Oversubscribed Bought Deal at Canada Nickel & What It Signals for Large-Scale Nickel Financing Conditions

• Canada Nickel's oversubscribed C$15 million bought deal, with full exercise of the over-allotment option, underscores strengthening institutional appetite for large-scale nickel sulphide development amid tightening global supply conditions.
• The financing reflects a broader macro shift as Western capital allocators prioritize supply-chain security, low-carbon production, and jurisdictional safety outside Indonesia and China.
• Crawford's economics, after-tax net present value at 8 percent discount rate of US$2.8 billion, internal rate of return of 17.6 percent, and net C1 cost of US$0.39 per pound—provide the foundation for long-cycle value creation amid volatile nickel prices.
• The raise de-risks the company's 2026 permitting and financing milestones and positions Canada Nickel as a strategic candidate for downstream partnerships, offtake interest, and merger and acquisition optionality.
• Strategic shareholders including Agnico Eagle, Samsung SDI, Anglo American, and Taykwa Tagamou Nation provide technical validation and potential partnership pathways.

A Capital Market Signal in a Shifting Nickel Landscape

Nickel prices remain volatile, Indonesian supply continues expanding, and Western governments are accelerating strategic metals policy. In this environment, capital formation for multi-billion-dollar sulphide projects is increasingly selective. Institutional investors are re-evaluating risk-adjusted returns across the nickel cost curve, prioritizing assets that combine scale, jurisdictional stability, and alignment with decarbonization mandates.

Canada Nickel's fully subscribed and expanded bought deal acts as an important signal about broader investor behavior in the nickel financing cycle. The oversubscription reflects confidence in Crawford's fundamentals and validates the investment thesis for Western critical minerals development, demonstrating that capital is flowing selectively toward long-life, low-risk, low-carbon nickel assets in stable jurisdictions.

Mark Selby, Chief Executive Officer of Canada Nickel, emphasized the company's focus on execution:

"Right now it's literally executed on the financing plan… Starting from now you'll see a number of financing announcements from the different bits and pieces with a view to having the package in place by mid-year."

Why Western Investors Are Re-Pricing Large-Scale Nickel Sulphide Supply

Indonesia now accounts for more than 60 percent of global nickel supply, creating cost curve distortions and introducing geopolitical risk into battery and stainless steel supply chains. Western original equipment manufacturers and battery producers are increasingly concerned about single-source dependency, particularly as Indonesia implements export restrictions and beneficiation mandates.

The United States Inflation Reduction Act requires critical minerals sourcing from free trade agreement partners for electric vehicle tax credit eligibility. The European Union's Critical Raw Materials Act sets binding targets for domestic processing and supply diversification. These policy frameworks create preferential economics for Western-based nickel development and signal long-term institutional support for supply-chain realignment.

Capital Selectivity in Development Financing

Exploration and development capital has contracted sharply for junior mining globally, yet selective oversubscription persists for Tier-1 potential assets. Projects lacking scale, cost competitiveness, or jurisdictional clarity struggle to access institutional capital, while those offering proven reserves, first-quartile economics, and government backing can attract oversubscribed raises even in volatile commodity environments.

Selby noted the strategic advantage of government designation:

"Being sponsored by the major project office means that we'll have the express pass to get us to the front of the line with those organizations... They will be experts in terms of helping get the financing package together."

The Oversubscribed Financing: A Direct Indicator of Institutional Confidence

Canada Nickel completed a bought deal financing of C$12 million at C$1.20 per unit, with underwriters exercising the full over-allotment option bringing total proceeds to C$15 million. Each unit includes one common share and one-half warrant exercisable at C$1.80 for 36 months. The offering was scheduled to close on or around December 11, 2025.

Full exercise of the over-allotment option demonstrates that lead underwriters identified sufficient demand to expand the raise beyond the initial base size, reflecting institutional appetite for exposure to Crawford's development timeline and district-scale potential. In a capital environment where many junior miners face dilutive raises or failed financings, oversubscription signals differentiated investor conviction.

Why Investors Stepped In Despite Volatile Nickel Prices

Crawford offers a Tier-1 reserve base with 3.789 million tonnes of contained nickel in proven and probable reserves as of August 31, 2023, representing the second largest nickel sulphide reserve globally according to Wood Mackenzie. The project's first-quartile cost profile, net C1 cash cost of US$0.39 per pound and all-in sustaining cost of US$1.54 per pound, provides downside protection while maintaining price leverage.

The carbon-negative production strategy through carbon capture utilization and storage differentiates Crawford from Indonesian laterite operations and conventional sulphide projects. This environmental, social, and governance alignment opens access to green financing pools and offtake agreements tied to decarbonization targets.

De-Risking 2026 Milestones

Proceeds support Crawford project advancement, working capital, and pre-construction engineering activities. The company is targeting construction start by year-end 2026, contingent upon receipt of final permits and completion of debt and equity funding packages totaling US$2.5 billion.

Selby emphasized government commitment:

"When you have a prime minister who uses the kind of words in the speech that he did, you can be certain that he wants to make sure that what his statement is saying is coming true. We committed that we were going to be breaking ground by the end of next year."

Crawford's Tier-1 Scale & District Potential

Crawford's 3.789 million tonnes of contained nickel in proven and probable reserves positions it as the second largest nickel reserve globally. Upon reaching commercial production, the project is expected to rank as the third largest nickel sulphide operation worldwide, with 48,000 tonnes per annum of nickel production at peak capacity.

Institutional investors prioritize Tier-1 scale because reserve size correlates with project longevity, financing capacity, and strategic value to downstream buyers. Large reserve bases support multi-decade mine plans, reducing per-unit capital intensity.

District Consolidation: Multi-Decade Growth Beyond Crawford

The Timmins Nickel District encompasses approximately 25 times Crawford's footprint. Canada Nickel has consolidated 9.24 million tonnes of measured and indicated nickel resources across six deposits: Crawford, Reid, Mann West, Mann Central, Deloro, and Texmont. The company has achieved a 98 percent success rate in intersecting target mineralization.

This district-scale position provides capital allocators with a runway for future resource conversion and multi-asset development. The company is targeting publication of three additional resource estimates in 2025: Bannockburn in the third quarter, and Midlothian and Nesbitt in the fourth quarter.

Economics That Support Long-Cycle Investment

Based on Front-End Engineering and Design results completed in March 2025, Crawford's after-tax net present value at 8 percent discount rate is US$2.8 billion, with an internal rate of return of 17.6 percent. These figures represent updates to the Bankable Feasibility Study with an effective date of October 12, 2023.

Crawford's first-quartile cost position reduces margin compression risk during commodity price downturns and enables the project to remain cash-generative across broader price scenarios than mid-tier producers. For institutional investors evaluating long-cycle capital deployment, cost curve position is a primary determinant of risk-adjusted returns.

Carbon Capture & Tax Credit Enhancements

Integration of carbon capture utilization and storage adds approximately US$100 million in net present value uplift, increasing the project net present value from US$2.8 billion to US$2.9 billion according to the March 2025 Front-End Engineering and Design results. The company's funding package assumes US$600 million in investment tax credits from Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage and Clean Technology Manufacturing programs.

Carbon-negative production aligns with green bond frameworks, development finance institution mandates, and corporate offtake requirements tied to Scope 3 emissions reduction targets.

Why Crawford Is Emerging as a Western Critical Minerals Anchor

Crawford competes with Indonesian nickel pig iron and high-pressure acid leaching production on cost and carbon intensity, but without geopolitical exposure or beneficiation policy risk. Western battery manufacturers and stainless producers face increasing pressure to diversify supply chains, creating premium pricing potential for North American sulphide supply.

NetZero Metals & Vertical Integration as a Strategic Differentiator

Canada Nickel's wholly owned subsidiary, NetZero Metals, is advancing plans to develop downstream nickel processing and stainless steel facilities in the Timmins region, expected to be the largest North American nickel processing facility and Canada's only large stainless and alloy facility. The company has appointed SMS, Metso, and Ausenco to lead engineering studies. Funding discussions with potential partners are currently underway.

This planned downstream capacity addresses a critical gap in the electric vehicle battery supply chain. Vertical integration from mine to refined product would reduce supply chain complexity, enhance margin capture, and provide offtake optionality across multiple end markets.

Selby highlighted the unique value proposition:

"It's not just a mine but the fact that we're going to convert it into usable products in a low-carbon way using the carbon storage capacity of Crawford."

What Could Drive a Market Re-Rating

Crawford has received National Priority Project designation from the Canadian federal government, providing access to expedited permitting pathways and coordinated federal support. The Environmental Impact Statement was filed in November 2024, and the company is targeting receipt of final permits in 2026.

High-Grade Discoveries & Resource Expansion

Recent drilling at Bannockburn F-Zone intersected 3.95 percent nickel over 4 meters, demonstrating potential for higher-grade mineralization within the district. High-grade discoveries can meaningfully improve project economics through selective mining strategies and reduce processing costs per unit of contained nickel.

Balance Sheet Strength & Funding Path

As of October 30, 2025, Canada Nickel maintains a diversified strategic shareholder base including Agnico Eagle at 10.0 percent, Samsung SDI at 7.2 percent, Anglo American at 6.3 percent, and Taykwa Tagamou Nation at 7.1 percent on conversion. Strategic equity holders reduce financing and execution risk by providing technical expertise, market intelligence, and potential offtake or partnership pathways.

Multi-Layered Funding Strategy

Canada Nickel is targeting US$2.5 billion in total project financing through US$1.0 billion in equity and US$1.5 billion in debt. The funding package includes US$600 million in targeted investment tax credits and a US$500 million letter of interest from Export Development Canada, which is targeted to serve as Mandated Lead Arranger for the debt facility.

The company is also targeting US$100 million to US$300 million in additional government funding from international partners including Infravia in France, the German resource fund, JOGMEC in Japan, and Korea.

Selby emphasized the coordinated approach:

"We'll work with them to put that funding package together… The other key piece that's very exciting, there are funding programs in France, in Germany through the German resource fund, and two Japanese funds. They will also work in terms of coordinating Canadian efforts with those organizations."

Risks & Mitigating Factors

Crawford's net present value calculations remain subject to nickel price volatility, Indonesian supply growth, and macroeconomic conditions. Mitigating factors include Crawford's first-quartile cost position and long mine life enabling capital recovery across multiple commodity cycles.

Multi-billion-dollar development projects require syndicated financing structures and face execution risk around construction timelines. Counterbalancing factors include syndicate support from strategic shareholders, government-backed facilities, and Export Development Canada's letter of interest.

The company is targeting construction start by year-end 2026 and first production by year-end 2028, both subject to completion of financing and receipt of major permits. Crawford benefits from major support infrastructure already in place, including roads, power, water, and rail connection.

The Investment Thesis for Canada Nickel

• Structural demand from electric vehicle and stainless steel sectors is creating multi-decade growth trajectories for primary nickel consumption supported by Western supply-chain realignment policies.
• Western supply scarcity is amplifying premiums for sulphide assets offering jurisdictional diversification from Indonesian concentration and geopolitical risk mitigation.
• Environmental, social, and governance-aligned, low-carbon production through carbon capture utilization and storage is positioned for preferential financing as battery manufacturers face increasing Scope 3 emissions reporting requirements.
• Proven Tier-1 scale with 3.789 million tonnes of contained nickel in proven and probable reserves provides project longevity and district-level growth optionality across 9.24 million tonnes of measured and indicated resources.
• First-quartile cost structure with net C1 cash cost of US$0.39 per pound supports long-cycle value creation across commodity price scenarios while maintaining downside protection.
• The oversubscribed C$15 million bought deal with full exercise of the over-allotment option serves as a real-time indicator of institutional confidence in Crawford's fundamentals and management execution capability.
• Strong government designation through National Priority Project status and a strategic shareholder base including Agnico Eagle, Samsung SDI, Anglo American, and Taykwa Tagamou Nation reduce permitting risk and enhance access to syndicated project financing.
  
• Clear development milestones targeting construction start by year-end 2026 and first production by year-end 2028, subject to financing and permitting completion, create near-term catalyst visibility for equity valuation re-rating.
• Planned vertical integration through NetZero Metals downstream processing facilities addresses critical gaps in North American nickel supply chains while enhancing margin capture and offtake optionality.

What the Oversubscribed Bought Deal Really Tells Investors

The oversubscribed financing demonstrates that capital is selectively flowing into the highest-quality sulphide assets combining scale, cost advantage, and Western jurisdictional support. Canada Nickel's ability to fully exercise the over-allotment option validates investor confidence in Crawford's bankability and strategic positioning within Western critical minerals development. This financing success signals market confidence in the broader investment case for North American nickel supply diversification. For institutional investors evaluating long-cycle exposure to the energy transition, Crawford represents differentiated access to Tier-1 nickel development in a jurisdiction offering regulatory stability, infrastructure access, and alignment with Western supply-chain realignment objectives.

TL;DR

Canada Nickel's oversubscribed C$15 million bought deal, with full exercise of the over-allotment option, demonstrates selective institutional capital flow toward high-quality Western nickel assets. Crawford's Tier-1 scale—3.789 million tonnes of proven and probable reserves—combined with first-quartile costs of US$0.39 per pound and carbon-negative production strategy, positions the project as a strategic anchor in North American critical minerals development. With US$2.8 billion after-tax net present value, National Priority Project designation, and strategic shareholders including Agnico Eagle and Samsung SDI, the company is targeting construction start by year-end 2026. The financing validates investor confidence in Western nickel supply diversification amid Indonesian dominance and accelerating electric vehicle demand supported by Inflation Reduction Act policies.

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