underpins credibility for the stated goal of 10x appreciation from the current $130M CAD valuation.

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