Tin Supply Security Concerns Create Strategic Investment Opportunities

• Tin faces significant supply challenges with production concentrated in Indonesia and Myanmar, where disruption risks are high
• Global demand contracted 4-5% in 2024, but medium-term outlook remains strong due to energy transition needs
• Western nations are increasingly concerned about supply chain security, with 80% of reserves in just five countries
• The market is relatively small (400,000 tons) and opaque, making it volatile and challenging for investment
• European domestic tin production is minimal, creating opportunities for new projects in the region

Tin: A Critical Metal at the Crossroads

Tin, often overlooked in discussions about critical minerals, is emerging as a crucial component in the global energy transition and technological advancement. With a market facing significant supply challenges and growing strategic importance, tin presents both opportunities and risks for investors considering exposure to this industrial metal.

Supply Challenges and Market Dynamics

The global tin market, though relatively small at approximately 400,000 tons annually, faces substantial supply challenges. Production is heavily concentrated, with 80% of global reserves located in just five countries: China, Indonesia, Peru, Bolivia, and Brazil. This concentration creates significant supply risk, particularly given recent developments in key producing regions.

Indonesia, the world's largest refined tin exporter, continues to face regulatory changes and industry investigations. Meanwhile, Myanmar, a crucial source of tin concentrate, has implemented mining restrictions that have led to a 50% reduction in raw material exports to China over the past year.

According to Reuters senior metals columnist Andy Home, "Neither of the two big disruptions of last year are suddenly miraculously going to disappear this year."

Demand Patterns and Future Growth

While tin demand contracted by 4-5% in 2024, the medium-term outlook remains robust, driven by several factors:

• Growing use in solar panel manufacturing
• Essential role in circuit board soldering
• Increasing demand from the energy transition sector
• Expanding middle-class consumption globally

Strategic Importance and Geopolitical Considerations

The metal's strategic importance is gaining recognition among Western nations, particularly in the context of supply chain security.

As Tim Moody, CEO of Pan Global Resources, notes, "Europe essentially relies on importing tin apart from its recycling industry... probably less than 1% of it is coming from domestic supply."

This reality is prompting a reassessment of tin's importance in critical mineral strategies, particularly as geopolitical tensions rise and nations focus on supply chain resilience. The potential for tin to be included in the European Union's critical materials list could create additional market support.

Market Characteristics and Price Dynamics

The tin market's relatively small size makes it susceptible to significant price volatility. Historical price movements have ranged from below $20,000 to above $50,000 per ton over the past decade. This volatility, combined with market opacity, creates challenges for both investors and project developers.

The current market structure presents opportunities for companies developing tin resources in stable jurisdictions, particularly in Europe. The combination of supply chain concerns and growing demand from the energy transition sector could support both prices and project development in secure jurisdictions.

The tin market presents a compelling investment case based on supply security concerns, growing demand from the energy transition sector, and limited new project development. While market volatility and opacity present challenges, the strategic importance of tin in modern technology and potential inclusion in critical minerals lists could provide support for well-positioned projects in stable jurisdictions.