Riding the Coming Commodity Supercycle - Why Altius Minerals Offers Leverage to Long-Term Fundamentals

Altius Minerals holds a portfolio of royalties poised to benefit from long-term commodity supply deficits. With catalysts near-term and inflation as a tailwind, the company offers leveraged exposure to an impending commodity supercycle.
- Altius sees strong long-term fundamentals for commodities like copper and potash due to looming supply deficits
- The company has a diversified royalty portfolio focused on base and battery metals that stands to benefit from higher prices
- Near-term catalysts include feasibility studies and exploration updates at Champion Iron's Kami project and AngloGold's Silicon project
- Altius takes a patient, long-term approach to investing and sees inflation and jurisdictional risk as tailwinds, not headwinds
- Management believes commodity prices are nearing incentive levels that will spur mine expansions and new projects, boosting Altius' royalties
About Altius Minerals
Altius Minerals Corporation is a Canada-based royalty and streaming company focused primarily on copper, zinc, nickel and potash. The company was founded in 1997 and has a portfolio of royalties and streams across North and South America. Altius takes a long-term approach, often originating many of the royalties it owns through early-stage exploration funding.
Interview with President & CEO, Brian Dalton
Long-Term Fundamentals Appear Strong
In the interview, CEO Brian Dalton highlights growing evidence of looming supply deficits across many commodity markets. On the supply side, mines are seeing production declines due to depleting reserves and lower grades. Meanwhile, demand continues to grow steadily, especially in markets like copper which is essential for construction and electric vehicles.
This backdrop has led to underinvestment in new mine supply after a prolonged downturn in commodity prices. However, Dalton believes prices are reaching levels that incentivize new mine developments. This could drive significant expansions and new projects from Altius' operating partners, boosting the company's royalty revenue.
While inflation and political risks in mining jurisdictions have increased costs for operators, Altius is largely insulated as a royalty holder. Higher costs generally translate into higher commodity prices, which drives increased royalty revenue. Dalton sees jurisdictional risks and inflation as tailwinds rather than headwinds.
Near-Term Catalysts on the Horizon
In the near-term, Altius is awaiting two key milestones - feasibility studies related to the Kami iron ore project and Silicon gold project.
Champion Iron is expected to release the results of a feasibility study for the Kami project in Quebec within weeks. Altius holds a 3% gross royalty over the project. The study will provide key details on the potential scale of production, which could drive significant value for Altius' royalty.
At the Silicon project in Nevada, operator AngloGold Ashanti is working towards a concept study. Results will provide details on the potential production rate from the multi-million ounce gold discovery. Dalton believes the project could support a mine producing 300-600k ounces per year, demonstrating once again the power of Altius' exploration-driven royalty generation model.
Portfolio Positioned for Growth
Beyond near-term catalysts, the Altius portfolio has significant leverage to an improving commodity price environment. In copper, the company has royalties linked to Lundin Mining's Chapada mine with expansion potential as well as Adventus/Salazar's Curipamba project.
The potash portfolio remains a steady cash flow generator for Altius with room to grow volumes in tandem with nutrient demand. Dalton also sees iron ore as a potential growth area as steel markets move towards emissions-reducing electric arc furnace technologies.
A Patient Approach for the Long-Term
Throughout the interview, Dalton emphasizes Altius' patient and long-term focused approach. The management team sees inflation and supply deficits as positive drivers over time. While timing commodity cycles is difficult, they believe prices are approaching levels that will incentivize critical new supply.
Conclusion
Altius Minerals represents a unique royalty investment opportunity. The company's portfolio has significant leverage to strengthening commodity prices, especially in copper and potash. With a collection of high-quality, long-duration royalties and streams as well as exposure to potentially world-class exploration projects, Altius stands to see cash flow growth as operating partners expand production in response to price signals. For investors with similarly long-time horizons, Altius provides diversified commodity exposure along with both stability and significant upside potential if management's bullish long-term views on the supply/demand imbalance materialize.
Analyst's Notes


