Tesla Debate: Bull vs Bear After Q3 Earnings

MW Tesla stock remains controversial after Q3 miss. Bulls tout future growth, bears warn of deteriorating fundamentals. Key is weighing innovation potential against current warning signs.
- Bullish view: Tesla is still a growth story despite decelerating volumes. Trading at 52X 2023 earnings with 35% earnings growth projected through 2027 makes it attractive. Upcoming Cybertruck launch, potential FSD licensing deals, and growing energy business are catalysts.
- Bearish concerns: Auto gross margins missed expectations. Volume growth is not materializing from price cuts. Big investors sold off shares after earnings reaction last 3 quarters. CFO's unexplained departure raises questions. Fundamentals seem to be deteriorating, especially if a recession hits.
- Differing perspectives: Bull focuses on long-term growth story, bear warns of near-term troubles. Bull highlights future opportunities like Cybertruck, bear sees demand issues now. Both agree Q3 earnings and call were disappointing.
- Key metrics: Auto volume growth is decelerating but bull sees 35% earnings growth ahead. Price cuts have not increased demand elasticity so far. Profit margins declined but the energy business grew.
- Main debate: Is Tesla's growth story intact despite recent stumbles? Bull says yes long-term, bear warns of further deterioration near-term. Both make reasonable cases that warrant investor consideration.
Tesla's stock has been a battleground lately between bulls and bears after a disappointing third-quarter earnings report. The electric vehicle maker missed expectations for auto gross margins, saw decelerating delivery growth, and the stock sold off over 10% the day after earnings for the third straight quarter.
Bullish investors focus on Tesla's long-term growth story. Despite recent stumbles, the company can grow earnings 35% annually through 2027. With the stock trading at 52X 2023 earnings, they see Tesla as attractive for a high-growth company. There are upcoming catalysts like the Cybertruck launch, potential FSD licensing deals, and rapid growth in the energy business to point to. However, Tesla may get volume growth from initiatives like the eye-catching Cybertruck.
Bears are more concerned about deteriorating fundamentals and near-term troubles. Recent price cuts have not driven higher delivery volumes. With rising interest rates hitting auto affordability, One has to question the ability for more price reductions. And concerns remain about the unexplained departure of Tesla's CFO and Elon Musk's credibility on earnings calls. Potentially, the big picture shows decelerating growth and margins under pressure.
Is Tesla still a long-term growth leader in EVs? Are there real issues with demand and profitability?
For investors, assessing Tesla requires weighing the bull case of future innovation against current warning signs. Conflicting perspectives illustrate why the stock is likely to remain controversial. But for investors willing to research Tesla diligently, the debate offers useful insight into the key factors that will determine if Tesla thrives or struggles ahead.
Analyst's Notes


