From Low Grade to High Hopes: What’s Driving Northisle’s Rise?

We're following up our recent Analyst’s Note on valuation disconnects in early-stage copper and gold projects with a deep dive into Northisle Copper and Gold (TSX-V: NCX). In February 2025, the company’s flagship North Island Project in British Columbia published a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) outlining a large-scale porphyry operation supported by rising gold prices, and more latterly, the company has seen a marked uptick in investor interest.

With 1.12 billion tonnes of mineral resources and a diluted enterprise value of just US$256 million - equating to around US$15/oz AuEq - Northisle still looks cheap. But how realistic are the economics, given the project’s ultra-low grades, high capex, and aggressive metallurgical assumptions?

The Lowdown

In this month’s Analyst’s Notes, we stress-test Northisle’s 2025 PEA with a more conservative model. We evaluate recovery rates based on actual grade-recovery relationships, benchmark capital intensity, and reassess copper, gold, molybdenum, and rhenium production under spot pricing. We also examine the phased development strategy and recent higher-grade drilling near Red Dog and Northwest Expo.

With gold now accounting for over 50% of projected revenues, is this a gold-leveraged copper story flying under the radar? Or are market expectations running ahead of technical reality?

To access the full Analyst’s Notes report on Northisle Copper and Gold, head to analystsnotes.com and sign-in / subscribe with your email. Our Notes are free and built for investors seeking independent, technically grounded insights into emerging mining companies