• Critical minerals including lithium, nickel, antimony, copper, and rare earths are experiencing rising demand driven by electrification, defense applications, and supply chain reshoring initiatives.
• China currently dominates supply chains for many critical minerals, with control of 99% of LFP battery production, 87% of antimony production, and significant portions of rare earth processing.
• Companies like Nano One, Canada Nickel, NioCorp, Iris Metals, Krakatoa Resources, and Torr Metals are advancing projects to establish Western supply chains for these strategic materials.
• Government initiatives in the US and Canada are creating unprecedented support for domestic critical minerals production, including financing from export credit agencies, tax credits, and expedited permitting.

The investment case for critical minerals "cannot be understood in isolation from the broader macro thematic reshaping global resource markets. We are witnessing a fundamental paradigm shift in how governments and corporations approach critical mineral supply chains," driven by the converging forces of geopolitical tensions, energy transition demands, and supply chain resilience imperatives.

Western governments have recognized their dangerous dependence on Chinese-controlled supply chains, prompting a strategic pivot toward "friend-shoring" and domestic production. As a result, investors are witnessing the emergence of what could be termed "strategic capital" – government and institutional funding specifically directed toward securing critical mineral supply chains that operate under different investment criteria than traditional mining finance.

Lithium

Lithium still remains a cornerstone of the energy transition, with demand projected to grow substantially as electric vehicle adoption accelerates. The market is experiencing significant bifurcation along geopolitical lines, creating opportunities for domestic producers in protected markets.

Iris Metals, a US-focused lithium developer, highlights that "there's essentially zero production in the US of lithium right now," creating a massive supply gap. This jurisdictional advantage is compounded by the current trade environment. With tariff barriers protecting against Canadian imports and other foreign competition, US-based producers enjoy a protected market position. Kevin Smith, non-executive director at Iris Metals explains, "Being in the US, we're uniquely situated to benefit from that. The Canadian projects in Quebec and Ontario are on the other side of that tariff wall. They're going to have a cost disadvantage."

The company is advancing what may be the most accessible near-term lithium production opportunity in the United States, restarting a brownfield operation that produced lithium during the Cold War era.

"We have outcropping pegmatite, lithium... you walk into the pit and you see lithium all around you, spodumene that you can access right away. But uniquely, we're already licensed and permitted. So we could direct ship ore this afternoon if we wanted to," states Smith.

Kevin Smith, Non-Executive Director of Iris Metals

The lithium-ion battery market has undergone dramatic transformation since Sony introduced the first commercial cells in the 1990s. Understanding the technical evolution from high-energy-density materials to more stable, cost-effective alternatives is crucial for investors navigating this rapidly changing landscape.

As described by Denis Geoffroy, Chief Commercialization Officer at Nano One, lithium-ion batteries are complex systems of layered films (cathode, separator, anode) that work like rocking chairs with lithium ions moving between electrodes through intercalation processes and battery performance depends critically on ultra-pure materials - even minimal impurities can create aging issues, short circuits, and reduced efficiency across all components.

A significant shift is occurring in cathode chemistry preferences, with Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) gaining market share over Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) materials. While NMC offers superior energy density for premium vehicles but has stability concerns; LFP provides lower cost, enhanced safety, and longer cycle life at the expense of energy density.

This evolution is driving market changes as the industry is shifting from premium NMC-based EVs toward mass-market adoption using LFP technology, with China leading at 60-70% LFP market share.

"LFP (lithium iron phosphate) technology, originally developed in the US and refined in Quebec, is poised for a comeback as the industry focuses on affordable, accessible electric vehicles," states Geoffroy.

Nickel

Nickel plays a critical role in both battery technologies and traditional applications like stainless steel, providing investors with exposure to multiple growth vectors. Companies with diversified market approaches can insulate themselves from EV market volatility.

Canada Nickel CEO Mark Selby emphasizes the strategic advantage, "We're not dependent on the EV market. We can produce for the EVs if they want to pay, but we don't have to give it away and we don't have to panic if one or two plants don't show up." This strategic flexibility extends to geographic markets as well, allowing producers to direct production to the most profitable applications.

The company's flexibility extends to geographic markets as well.

"As long as you're doing it flexibly, and you're not committing 100% into the EV market - we've got capability to move our nickel units wherever we need them," Selby notes.

The rapid advancement of Canada Nickel's Crawford project demonstrates the accelerating timelines for strategic projects. The company has successfully executed multiple bridge financing deals, avoiding dilution while maintaining project momentum during challenging capital markets and is benefiting from the Trump administration and Canadian political landscape creating unprecedented tailwinds for critical minerals projects in North America.

Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel Corp

Rare Earths

Critical minerals like rare earths, antimony, copper, and niobium are essential components in technologies ranging from defense systems to renewable energy infrastructure. The United States and its allies are actively working to reduce dependence on foreign sources for these strategic materials.

NioCorp is developing a fully permitted critical minerals mine and processing facility in Nebraska, targeting niobium, scandium, titanium, and magnetic rare earths—materials that the U.S. largely imports. With recent funding secured, the company has the funds to finalize technical studies and aims to reach a Final Investment Decision (FID) by early 2026 and has established binding agreements for a significant portion of its niobium and scandium output, including deals with Thyssenkrupp and Traxys USA, and is in discussions for rare earths with Stellantis.

One of NioCorp’s competitive advantages is that it already holds all major permits required for construction—an uncommon achievement among U.S. mining peers. Smith also emphasized the strength of the team, particularly its rare earth expertise derived from Molycorp’s operations at the Mountain Pass Mine.

“I have one guy with 42 years of making rare earth oxides… There probably isn’t anyone in the world that knows more.”

The company is benefiting from strong government support, as NioCorp is working closely with the US EXIM Bank for debt financing (~$800M) under a critical minerals strategy strongly supported by recent Trump administration executive orders.

Mark A. Smith, President & CEO of NioCorp

Antimony

Antimony has emerged as a particularly critical mineral due to its applications in defense technology, flame retardants, and energy storage systems. Global supply is heavily concentrated in a few countries, creating geopolitical vulnerabilities.

Krakatoa Resources CEO Mark Major highlighted that

"China, Russia, and Tajikistan collectively control 'over 70% of the antimony market,' underscoring geopolitical vulnerabilities. The developments have pushed Western nations to identify antimony as a strategic priority, thereby boosting demand for secure and diversified supply sources."

The mineral's critical nature is further emphasized by Major: "It is not a recyclable element—you use it, you lose it." This characteristic makes securing new sources particularly urgent for Western economies.

Mark Major, CEO of Krakatoa Resources

The company's high-grade Zopkhito project in Georgia provides a potential solution to this supply challenge. Historical exploration has documented "remarkably high antimony grades averaging approximately 11.6%." For context, Major highlighted that "comparable global deposits average around 1.3% antimony, marking Zopkhito as an exceptionally high-grade asset."

Government Support and Financing Innovation

A distinguishing feature of the current critical minerals landscape is the unprecedented level of government support. From direct financing to regulatory assistance, Western governments are actively facilitating domestic production.

Canada Nickel CEO Mark Selby sees particular opportunity in the current political dynamics:

"There's a real political incentive and a political driver to really make bold steps forward."

For U.S. projects, support has been more concrete. NioCorp CEO Mark Smith underscored the urgency:

"We have people working on our project specifically. The reception we're getting is second to none in my 44-year career."

This support reflects how "the transition from Chinese-dominated processing and supply toward diversified and domestic solutions is no longer speculative."

The policy environment has created significant tailwinds. The United States faces a critical minerals supply crisis that has become a matter of national security, being dangerously dependent on foreign suppliers, particularly China, for materials essential to the energy transition and defense applications.

This has prompted unprecedented government action. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act allocated billions for critical minerals processing, while the Inflation Reduction Act provides production tax credits for domestic mining operations. Recent executive orders have expedited permitting for strategic mineral projects, and new tariff structures protect domestic producers from unfair foreign competition.

The Investment Thesis for Battery Metals

• Strategic Positioning: Invest in companies developing critical mineral projects in Western jurisdictions to capitalize on government support, protected markets, and supply chain reshoring trends.

• Diversified Exposure: Seek companies with multi-metal exposure (like NioCorp) or flexible business models (like Canada Nickel) that can pivot between different markets based on pricing dynamics.

• Development Stage Optimization: Balance portfolio with near-term producers (Iris Metals, Nano One), advanced developers (Canada Nickel, NioCorp), and exploration plays (Torr Metals, Krakatoa) to manage risk while maintaining upside potential.

• Infrastructure Advantage: Prioritize projects with existing infrastructure, brownfield status, or proximity to transportation networks to reduce capital requirements and accelerate timelines.

• Technical De-risking: Favor companies using proven technologies (like Iris Metals' hard rock spodumene) over experimental processes to reduce execution risk.

• Government Support: Look for projects actively engaged with export credit agencies, critical minerals programs, and strategic financing initiatives that can provide non-dilutive or low-cost capital.

• Offtake Agreements: Value companies with binding offtake agreements that de-risk future revenue streams and potentially provide development capital.

• Management Experience: Seek teams with proven track records in developing similar projects or deep expertise in relevant minerals and markets.

• Cost Position: Focus on projects with potential for bottom-quartile production costs that can remain profitable throughout commodity price cycles.

• Optionality: Consider companies with additional exploration upside, processing alternatives, or expansion potential beyond initial development plans.

A Generational Opportunity for Investors in Critical Minerals

The critical minerals sector stands at an inflection point driven by structural changes in global supply chains, energy transition demands, and unprecedented government support. For investors, this represents a unique opportunity to gain exposure to materials that form the foundation of both modern technology and national security infrastructure.

The timing is particularly favorable as by 2030, US lithium demand is projected to exceed 200,000 tons annually, while current domestic production remains near zero. This supply-demand imbalance, combined with Buy American provisions in federal procurement and incentives for domestic sourcing, creates a protected market environment rarely seen in commodity sectors. For investors, this represents a structural shift from cyclical commodity exposure to strategic resource positioning. Companies with near-term US production capabilities are not just mining plays—they're infrastructure investments in America's energy independence and national security.

While individual projects carry varying levels of technical, financing, and execution risk, the macro trends supporting critical minerals development appear firmly established. The confluence of policy support, market demand, and geopolitical necessity creates what may be a once-in-a-generation investment opportunity for those positioned to capitalize on the critical minerals reshoring imperative.