Advancing $1.2B NPV Copper-Cobalt Project in Premier South Australian Mining District

• Coda Minerals is a South Australian copper-cobalt-silver explorer with a flagship project called Elizabeth Creek, containing approximately 800,000 tons of copper, 30,000 tons of cobalt, and 28 million ounces of silver in JORC resources.
• The company has completed a scoping study showing a pre-tax NPV of $1.2 billion ($802 million post-tax) based on $4.20/lb copper price and is moving into pre-feasibility study (PFS) phase.
• Current efforts focus on reducing capex to improve project economics, with metallurgical optimisation potentially saving hundreds of millions by replacing conventional processing circuits.
• Management believes the project benefits from excellent infrastructure (power, water, roads), supportive regulatory environment in South Australia, and ESG advantages for its cobalt production compared to DRC sources.
• With $4.5 million cash, Coda is being capital-efficient, focusing on advancements that improve economics rather than expensive drilling, while waiting for improved market conditions for development-stage mining companies.

Coda Minerals is advancing its Elizabeth Creek copper-cobalt-silver project in South Australia, approximately six hours north of Adelaide and adjacent to BHP's Carrapateena Copper Project. In a recent interview, CEO and Executive Director Chris Stevens outlined the company's strategy, project economics, and path forward in the current challenging market for resource development companies. With copper prices showing strength and global supply challenges intensifying, Coda is positioning itself as a development-ready project with strong fundamentals in a tier-one jurisdiction.

Project Overview & Resource Base

Elizabeth Creek hosts significant mineral resources containing approximately 800,000 tons of copper, 30,000 tons of cobalt, and 28 million ounces of silver primarily in JORC Indicated resources. The project consists of three primary deposits - two open pits (MG14 and Windabout) that will provide early production, and the larger Emmie Bluff underground deposit, which represents the flagship resource.

"We have contained copper equivalent tonnage of over a million tons. That's about 800,000 tons of copper, 30,000 tons of cobalt, and about 28 million ounces of silver primarily in JORC Indicated resources."

The resource grade stands at approximately 1.9% copper equivalent, which Stevens suggests could potentially be optimised to over 2% in future studies. This grade compares favourably to many competing projects, with Stevens noting that 

"Some of the really large projects that you see kicking around in terms of contained tonnage have a lower head grade going into the mill than our waste dump."

Economic Studies & Development Strategy

The company has completed a scoping study that demonstrates robust economics with a pre-tax NPV of $1.2 billion ($802 million post-tax) based on a copper price of $4.20 per pound. Stevens emphasised that this price assumption is conservative compared to long-term forecasts, with copper prices having rarely fallen below this level even during recent market volatility.

Stevens highlighted the company's pragmatic approach to development: 

"We've released 3 scoping study updates. We are about making this better - get yourself a good foundation that works technically. Then get a little bit more exotic. Then start trying new things and let's see how far we can push this to really drive the economics."

The project's capital expenditure is estimated at approximately A$680 million (around US$500 million including 30% contingency), with the financing requirement being lower at about A$550 million due to early revenue from the open pits. Annual production is projected at approximately 26,000-27,000 tons of copper and 1,300 tons of cobalt.

Metallurgical Optimisation & Cost Reduction

A key focus for Coda is optimising metallurgy to potentially reduce capital costs significantly. The company is investigating alternatives to conventional flotation and Albion processing circuits, which could save hundreds of millions in capex.

"We are investigating ways to reduce the capex to better get hold of that cobalt. One has the potential to just replace the Albion, which would still be enormous; one has the potential to replace flotation and Albion. These are huge swings right now and have the potential to be game-changing for the project."

The company has been investigating whole ore leach options for some time as a potential processing alternative. Stevens emphasised that the cobalt mineralization at Elizabeth Creek is present as carrolite (a copper-cobalt sulfide), making it metallurgically favorable compared to many other cobalt resources globally.

Interview with CEO, Chris Stevens

Infrastructure & Jurisdictional Advantages

Elizabeth Creek benefits from excellent existing infrastructure. The project is located near the Stuart Highway, has a 133 KVA electrical substation on the property, access to the BHP haul road between the deposits, and will be near the Northern Water Pipeline currently under construction.

Stevens highlighted South Australia's advantages as a mining jurisdiction: 

"We're in South Australia, the only state in Australia that has a one-stop shop right through all approvals." 

He also noted the supportive relationships with traditional owners, who are experienced with mining operations due to BHP's nearby presence.

The project's location also provides significant ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) advantages, particularly for cobalt production. Stevens pointed out that "the ability to produce that cobalt in South Australia, the world's most renewable energy grid, wonderfully ESG-friendly location" creates a compelling alternative to DRC-sourced cobalt, which faces increasing regulatory and ethical scrutiny.

Current Market Position & Capital Management

Coda currently has approximately $4.5 million in cash, which Stevens notes is more than about 85% of ASX-listed mining companies relative to their market capitalization. This provides a runway for continued advancement of the project without immediate financing pressure.

The company is taking a disciplined approach to capital deployment in the current challenging market environment. 

"I've been reluctant to push the more expensive bits of feasibility that don't generate big news flow. " 

Stevens affirmed, this was not due to lack of confidence but rather prudent management in current market conditions. Instead, the company is focusing on advancing critical path items such as approvals and optimisation studies that can improve project economics, while maintaining operational efficiency with a small team of four full-time staff members.

Financing Strategy & Future Outlook

Stevens addressed the company's approach to future financing, emphasising quality over expediency: 

"I talk to a lot of funding groups regularly... We want to do the right funding deal."

The project's qualification for the Australian government's ‘Future Made in Australia’ policy could provide approximately $25 million in benefits on a post-tax NPV basis, with potential additional access to policy bank funds. Stevens also mentioned interest from groups focused on ESG aspects, particularly related to responsibly sourced cobalt.

Looking ahead, Stevens expressed confidence in copper market fundamentals: "The future dynamics of copper are very strong," noting that new discoveries are increasingly rare while mines are getting deeper, lower grade, and more challenging to develop. He believes Coda's combination of grade, scale, and jurisdiction makes it well-positioned as copper supply constraints intensify.

The Investment Thesis for Coda Minerals

• Substantial Resource Base: ~800,000 tons copper, 30,000 tons cobalt, and 28 million ounces silver at Elizabeth Creek, with 1.9% copper equivalent grade - higher than many competing projects.
• Robust Project Economics: Pre-tax NPV of $1.2 billion ($802 million post-tax) based on conservative $4.20/lb copper price assumption.
• Capital Efficiency: ~A$680 million capex with strong production profile (26-27K tons copper, 1,300 tons cobalt annually) and reduced initial capex due to early open pit production.
• Metallurgical Upside: Current studies on processing alternatives could significantly reduce capex by replacing conventional flotation and Albion circuits.
• Premium Jurisdiction: South Australia offers streamlined permitting, excellent infrastructure (power, water, roads), and supportive regulatory environment.
• ESG Advantage: Cobalt production from a stable jurisdiction with renewable energy grid provides ethical alternative to DRC sources as regulatory pressure increases.
• Experienced Team: Management and board members have collectively brought 17 mining projects into production, with specific expertise in feasibility and development.
• Strong Treasury Position: $4.5 million cash balance provides runway for continued advancement without immediate financing pressure.
• Copper Market Fundamentals: Limited new discoveries globally combined with declining grades at existing mines creates favourable supply-demand dynamics.
• Battery Metals Exposure: Project provides dual exposure to energy transition through both copper (electrification) and cobalt (battery storage).

Macro Thematic Analysis

The global copper market is facing unprecedented supply challenges against a backdrop of accelerating demand from electrification and renewable energy transition. New major copper discoveries have become increasingly rare, with most recent discoveries being deeper, lower-grade, or in challenging jurisdictions. This contrasts sharply with other battery metals like lithium or rare earths where new supply continues to emerge.

As Chris Stevens notes, "80% of the world's copper is produced by 20 companies," with just 5% coming from a single mine (Escondida). These established mines are experiencing grade decline, increasing depth, and rising production costs. Meanwhile, jurisdictional challenges in key producing regions like Peru further constrain supply growth.

The electrification trend is driving copper demand across multiple sectors – from EVs requiring 2-4× more copper than conventional vehicles to renewable energy installations, grid infrastructure upgrades, and energy storage. This creates persistent demand pressure that existing mines struggle to meet.

"When did you last hear about a great new discovery in copper versus nickel or lithium or rare earths? The future is going to be increasingly in these smaller deposits, lower capex, easier to get into, and very much part of that future supply."

This structural supply deficit positions well-located, development-ready projects like Elizabeth Creek to command premium valuations as copper prices respond to these fundamentals.