G7 Critical Minerals – Nations Unite to Secure the Next Supply Chain Frontier

• Nickel prices remain range-bound between $15,000-$15,500 per ton, with expected upward movement driven by Philippine ore tightness as the rainy season progresses through Q4 2025 and Q1 2026
• EV sales continue growing at 24% year-to-date through September 2025, with China, Europe, and North America up 32%, 24%, and 11% respectively, driving sustained demand for high-nickel battery chemistries
• G7 nations are establishing a Critical Minerals Initiative to collectively finance and advance projects in resource-rich countries like Canada and Australia, with ministers meeting in Toronto this week
• Canada Nickel's Crawford project demonstrates significant economic impact potential with $70 billion GDP contribution over 40 years and $15 billion in tax revenue, positioning it favourably for Canada's National Priority Projects list
• Canada Nickel's carbon sequestration technology can store up to 15 million tons of CO2 annually, enabling development of a zero-carbon industrial cluster for hydrogen, fertiliser, and other low-carbon products

Nickel Markets Await Seasonal Supply Tightening

Nickel prices have maintained a consistent trading range between $15,000 and $15,500 per ton over recent weeks, with market participants anticipating an upward breakout driven by seasonal dynamics in the Philippines. Mark Selby notes,

"We were spending more time in the upper end of that range and again, I think we will break out through the upper end." 

Philippine ore prices have already increased by one dollar since early October, signalling the beginning of seasonal tightening as the country enters its rainy season. The fourth quarter traditionally sees reduced mining activity, with the first quarter of the following year representing the lowest production period. London Metal Exchange and Shanghai inventories currently total approximately 286,000 tons, representing only one-third of analyst-projected surpluses.

Electric Vehicle Demand Sustains Growth Trajectory

Contrary to persistent market skepticism, electric vehicle sales continue demonstrating robust expansion. Year-to-date through September 2025, global EV sales across China, Europe, and North America increased 24%, with regional growth rates of 32%, 24%, and 11% respectively. A temporary spike in U.S. September sales preceded the reduction of Biden-era EV purchase subsidies under the Trump administration.

Despite near-term headwinds in the U.S. market, industry forecasts project sustained 15-20% annual growth rates through the end of the decade. For North American nickel demand specifically, this translates to an additional 300,000-400,000 tons of nickel requirement for high-nickel batteries. 

"In North America, where we drive big cars, big trucks, big SUVs, you're going to need nickel batteries, and to date, almost all of the battery plant additions that are still being built are all high nickel NMC chemistries."

The growing adoption of plug-in hybrid vehicles presents an additional demand source, utilising 60% nickel battery chemistries operated at higher voltages. While individual battery sizes are smaller than full EVs, the cumulative impact contributes meaningfully to overall nickel consumption.

G7 Critical Minerals Initiative Addresses Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

Recognition of critical minerals as a national security imperative has driven coordinated action among G7 nations. Ministers are convening in Toronto this week to advance the G7 Critical Minerals Initiative, acknowledging that countries like Germany, France, and the United Kingdom lack domestic mineral resources and must partner with resource-rich nations including Canada, the United States, and Australia. Selby notes,

"This is such a fundamental issue that governments together want to work on so that it's not just, hey, Canada, it would be nice if you could help fund and advance a lot of critical minerals projects and just don't send us a bill, just send us the minerals." 

The initiative aims to provide enhanced financing mechanisms, reduced capital costs, and expedited pathways to production for qualifying projects.

Recent U.S. deals with MP Materials and Trilogy Metals exemplify the emerging framework for government-backed critical mineral investments. Investors are advised to identify projects likely to receive similar support in upcoming announcement cycles.

National Priority Projects Framework Takes Shape

Canada's federal government is developing a National Priority Projects list expected to include 20-30 large-scale developments, with an announcement anticipated later in 2025. The selection criteria emphasise four key dimensions: scale sufficient to generate meaningful economic impact, near-term development timelines, significant Indigenous community participation and benefits, and contributions to decarbonization objectives.

Projects meeting these criteria will access preferential government support and financing. Canada Nickel has positioned Crawford to address all four evaluation factors, with Selby expressing optimism regarding inclusion on the forthcoming list. The framework reflects Canada's strategy to leverage its resource endowment in response to U.S. trade tensions and tariff policies.

Economic Impact Analysis Demonstrates Scale of Opportunity

Canada Nickel released an economic impact study quantifying Crawford's potential contribution at $70 billion in GDP impact across a 40-year operational life. The analysis projects $15 billion in direct and indirect tax revenue generation across all government levels, underscoring the project's fiscal significance beyond mineral production.

"When you have a large scale project, when you have these big disseminated ore bodies that can support 40 years of their life, you get to some very big economic numbers."

The economic profile stems from Crawford's geological characteristics, featuring large disseminated ore bodies amenable to rapid drilling and delineation at scale.

Canada Nickel's broader district portfolio includes three to four additional projects management believes will ultimately exceed Crawford's economics, suggesting cumulative impact potential substantially above current projections.

Carbon Sequestration Technology Enables Industrial Cluster Development

Canada Nickel announced a transformative carbon capture advancement through partnership with an Australian technology group. The enhanced process increases reactive mineral capacity in project tailings by tenfold, enabling annual carbon dioxide storage of up to 15 million tons compared to the previously demonstrated 1.5 million tons from Canada Nickel's IP carbonation process.

This capacity creates opportunities for zero-carbon industrial development beyond nickel production. Proximity to major natural gas pipeline infrastructure positions the project to support blue-green hydrogen production, fertiliser manufacturing, and other industrial applications currently requiring imports in Eastern Canada.  Selby emphasises,

"We're not just talking about a nickel project. We're not just talking about a nickel district but this is all really a whole zero-carbon industrial cluster."

The economic implications are substantial. Each ton of tailings can facilitate production of 55 kilograms of zero-carbon hydrogen. At premium pricing of $0.50-$1.00 per kilogram, this translates to $27-$55 of additional value per ton of tailings, compared to base nickel NSR values of $30-$35 per ton. Downstream applications utilising hydrogen for ammonia and urea production would generate incremental value beyond hydrogen premiums alone.

Sector Activity Reflects Emerging Investment Rotation

Recent financing activity and exploration results across the nickel sector provide mixed signals. 

First Atlantic Nickel reported drilling success at its Newfoundland ultramafic deposit, doubling strike length on primary targets with grades comparable to FPX Nickel's Baptiste project. Full metallurgical testing remains pending to determine final concentrate specifications.

Magna Mining released high-grade intercepts from footwall-type mineralization, including results approaching one ounce platinum group metals and 19% copper over narrow widths. While visually compelling, economic viability will depend on mineable widths when incorporated into updated reserve calculations.

Talon Metals negotiated a 12-month extension with Rio Tinto subsidiary Kennecott Exploration to complete a $10 million payment and feasibility study, securing the final 9% interest to reach 51% project ownership. Results are expected in late 2026, with additional drilling results anticipated in the interim.

NexMetals Mining announced a $65 million financing at terms including full warrant coverage, effectively doubling the basic share count. A significant portion addresses contingent payment obligations from the original Premium Nickel acquisition structure. 

"Always make sure that the company you invest in has 100% of the asset. And if they don't have 100% of the asset, how much do they need to spend to be able to get full control of it?" 

Broader market dynamics indicate capital rotation from precious metals into battery metals and base metals sectors. Gold's substantial appreciation has driven profit-taking, with investors seeking exposure to undervalued sectors that have not yet participated in the commodity rally. Multiple nickel and battery metal stocks have advanced off multi-year lows over the past two months as generalist investors rebalance portfolios.

TL;DR

Canada Nickel's Crawford project offers $70 billion GDP impact over 40 years while revolutionary carbon sequestration technology enables a zero-carbon industrial cluster, positioning the asset favorably for Canada's National Priority Projects list. EV sales growth of 24% year-to-date supports 300,000-400,000 ton nickel demand increase in North America, while Philippine ore supply tightening through Q1 2026 is expected to drive prices above the current $15,000-$15,500 range.

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