Lifezone Metals Advances Toward 2026 Final Investment Decision as Kabanga Execution Milestones Reduce Development Risk

• Lifezone Metals is advancing the Kabanga Nickel Project toward a targeted mid-2026 Final Investment Decision following the completion of a definitive feasibility study outlining first-quartile all-in sustaining costs of $3.36 per pound and an after-tax net present value of $1.58 billion at long-term conservative nickel prices.
• Pre-final investment decision activities are fully funded through a $60 million Taurus bridge facility drawn in stages, allowing engineering, permitting, and financing diligence to proceed simultaneously without operational interruption.
• Structural shifts in Indonesian nickel supply, including licensing regime adjustments and growing western capital withdrawal, are increasing strategic relevance for non-Indonesian sulfide projects with traceable, ESG-aligned supply chains.
• Execution risk now concentrates primarily around financing closure, final regulatory approvals, and engineering, procurement, and construction management mobilisation rather than geology, metallurgy, or infrastructure availability.
• Investors evaluating Kabanga must assess whether management can convert feasibility economics into funded construction without timeline slippage or capital structure stress, with the mid-2026 final investment decision representing the most significant near-term valuation inflection point.

Nickel's Supply Realignment & the Execution Premium

Nickel markets over the past two years have been shaped by rapid Indonesian supply growth, driven by Chinese investment in laterite operations that pressured prices and margins globally. The downturn prompted strategic withdrawals by majors such as BHP, which wrote off Nickel West and exited development commitments, including its Kabanga stake.

This shift is changing how investors and government lenders assess risk. Projects lacking construction readiness, secure supply chain alignment, and bankable economics are increasingly overlooked, while advanced developments attracting institutional and multilateral support, including Kabanga, are gaining attention.

Indonesian Supply Concentration & the Western Supply Chain Response

Indonesia’s growing dominance in nickel supply is becoming increasingly significant, with production potentially reaching 75-80% of global output if current development trends continue. Much of that material flows through Chinese-backed processing infrastructure, limiting availability for Western defense, aerospace, and battery supply chains seeking traceable sources.

In response, governments participating in the Minerals Security Partnership have intensified due diligence on alternative supply projects. Lifezone Metals has progressed well into that process through ongoing engagement with development finance institutions and export credit agencies.

Ingo Hofmaier, Chief Financial Officer of Lifezone Metals, describes the supply chain dynamic:

"We are in regular touch with European capitals, Washington and Tokyo through the Minerals Security Partnership. There’s a very strong realization or understanding in these places that this is a strategic asset. If the development continues in Indonesia you will have 75 to 80 percent. Which in one sense is also good because everyone starts to lobby Indonesia around profitable growth."

Sulfide Economics as a Cost Curve Differentiator

The difference between sulfide and laterite processing has clear economic implications. Indonesian laterite operations process ore without upgrading, while Kabanga’s ~1.92% nickel sulfide ore is concentrated to about 17-18% nickel before pressure oxidation, reducing processing volumes and eliminating the need for externally supplied sulfuric acid,  a cost advantage amid higher sulfur prices.

Combined with copper and cobalt byproduct credits, this supports Kabanga’s first-quartile cost position at about $3.36/lb AISC, providing resilience across commodity price cycles.

What Lifezone Has De-Risked Ahead of Final Investment Decision

Institutional investors approaching development-stage projects typically distinguish between geological risk, technical risk, infrastructure risk, and execution risk. In Kabanga's case, the first three categories have been materially reduced.

Feasibility Study Completion & Bankability

The July 2025 definitive feasibility study marked the first public, fully bankable assessment of Kabanga’s economics. Built on roughly $435 million of historical investment and nearly 600,000 meters of drilling across a 7.5-kilometer strike, the study declared about 50 million tonnes of reserves grading 1.92% nickel. It outlined a $1.58 billion NPV, 23.3% after-tax IRR, and an 18-year initial mine life with expansion potential.

Hofmaier contextualizes what publication means for the financing process:

"For the first time now we have financial numbers in the public space, and that can go to brokers and get research models. You have a fully bankable study, you have reserves out there, and it’s now very visible how this high-grade deposit translates into the financial returns. We entered a new era on the 18th of July when we released the feasibility study."

Pre-Final Investment Decision Funding

The $60 million Taurus bridge facility, closed in August 2025, funds project financing, execution readiness, engineering, and tendering work. As of the interview, $20 million had been drawn, with further funding tied to three-month forward spending and completion of the joint financial model with the Tanzanian government, which Hofmaier described as nearing finalization.

Importantly, the facility allows engineering, permitting, and lender due diligence to advance in parallel, avoiding the stop-start delays common in development-stage projects and supporting progress toward FID.

Permitting & ESG Compliance as Financing Prerequisites

Permitting and environmental compliance are often treated as secondary considerations in development-stage analysis. In practice, multilateral and export credit agency lenders place significant weight on environmental, social, and governance completion before committing to project financing.

Regulatory Completion Status

Kabanga holds a life-of-mine Special Mining Licence and most operational permits required to begin construction. The Environmental and Social Impact Assessment is complete, with final approval of the Environmental and Social Management Plan viewed by Hofmaier as a near-term step rather than a structural risk. Remaining licenses are expected to follow construction milestones under a phased permitting process.

Hofmaier is direct on the permitting question:

"Permitting is for the Kabanga project not a risk element anymore. We have a mining license for the life of the asset. There are very few licenses still outstanding and the ones we need will come when we need them, for instance, only once you have actually built the operation."

The Environmental and Social Impact Assessment aligns with International Finance Corporation performance standards, meeting key requirements for multilateral lenders and European export credit agencies.

Community Programs & Resettlement

Resettlement often delays African mining projects, but Kabanga reports about 97% compensation completion, with livelihood restoration and workforce programs underway. Achieving this progress ahead of financial close reduces the risk of social license disruptions during construction.

Financing Structure: The Largest Remaining Execution Gate

Project financing for roughly $950 million in capex, rising to about $1.2 billion including capitalized costs, remains the key execution dependency, with debt closure timing critical to achieving a mid-2026 FID.

Multi-Track Financing Coordination

Lifezone is pursuing multi-source financing involving export credit agencies, development finance institutions including the US DFC, sovereign lenders, and commercial banks. Engagement through the Minerals Security Partnership has advanced lender discussions, with DFC due diligence publicly confirmed.

Hofmaier describes the financing logic:

"Because of the high grade and therefore the high profitability, the debt capacity of the project is quite high. After several rounds of discussions with lenders, we expect it will be around 60-40, debt to equity. The project financing approach hasn't really changed because of BHP's exit, but it means we probably have to find some form of partnership again for the equity check."

Equity Gap Following BHP's Exit

BHP’s July 2025 exit removed a $90 million strategic partner but deferred cash obligations, with a $10 million payment due 12 months after FID and a further $28 million tied to Lifezone’s share price after commercial production. The structure preserves balance sheet flexibility during financing.

The exit also creates a need for a new equity partner. With 100% offtake restored, Lifezone is better positioned to negotiate with potential partners, particularly Western smelters seeking traceable, non-Indonesian nickel supply.

Infrastructure & Jurisdiction: The Structural De-Risking of Tanzania

Perceptions of Tanzania as a development jurisdiction have historically embedded a significant risk discount relative to the project's fundamental economics. That discount is becoming increasingly difficult to justify on the infrastructure and regulatory dimensions.

Grid Power & Rail Connectivity

Tanzania has advanced key infrastructure upgrades that reduce Kabanga’s development risk. The standard gauge railway from Dar es Salaam to Lake Victoria is partially operational, with new rolling stock in service and completion expected ahead of the project timeline.

On power, three new hydroelectric plants have improved national reliability, allowing Kabanga to connect to the grid after previously relying on diesel generators. Monthly availability is reported at 95-98%, with further transmission upgrades planned alongside construction.

Hofmaier frames the infrastructure evolution:

"The game changer here in terms of de-risk in the project was not the drilling. The drilling will come and produce good results,  no questions about that. The upgrade of the railway network to standard gauge and the improvements in power supply have been real changes. Tanzania has had no electricity shortages in the last couple of years, and we have had no blackouts. Tanzania is expected to become an exporter of electricity in the next couple of years."

Government Partnership Structure

The Tanzanian government holds a 16% carried interest in Kabanga without funding development costs, while operational control remains with Lifezone. The structure aligns state support without creating capital dependency, with government involvement focused on permitting and resettlement. Finalizing the framework agreement and joint financial model is the key condition for the next bridge facility drawdown.

Where Execution Risk Remains

Acknowledging what has been de-risked requires equal precision about what has not. Three execution risk categories remain material for investors.

Financing Timeline Risk

Multi-source financing involving export credit agencies, development lenders, and commercial banks adds coordination complexity, with differing timelines and due diligence requirements that may not align with a mid-2026 FID. Commodity price movements could also affect lender appetite and debt sizing. While financing delays of six to twelve months would not be unusual for a project of this scale, they could impact return timing and create balance sheet pressure if bridge funding needs extension.

Construction Transition Risk

The shift from study completion to EPCM mobilisation introduces typical development-stage execution risk. Kabanga’s underground open stoping design is well defined through extensive technical studies and peer benchmarking, but contractor selection and mobilisation in northwestern Tanzania will require careful planning. Engineering team and EPCM partner choices remain key near-term decisions.

Commodity Market Exposure

Kabanga's economics are robust at current nickel prices, but project financing terms will reference forward price assumptions and cost curve positioning. Further deterioration in nickel prices, driven by Indonesian supply growth, could affect debt sizing, coverage ratios, and the equity valuation that underpins Lifezone's ability to attract a project-level partner on acceptable terms. The company's first-quartile cost structure provides meaningful downside protection, but it does not eliminate commodity sensitivity in the financing process.

The Investment Thesis for Lifezone Metals

• First-quartile AISC of about $3.36/lb, net of byproducts, supports margins across a wide nickel price range, including recent lows.
• High-grade, non-Indonesian sulfide supply with traceable custody aligns with Western smelters and industrial buyers seeking diversified supply chains under MSP frameworks.
• Advanced permitting, including a life-of-mine Special Mining Licence, completed ESIA, and near-complete resettlement, removes key early-stage regulatory risks common in African developments.
• Active due diligence from the US DFC and multiple European and Japanese export credit agencies provides diversified financing pathways.
• A roughly 4.5-year payback and 18-year mine life with expansion potential support long-duration institutional return profiles.
• A mid-2026 FID could mark one of the first large-scale, non-Indonesian battery-grade nickel sulfide construction commitments in the current supply cycle.

The 600,000 meters of historical drilling, $435 million in predecessor investment, and a fully bankable July 2025 feasibility study have resolved the questions that historically kept the asset from reaching financial close. The asset's grade, scale, cost structure, and strategic positioning in a supply-constrained western nickel market are established with a level of rigor sufficient for multilateral lender due diligence.

What remains is execution: financing coordination across multiple sovereign and institutional counterparties, final regulatory approvals, and the organizational transition from study management to construction delivery. These are not trivial challenges, and their resolution over the next twelve months will determine whether the mid-2026 final investment decision holds and whether Lifezone can convert one of the world's most advanced undeveloped nickel assets into a producing operation.

For investors, the analytical question is straightforward: whether the execution momentum currently in place is sufficient to bring a uniquely positioned critical mineral asset through its final development gate on schedule.

TL;DR

Lifezone Metals is advancing the Kabanga Nickel Project toward a targeted mid-2026 Final Investment Decision as feasibility completion, permitting progress, infrastructure improvements, and secured pre-FID funding materially reduce traditional development risks. A July 2025 bankable feasibility study confirmed first-quartile costs of about $3.36/lb AISC, a $1.58 billion after-tax NPV, and an 18-year mine life, positioning Kabanga as a large-scale, high-grade sulfide alternative to increasingly concentrated Indonesian supply chains. Environmental approvals, near-complete resettlement, grid power access, and railway upgrades in Tanzania have further de-risked execution, while engagement with export credit agencies, development finance institutions, and sovereign lenders supports a multi-track financing strategy. Remaining risks center on financing coordination, EPCM mobilisation, and nickel price sensitivity ahead of debt closure, with the mid-2026 FID representing the key valuation inflection point determining whether Lifezone converts a strategically important undeveloped asset into construction-stage execution.

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