Leadership Shifts, Discovery Hits: Gold Majors Reset as Sterling & Prospector Re-Rate

• Newmont completed a planned CEO succession, while Barrick announced an interim replacement, signalling a broader shift toward growth-oriented leadership in a bull gold market.
• The simultaneous leadership changes have reignited speculation of deeper alignment between the two majors, with Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo as clear focal points.
• Sterling Metals delivered a discovery hole of 262 metres at 1% CuEq at Soo Copper, driving a sharp market re-rating.
• Prospector Metals reported 44 metres at 13 g/t gold and 1.8% copper at Mike Lake, validating years of disciplined geological preparation.
• Midnight Sun Mining’s results at Dumbwa in Zambia underscored the risks of anticipation-driven valuations, as strong copper intercepts failed to meet elevated expectations.

Olive Resource Capital’s weekly Compass show brings institutional investors a front-row seat to the most relevant developments in the mining and metals sector. Hosted by Derek MacPherson, Executive Chairman, and Sam Pelaez, President, CEO and CIO, the program blends market-level insights with on-the-ground portfolio updates. This week’s discussion spans leadership changes at the world’s two largest gold producers and a series of pivotal exploration results across Olive’s holdings.

Leadership Shifts at the Majors

Newmont announced a smooth transition, elevating its COO to CEO in a planned succession that signals continuity after the company’s divestiture program. The timing allows Newmont to pivot into a new phase of growth with stable leadership in place.

Barrick’s decision to appoint an interim CEO marked a sharp contrast. The sudden departure of Mark Bristow leaves the company searching for leadership at a time when gold prices are at record highs. Bristow’s tenure was characterised by a conservative, copper-leaning focus, but with gold’s renewed strength, the board appears to be seeking a shift toward a more aggressive growth profile.

The divergence reflects a broader industry cycle. Conservative stewardship dominated the last downturn; today’s bull market demands leaders willing to pursue M&A and accelerate development pipelines. Barrick’s missed opportunities in recent years have become more visible as peers’ acquisitions have delivered meaningful value.

Strategic Possibilities

The coincidence of both leadership changes on the same day raises questions around alignment. With shared ownership of Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo, industrial synergies already exist. A deeper combination could unlock further value, whether through asset rationalisation or outright consolidation.

Passive flows also provide a strong financial rationale. Newmont’s S&P 500 inclusion - already a top performing S&P500 company in 2025 - would amplify the index weight of any enlarged entity, forcing passive investors to increase their allocations. This structural tailwind would provide a significant uplift in demand for shares. While no formal transaction has been announced, the strategic and financial logic of a larger tie-up remains compelling.

Portfolio Companies In Focus

Sterling Metals – Soo Copper discovery

Sterling Metals reported a standout result of 262 metres grading 1% copper equivalent from its Soo Copper project in Ontario. Situated adjacent to the Trans-Canada Highway, the asset consolidates past-producing ground and benefits from year-round exploration access.

The discovery hole triggered a rapid market reaction, with the stock more than doubling in a single day. Despite this re-rating, Sterling’s market capitalisation remains modest relative to the scale of mineralisation encountered. The success reflects years of groundwork, including detailed geophysics, property-wide surveys, and reinterpretation of historical drilling, which positioned the company for success.

Prospector Metals – Mike Lake Success

Prospector Metals achieved a major discovery at its Mike Lake project, intersecting 44 metres grading 13 g/t gold with 1.8% copper. The share price surged almost 280% over two sessions and has held those gains.

This success was the product of patient and systematic preparation. Prospector, part of the Discovery Group, invested years into refining its geological model through mapping, sampling, and reinterpretation of data before drilling. The disciplined approach, combined with strong financial stewardship, provided the foundation for this breakthrough result.

Midnight Sun Mining – Expectations vs. Results

Midnight Sun Mining released intercepts of nearly 40 metres grading .5% copper at its Dumbwa target in Zambia. While strong in isolation, the results fell short of the market’s lofty expectations after a steep pre-result rally that pushed the valuation close to C$300 million. Shares fell around 20% on the day of release.

The contrast with Sterling and Prospector highlights the importance of starting valuation. Companies that enter discovery with modest market caps can deliver transformative upside on strong results. Where valuations have already anticipated perfection, even positive outcomes can disappoint.

Financing & Outlook

Junior explorers are regaining access to capital, with more than C$100 million raised across the sector in the past week. With seasonal drill programs now underway, investors can expect a steady stream of results into year-end.

For the majors, record gold prices provide a backdrop for more aggressive strategies, including acquisitions and project acceleration. For juniors, management discipline and robust technical foundations remain the decisive factors in creating lasting shareholder value.

TL;DR

Newmont’s orderly succession and Barrick’s abrupt interim appointment highlight a transition from defensive to growth-focused leadership across the gold sector. The same-day changes point to potential strategic alignment, particularly around Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo. Within Olive’s portfolio, Sterling Metals and Prospector Metals delivered genuine discovery holes that re-rated rapidly, while Midnight Sun fell back as elevated expectations collided with reality. Financing conditions are supportive, and Q4 is set for a wave of drill results.

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