Triple Flag Precious Metals Q1 2023 Results

Triple Flag Precious Metals is a rapidly growing mid-tier precious metals royalty & streaming company with a diversified portfolio of over 225 high quality cash flowing assets spanning mines, development projects & exploration opportunities. Following a transformative acquisition, Triple Flag is generating record cash flows and has the scale and balance sheet to continue consolidating the precious metals royalty sector.
- Triple Flag reported record Q1 2023 results, with sales of 26,599 gold equivalent ounces, revenue of $50.3 million, operating cash flow of $38.9 million, and adjusted net earnings of $0.10 per share. This success is attributed to the acquisition of Maverick's Metals.
- Since acquiring Maverick's Metals, Triple Flag has realized the expected benefits including a broadened shareholder base, increased trading liquidity, and the achievement of $7 million in annual synergies. The company is now positioned as the 4th largest streaming and royalty company.
- Operational challenges were faced in Q1, including production disruptions at Cerro Lindo due to cyclone Yaku in Peru. However, production at Cerro Lindo has fully resumed, and Triple Flag has contributed $50,000 to Nexus Community recovery efforts.
- Since Triple Flag's IPO, the company's stock has risen by over 40% on the TSX. They've expanded their assets from 75 to 229, increased their trading liquidity more than tenfold, and increased their dividend per share by 5%. Their ESG practices are now recognized among the top globally.
- Looking ahead, Triple Flag has a strong corporate development pipeline and sees numerous potential deal opportunities. With liquidity exceeding $600 million, the company is poised for further growth and continues its strategy of acquiring precious metal streams and royalties. Their current portfolio boasts 229 assets, offering significant growth potential over the next five years.
Triple Flag Delivers Record Results in First Quarter Post Maverick Metals Acquisition
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. announced record financial results for its first quarter of 2023, the first full quarter following the completion of its transformative acquisition of Maverix Metals in November 2022. The deal has significantly broadened Triple Flag's asset portfolio and shareholder base, while positioning the company as the 4th largest precious metals streaming and royalty company globally.
- Record quarterly revenue of $50.3 million, up 102%
- Record operating cash flow of $38.9 million, up 127%
- Adjusted net earnings of $0.10 per share
- Integration of Maverix Metals acquisition progressing smoothly and on track to deliver $7 million in cost synergies
- Portfolio assets performing well, Cerro Lindo production impacted by heavy rainfall from cyclone Yakecan in Peru
Strategic Rationale for Maverix Metals Acquisition Validated
The strategic rationale underpinning Triple Flag's $606 million acquisition of Maverix has been validated in the first full quarter since the deal closed. As anticipated, the acquisition has:
- Broadened shareholder base and enhanced trading liquidity, with a more than 10-fold increase in average daily trading volume on the TSX
- Positioned Triple Flag as the 4th largest precious metals streaming and royalty company with a diversified portfolio of cash-flowing assets
- Delivered expected cost synergies of $7 million annually through the integration of the two companies
- Added high-quality producing, development and exploration assets to Triple Flag's portfolio including the Beta Hunt mine in Australia
Triple Flag management emphasized that the acquisition was predicated on acquiring a diversified portfolio of good quality cash-generating assets at a fair valuation, that would benefit both sets of shareholders. The successful integration and performance this quarter indicate these strategic objectives are being achieved.
Record Financial Performance Driven by Expanded Asset Base
The addition of a full quarter of contribution from acquired Maverix assets powered Triple Flag's record quarterly revenue of $50.3 million, up 102% year-over-year. Operating cash flow also hit a quarterly record of $38.9 million, an increase of 127% compared to Q1 2022.
On a per-share basis, adjusted net earnings were $0.10, while operating cash flow per share increased 22% compared to Q1 2022. The significant increase in trading liquidity has attracted new high-quality institutional investors to Triple Flag's shareholder registry.
Portfolio Update: Asset Performance Remains Strong Despite Impacts from Extreme Weather
Triple Flag's expanded portfolio of producing, development and exploration assets performed well through the quarter, despite some weather-related impacts:
- Cerro Lindo mine in Peru: Heavy rainfall from cyclone Yakecan caused overflowing rivers and a two-week suspension of operations. Triple Flag contributed $50,000 to community recovery efforts. Nexa was able to swiftly rehabilitate the damage and reiterated 2023 guidance.
- Northparkes mine in Australia: On track with expectations, making preparations to commence surface mining at E31 pit. Deliveries weighted towards H2 2023.
- Fosterville mine in Australia: Agnico Eagle progressing noise abatement works related to regulatory constraints. An eight week fan speed trial was conducted, and results were considered promising.
- Modikwa mine in South Africa: Challenging start to year due to temporary issues with minable face length, tip-to-face distances and fleet availability impacting volumes. Confidently improved performance in Q2.
Karora Resources, Beta Hunt Continues to Demonstrate Exploration Potential
Among the assets added through the Maverix acquisition, the Beta Hunt mine in Australia continues to reinforce the exploration upside that underpinned the investment thesis. Recent drilling intercepted strong mineralization in the Fletcher Zone, providing the potential to significantly expand mineral resources.
The development of a second decline at Beta Hunt is also expected to double production capacity over time. Beta Hunt was one of the highest-quality cash-flowing assets added through the Maverix deal and continues to demonstrate expansion potential.
Well Positioned to Pursue Further Disciplined, Accretive Deals
With a leading sector scale, a high-quality portfolio of cash-flowing assets, and over $600 million in available liquidity, Triple Flag management emphasized it is well-positioned to continue pursuing disciplined, accretive acquisitions of precious metals streams and royalties.
The current backdrop of limited mining equity capital and tightening credit presents an encouraging environment for Triple Flag to deploy its balance sheet capacity advantage relative to most competitors. Management highlighted a deep pipeline of potential opportunities spanning a wide range of sizes and stages.
Milestones Achieved Since IPO in May 2021
As Triple Flag approaches the two-year anniversary of its IPO, management reflected on the significant milestones achieved in a short period:
- Share price has increased over 40% since the IPO
- Asset portfolio has tripled from 75 assets to 229 currently
- Tenfold increase in average daily trading liquidity
- Added to GDXJ, S&P/TSX Global Gold and Global Silver Miners indices
- Ranked 4th among 114 global precious metals companies in ESG practices by Sustainalytics
- Increased annual dividend per share by 5%
- GEOs expected to increase ~70% in 2023 vs 2020
- Cash flow per share was up 22% over the same period
Triple Flag Precious Metals executives emphasized they have substantially delivered on the strategy and ambition laid out at the IPO of building the next senior precious metals streaming and royalty company. With its enhanced scale, diversification and trading liquidity, Triple Flag believes it is well-positioned to continue delivering strong growth and shareholder returns.
The Investment Thesis for Triple Flag Precious Metals
Growth Trajectory and Momentum
- With the transformative Maverix Metals acquisition, Triple Flag has achieved rapid growth in a short period of time, tripling its asset portfolio since its IPO in 2021. This demonstrates strong momentum.
- Revenue, operating cash flow and earnings per share showed tremendous growth in Q1 2023, reflecting the immediate accretion from the Maverix deal. Triple Flag is now generating robust cash flows.
- Management is guiding to a 70% increase in gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) in 2023 compared to 2020. Strong production growth is anticipated.
High-Quality Diversified Portfolio
- Through the Maverix acquisition, Triple Flag has built a highly diversified portfolio of over 225 assets spanning lower-risk producing mines, development projects and higher upside exploration assets.
- Mines like Fosterville in Australia and Cerro Lindo in Peru provide a solid base of free cash flow, while assets like Beta Hunt offer significant exploration potential.
- Diversification lowers cash flow volatility and portfolio concentration risk compared to relying on a handful of assets.
Strong Financial Position
- With over $600 million in liquidity and rapidly growing operating cash flows, Triple Flag has the financial capacity to continue consolidating the sector.
- Can pursue further acquisitions even if access to equity capital markets is constrained.
- A strong balance sheet helps insulate against gold price volatility.
Compelling Valuation
- Despite the growth from the Maverix deal, Triple Flag continues to trade at discounted valuation multiples relative to senior royalty peers like Franco-Nevada and Wheaton Precious Metals.
- Provides an opportunity to gain exposure to an emerging consolidator in the royalty space at a reasonable valuation.
In summary, Triple Flag offers investors exposure to a rapidly growing mid-tier royalty company with rising production, a diversified portfolio generating strong cash flows, a solid balance sheet and a valuation suggesting room for continued expansion. The Maverix deal establishes Triple Flag as a consolidator poised for further accretive growth.
Analyst's Notes


