Battery Metal Supercycle: EVs, Clean Energy and Supply Crunch Drive Massive Upside

• Demand for battery metals like tin, nickel and lithium is set to surge due to the electric vehicle revolution and energy transition.
• Supply of many critical battery metals is constrained, with limited new mine development in recent years.
• Indonesia and other key producers are pursuing resource nationalist policies, posing risks to global supply chains.
• Tin, though often overlooked, is becoming increasingly important in electronics and solar panels with a looming supply deficit.
• Patient investors targeting quality projects and management teams stand to generate outsized returns from the battery metals supercycle.

The global shift towards electrification and clean energy is accelerating, underpinning a once-in-a-generation opportunity in the key metals that enable these technologies. Nickel, lithium, tin and other critical minerals—collectively referred to as "battery metals"—are essential in electric vehicles, renewable power systems, and energy storage. As the world transitions to a low-carbon future, trillions of dollars will be spent on these technologies, driving an unprecedented boom in battery metal demand through 2030 and beyond.

Nickel's Electric Vehicle Boost

Nickel is getting its own jolt from the EV revolution. While historically a key ingredient in stainless steel, nickel is now a coveted battery metal. Nickel-rich chemistries like NMC and NCA are preferred in larger electric vehicles for their high energy density, fast charging, and cold weather performance. Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel, sees nickel in strong demand due to the electric vehicle thematic, particularly as EV adoption spreads to larger passenger vehicles, commercial trucks and buses.

Global demand increased by 5%, significantly outperforming analyst expectations. Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel notes:

"We've seen nearly 9% growth each year on average since the start of the decade."

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Like copper, nickel prices have not incentivized new supply. The market has tipped into deficit as demand heats up. According to Selby, investors should target nickel companies with sizable deposits that can support long-life, low-cost mines, prioritizing stable jurisdictions in North America. These high-quality projects will attract capital more readily as the nickel market tightens.

Lithium Mania Reaching New Highs

Lithium has emerged as the market's favorite battery metal. Prices have erupted on the back of soaring demand for lithium-ion batteries. Simon Clarke, CEO of American Lithium, describes lithium as the latest battleground in the quest to shore up supply chains for the EV revolution.

Lithium-ion batteries have become the standard for EVs due to their high energy density and falling costs. Rival technologies have failed to displace lithium's dominance. At the same time, lithium supply has struggled to keep up with demand growing at over 20% annually through 2030. Even with new projects springing up worldwide, structural shortages are anticipated during lithium's demand surge.

According to Clarke, investors should consider companies in stable North American jurisdictions with proven, scalable technologies for lithium extraction. Projects with expansion potential and low costs will be best positioned to capitalize on lithium's market exuberance.

The Forgotten Battery Metal: Tin

Tin's emerging role in the energy transition has flown under the radar. Traditionally used in consumer electronics and canned goods, tin is now gaining prominence in advanced electronics, semiconductors and solar panels. Solder, tin's largest end-use, is increasingly difficult to substitute in miniaturized electronics.

However, tin's supply outlook is concerning, with the International Tin Association forecasting a 13,000-ton deficit by 2030. Production is highly concentrated in emerging markets like Indonesia, the world's second-largest producer, which is pursuing downstream processing. Ongoing unrest in Myanmar, a key supplier to China, injects further uncertainty.

The rising supply risks are spurring a new policy focus on tin in the West, particularly in Europe which is evaluating adding tin to its critical minerals list. Tim Moody, CEO of Pan Global Resources advancing a tin project in Spain, sees a unique advantage in having European exposure stating,

"Europe relies on importing tin, apart from its recycling industry which is an important component, but has to import just about all of its tin."

Near-term price volatility belies tin's compelling 2030 fundamentals.

Strategic Commodity Portfolio

The ongoing green energy transition is accelerating demand for critical minerals essential for clean technologies. While much investor attention focuses on metals like lithium, nickel and graphite that are crucial for electric vehicle batteries, a wider range of strategic commodities will be needed to fully decarbonize the global economy:

Canada Nickel

Canada Nickel continues to demonstrate the district-scale potential of its nickel sulphide projects in the Timmins region of Ontario. Recent drilling at its regional properties, including Deloro, Bannockburn, Midlothian and Nesbitt, yielded impressive nickel intercepts over wide intervals. This suggests the properties could host additional significant nickel resources beyond the flagship Crawford deposit.

CEO Mark Selby highlighted Midlothian's results,

"Results from four separate regional properties continue to demonstrate the scale of the sulphide nickel potential of the Timmins Nickel District. Midlothian’s drilling results are showing consistent grades with an average grade that is the highest to date of all the company’s regional properties"

Canada Nickel plans to publish an additional 6 regional resource estimates by mid-2025, showcasing the sheer scale of the Timmins Nickel District. With nickel poised for strong demand from the EV battery sector, Canada Nickel's rapidly growing nickel sulphide resource base positions it well to become a major supplier to the North American battery supply chain.

Sovereign Metals

Sovereign Metals' optimized Pre-Feasibility Study on its Kasiya rutile and graphite project in Malawi reaffirms its potential as the world's largest and lowest-cost strategic critical minerals operation. Completed with technical input from Rio Tinto, the PFS projects Kasiya could deliver incredible returns including a US$2.3B NPV, 27% IRR and US$16.4B in revenue over an initial 25-year mine life.

Kasiya is set to produce an average of 222,000 tons rutile and 233,000 tons graphite per year, establishing Sovereign as potentially the world's largest natural rutile supplier and lowest-cost graphite producer outside China. With a strong balance sheet, technical support from Rio Tinto, and compelling project economics, Sovereign appears well-positioned to develop Kasiya into a major source of critical minerals for the energy transition.

MTM Critical Metals

MTM Critical Metals is advancing a disruptive technology to selectively recover high-value critical metals more efficiently than current methods. Its modular Flash Joule Heating process, originally developed at Rice University, could dramatically reduce the steps required to extract metals like lithium, rare earths, gallium, germanium and indium from mineral ores and scrap.

MTM is finalizing design of a one ton per day pilot plant and aims to begin commercial production and generate cash flow in 2025.

As CEO Michael Walshe notes, "Even at one ton per day, the gallium opportunity is commercial. The total consumption of gallium in the US is about 400 to 500 tons per annum, so this one ton per day plant could address most of the US's needs."

With a scalable technology addressing multi-billion dollar markets and potential partnerships with the US DOE and DOD, MTM is a compelling critical metals technology play.

Rome Resources

Rome Resources is rapidly advancing its tin and copper projects in the DRC, with multiple near-term catalysts on the horizon. The company recently announced encouraging drill results from its Mont Agoma prospect, intersecting broad zones of tin mineralization 30-40 meters wide.

CEO Paul Barrett provided additional context on the results: "These are relatively shallow holes, but the really interesting thing is that they're very wide tin intercepts... Going deeper, we hope to fill in the gaps with tin mineralisation. That's the forward plan - to drill deeper holes."

Rome expects to complete drilling at its Kalayi prospect and release maiden resource estimates on both properties by early Q2 2025. Well-funded after a recent capital raise, the company is looking for strategic partners rather than further equity dilution. With tin's critical role in the energy transition, Rome Resources offers compelling exposure to a potential new major tin district.

Aurania Resources

Aurania Resources is advancing a portfolio of exploration projects in Ecuador and France targeting in-demand metals for the energy transition. In Ecuador, the company has invested over $60M exploring its massive 200,000 hectare land package, yielding drill-ready targets for gold, copper and silver.

Aurania is engaging with major mining companies about potential joint ventures to fund drilling in Ecuador. Major partners are currently in a holding pattern pending the results of Ecuador's national elections next month. The U.S. government recognizes Ecuador's strategic importance from a critical metals supply perspective.

CEO Keith Barron elaborated, "I've spoken in the past to the U.S. State Department at the embassy here. They are watching very closely what happens in this country because they certainly do not want the commodities to go to China."

Results from a recently completed geophysical survey over a key gold target are pending. The company is also evaluating an unconventional opportunity to produce nickel from black sands on the island of Corsica in France. Sampling has returned nickel grades up to 50%, with potential for near-term, low-capex production by 2026. Aurania represents a unique junior with district-scale potential in Ecuador and a potentially fast-track nickel project in Europe.

Global Atomic Corporation

Global Atomic is rapidly advancing the Dasa Uranium Project in Niger, one of the few uranium projects globally in active development today. With a high-grade reserve of 68.1 million pounds U3O8 at 4,113 ppm, Dasa is positioned to be a Tier-1 asset with low costs and a 23-year mine life.

The recently announced private placement of up to C$36 million keeps Dasa on track for first yellowcake production in early 2026. CEO Stephen Roman remains confident about securing the balance of project financing. In addition from the Dasa project, the company's 49% stake in the cash-flowing Befesa Silvermet Turkey (BST) zinc recycling plant provides an added advantage. BST has capacity to process 110Ktpa of Electric Arc Furnace Dust (EAFD), which can produce 50-60 Mlbpa of payable zinc concentrate via the Waelz process. Global Atomic's wide range of strategic commodities will be needed to fully decarbonize the global economy.

American Critical Minerals

After a productive close to 2024, American Critical Minerals enters the new year in a strong position to advance its Green River Potash and Lithium Project in Utah's Paradox Basin. The company secured federal permits for its Plan of Operations, giving it the greenlight for potash and lithium exploration across over 32,000 acres of prospective ground. It is one of only two companies in the entire Basin to hold Federal Potash Prospecting Permits.

American Critical Minerals is strategically located within a premier U.S. critical minerals district. The Paradox Basin is not only one of just eight officially recognized "Potash Super Basins" worldwide, but is also emerging as potentially the largest lithium brine resource in the United States.

As CEO Simon Clarke noted, "The company enters 2025 in excellent shape and well positioned to execute its plans to launch confirmation/brownfield drilling and publish maiden potash and lithium resources during 2025."

By focusing on domestic potash and lithium resources, American Critical Minerals aims to help strengthen the U.S. supply chain for these designated critical minerals. Over 90% of potash is currently imported, while lithium is essential for batteries that will power electric vehicles and grid storage. With permits in hand, drills turning, and initial resource estimates on the horizon, American Critical Minerals offers investors a timely opportunity to gain exposure to these increasingly strategic commodities as America prioritizes secure, reliable sourcing of raw materials needed for food and energy security in a decarbonizing world.

The Investment Thesis for Battery Metals

• Explosive demand growth through 2030 driven by unstoppable trends in vehicle electrification, renewable energy, and portablepower
• Looming supply deficits after years of underinvestment in exploration and development
• Mounting geopolitical risks as countries race to shore up critical mineral supply chains
• Extraordinary price upside during cyclical deficits from inelastic supply
• Extremely attractive risk-reward for patient investors as the market digests the enormity of the energy transition

Investment Criteria and Considerations

When investing in battery metal companies, investors should seek:

• Exposure to the crucial battery metals: lithium, nickel, and copper especially; consider tin for diversified portfolios
• Large, high-grade, scalable deposits that can supply the market with low costs and attractive margins through the commodity cycle
• Proven management teams with technical, permitting and financing experience to deliver these complex projects
• Favorable jurisdictions balancing resource potential with the rule of law; consider North America which is aggressively building resilient supply chains
• Reasonable valuation and permitting timelines; avoid over-hyped companies with marginal assets
• Strong cash position and access to capital; mine development and scaling production is highly capital intensive
• Patience is a prerequisite; expect volatility, but maintain a long-term focus

Key Takeaway

Importantly, conduct thorough due diligence. While the market opportunity is immense, many companies will inevitably fall short. Vet management, scrutinize economic studies and assumptions, and invest in quality. Accumulate gradually, taking advantage of price weakness to build positions.The battery metals supercycle will mint fortunes for investors who position wisely. The demand outlook driven by the energy transition is simply unprecedented. While the near-term may be choppy, the long-term upside is too immense to ignore. Focus on companies with scale, grade, growth, and experience. Remain patient and keep a long-term perspective. The battery metals sector is hurtling towards a defining decade.

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_References:

1. _{Crux Investor (January 2025). Nickel Demand Growth as New Investors Emerge to Meet Strategic Critical Minerals Status}
2. _{Crux Investor (January 2025). Tin Market Faces Supply Challenges Amid Growing Energy Transition Demand}
3. _{Crux Investor (August 2023). The Coming Battery Supercycle: How to Profit from the Electric Vehicle Revolution in Copper, Nickel, and Lithium}
4. _{Radebe, Nomkhosi, Chipangamate, Nelson (2024). Mining Industry Risks, And Future Critical Minerals AndMetals Supply Chain Resilience In Emerging Markets}