Q1 Free Cash Flow Hits $411M as Growth & Yield Align

• CEO Ian Cockerill implemented a four-pillar “4E” strategy—Employees, Excellence, Exploration, & Expansion—focused on operational efficiency, disciplined cost control, and organic growth.
• Q1 2025 delivered $411 million in free cash flow, with five consecutive quarters of improved performance and a dividend-plus-buyback strategy already surpassing last year’s returns.
• Endeavour is on track to grow production to 1.5Moz/year by 2030, primarily driven by the upcoming tier-one Assafou mine in Côte d’Ivoire with a projected AISC below $1,000/oz.
• Endeavour positions itself uniquely as both a leading dividend payer (~6% yield) and a growth producer, appealing to both income-focused and growth-oriented investors.
• Despite geopolitical concerns, Endeavour emphasises long-standing local relationships and operational stability, arguing that perceived risks in West Africa are increasingly outdated.

Endeavour Mining is one of West Africa’s leading gold producers, operating five mines across three jurisdictions and delivering approximately 1.2 million ounces of gold annually. In a recent interview, CEO Ian Cockerill provided deep insight into the company’s transformation under his leadership since taking over in January 2024.

With a disciplined focus on costs, cash flow, and a clear growth trajectory, Endeavour is reshaping its investor narrative. The company now straddles the rare dual identity of being both a high-yield dividend payer and a credible growth story.

Leadership Transition & Strategic Reset

Upon joining as CEO in January 2024, Ian Cockerill’s first priority was organisational stabilisation. A veteran with prior leadership at Gold Fields and board experience at BHP and Endeavour itself, Cockerill introduced a streamlined four-pillar strategy: Employees, Excellence, Exploration, and Expansion. He explained the importance of aligning talent and processes with long-term strategic goals.

“We needed a clear direction that everyone could follow.” 

Under the “Employees” pillar, staffing and leadership were realigned for better fit and execution. “Some people got shuffled around and put into new positions,” said Cockerill, emphasising meritocracy and alignment with core objectives.

Operational Excellence & Cost Discipline

Operational excellence became a cornerstone of Cockerill’s leadership. Cockerill underscored a fundamental approach to mining: “Profit equals revenue minus cost.” While gold prices are beyond control, production volume and cost efficiency are not.

Multiple grassroots-level initiatives have been introduced across all mines. Each operation maintains a "laundry list" of improvements with associated KPIs, performance targets, and cost-benefit analyses. 

“We’re seeing this accumulation in aggregate of all these initiatives playing out in terms of enhanced production and cost control.”

Importantly, Endeavour’s cost base has remained stable over the past six quarters despite inflationary pressures elsewhere in the industry. Initiatives such as centralised procurement have helped drive consistency in cost performance.

Exploration & the Assafou Discovery

Endeavour has long been recognised for its exploration success, having discovered close to 20 million ounces in the past seven to eight years at a discovery cost below $25 per ounce. Cockerill reinforced that exploration remains "core to Endeavour’s DNA."

The standout contributor to future growth is the Assafou project in eastern Côte d’Ivoire. A tier-one asset with 4.3Moz in reserves and a 15-year mine life, Assafou is expected to deliver 350,000+ ounces per year at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) below $1,000/oz. A definitive feasibility study is due by year-end 2025.

“This is arguably the best discovery in West Africa over the last decade.”

Assafou will be the principal driver of the company’s target to grow production by 30–35% by the end of the decade, pushing output towards 1.5 million ounces annually.

Interview with Chief Executive Officer, Ian Cockerill

Financial Performance & Shareholder Returns

Endeavour’s Q1 2025 results demonstrate strong financial health: $411 million in free cash flow was generated, continuing a five-quarter trend of growth. Over the past three quarters alone, Endeavour has generated $775 million in free cash flow - equivalent to $795 per ounce produced. Referencing investors’ increasing confidence, Cockerill remarked

“It’s a question of show me the money - and they’re seeing the money.” 

In 2024, Endeavour returned $277 million to shareholders. For 2025, the company has guaranteed a $225 million dividend, with additional shareholder returns expected via share buybacks. Already in Q1, Endeavour repurchased $55 million in shares, matching last year’s total shareholder return in just one quarter.

A Dual Proposition: Growth and Yield

Uncommonly, Endeavour offers investors both substantial yield and credible production growth. With a yield of approximately 6% and a production outlook expanding by over 30% by 2030, the company stands out in a sector typically bifurcated between dividend payers and developers.

“We’re somewhat unique in this space. Normally in the gold space, people are either a yield play or a growth play. At Endeavour, we’re actually both.”

This dual proposition has gained traction with institutional investors. While performance lagged early in 2024 due to organisational volatility, Cockerill emphasised that “the valuation gap has been closing rapidly” since Q4 2024 as the market regains confidence.

Geographic & Political Risk Management

Operating in West Africa, Endeavour acknowledges that perceived jurisdictional risk can affect valuation. However, Cockerill pushes back against the outdated notion of an “Africa discount.”

“Six months ago, we’d never have thought there would be challenges in OECD countries… Africa is looking like a lake of calm at the moment.”

Endeavour mitigates risk through long-standing relationships with local regulators, consistent communication, and in-country leadership. The company’s strategy emphasises private dialogue over public criticism, fostering trust at both operational and governmental levels.

Cockerill described recent high-level engagements in Burkina Faso, highlighting Endeavour’s approach: 

“It’s that mutual trust and personal interaction that you build… and that’s what I really enjoy about working across Africa.”

Growth Pipeline & Future Outlook

Looking ahead, Endeavour’s organic growth strategy is well defined. Production is expected to increase to 1.5 million ounces annually by 2030, with the Assafou mine forming the keystone of this growth. Further exploration around Assafou and across Endeavour’s broader land package presents potential for resource expansion and additional discoveries.

Projects such as the Sabodala-Bio plant and the LeFigue mine, both completed in 2024, will also contribute to stable production levels. Additional near-mine targets may provide upside, either through mine life extension or enhanced throughput.

The Investment Thesis for Endeavour Mining

• Strong Free Cash Flow: Five consecutive quarters of increasing free cash flow; $411 million in Q1 2025 alone.
• Attractive Shareholder Returns: Guaranteed $225 million dividend in 2025 with additional upside through buybacks—$55 million already executed in Q1.
• Tier-One Growth Project: Assafou mine will deliver ~350,000 oz/year at sub-$1,000/oz AISC; feasibility study due end of 2025.
• Exploration Edge: 20Moz discovered at <$25/oz over past 8 years; exploration remains core to growth strategy.
• Unique Yield-Growth Combo: 6% dividend yield with projected 30–35% production increase by 2030.
• Operational Consistency: Strong cost discipline, group-wide performance tracking, centralized procurement delivering stable margins.
• Political Stability via Local Engagement: Embedded in-country teams and direct relationships with regulators help manage West African risk.
• Valuation Upside: Closing discount to peers suggests rerating potential as performance consistency is demonstrated.

Macro Thematic Analysis

Gold remains a vital store of value amid global volatility, and Endeavour is positioned to benefit from macroeconomic trends favoring the metal. Inflationary pressures, central bank buying, and geopolitical instability continue to support a strong gold price environment. Importantly, Endeavour’s margin growth is not solely dependent on gold prices but supported by disciplined cost control and operational improvement. CEO Ian Cockerill emphasised resilience:

“We want to create a resilient organisation irrespective of the gold price.”

As global uncertainties mount - from OECD debt levels to instability in traditional markets - West Africa’s relative stability and Endeavour’s embedded presence across its jurisdictions position the company as a reliable operator. With gold prices remaining robust, Endeavour stands to benefit both from price tailwinds and from internal efficiency gains.