NioCorp Developments: Advancing Niobium & Scandium Project Toward 2026 Financing & Construction

• NioCorp raised over $370 million in 2025, including a $10 million US Department of War grant, and has commenced detailed engineering for a $45 million underground mine portal project starting February 2026.
• The company expects to secure binding commitments from the US Export-Import Bank for project financing (targeting 65% debt, 35% equity on $780 million) by Q2 2026, with the bank operating at "Trump speed" after designating NioCorp as a top priority.
• Non-Chinese rare earth prices have surged dramatically - NdPr at $110-120/kg (vs. $55/kg in July 2025) and heavy rare earths like dysprosium at $1,250/kg outside China (vs. $250/kg inside), significantly improving project economics ahead of the mid-March feasibility study update.
• The Elk Creek project will produce four critical minerals - niobium (75% under offtake), scandium (12 tons/year contracted), titanium, and magnetic rare earths - generating approximately $700 in revenue per ton of ore against $225-250 processing costs.
• NioCorp is in discussions with the US Department of War for support similar to MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, while building a complete scandium supply chain and exploring downstream opportunities in niobium pentoxide and rare earth metal production.

NioCorp Developments stands at a pivotal juncture as the company transitions from development to construction of its Elk Creek critical minerals project in southeast Nebraska. With over $300 million in the bank following a record fundraising year and accelerating engagement with the US Export-Import Bank, the company is positioning itself to capitalise on surging rare earth prices and growing US government support for domestic critical mineral supply chains. The project's significance extends beyond typical mining ventures, as it addresses 100% import dependence for several strategic materials including niobium, scandium, and heavy rare earths essential to defense, aerospace, and advanced manufacturing applications.

Record Capital Raise Enables Portal Construction

NioCorp's 2025 performance was defined by successful capital formation, with Executive Chairman and CEO Mark Smith reporting that the company raised over $370 million during the calendar year. This included a strategically important $10 million grant from the Department of Defense, which funded a drilling program specifically designed to upgrade reserves from probable to proven status - a critical requirement for Export-Import Bank financing. The grant also supported engineering upgrades for the company's new process flow diagram, ensuring that technical specifications reach feasibility study standards.

With this capital cushion, NioCorp's board has approved commencement of the "portal project," a $45 million undertaking that will establish access from the surface into the underground limestone formation. Detailed engineering has been underway for over a month, with earth-moving operations scheduled to begin February 1, 2026. This nine-to-ten-month effort demonstrates management confidence in securing full project financing within four to five months, putting construction ahead of schedule and positioning the company for a formal groundbreaking ceremony that Smith anticipates will attract thousands of shareholders.

Accelerated Export-Import Bank Engagement

Perhaps the most significant development is the dramatic acceleration in discussions with the US Export-Import Bank. After two and a half years of extensive due diligence - which Smith characterises as exceeding anything he's encountered in his career - the bank designated NioCorp as a "very top priority project" during a December 2025 meeting. The bank subsequently requested that NioCorp draft the binding term sheet that has been the focus of ongoing negotiations.

Smith reports a remarkable shift in engagement intensity: 

"In the last two weeks, I have received more emails and more phone calls from EXIM than I did in all of 2025. They are now moving at what we like to call ‘Trump speed’ with this loan process." 

The company is conducting page-turn sessions on the draft binding term sheet this week, with follow-up meetings scheduled, as it works toward a target of 65% debt to 35% equity financing structure on a $780 million loan (based on the 2022 capex estimate of $1.2 billion). Smith expresses confidence that full project financing, including both EXIM debt and equity components, can be completed before the end of Q2 2026, though he acknowledges his tendency toward optimism and notes that timelines can vary.

Transformed Rare Earth Economics

The economics of NioCorp's project have been fundamentally enhanced by the bifurcation of rare earth markets following increased US government intervention and Chinese export restrictions. The company's updated feasibility study, expected in mid-to-late March 2026, will incorporate dramatically higher rare earth prices that have emerged over the past year.

For neodymium-praseodymium oxide (NdPr), prices have doubled from approximately $55 per kilogram in July 2025 to a current range of $110-120 per kilogram outside China, following the US government's establishment of a $110/kg price floor for MP Materials. Chinese domestic prices have risen to $95/kg, creating a pricing differential that Smith believes Chinese producers welcome. The divergence is even more pronounced for heavy rare earths: dysprosium trades at $1,250/kg outside China versus $250/kg domestically, while terbium commands $4,000/kg internationally compared to $800-1,000/kg in China. These price supports and export restrictions have created what Smith describes as "phenomenal" pricing splits that will substantially enhance project economics.

While acknowledging that construction cost inflation will negatively impact capital expenditure estimates, Smith emphasises the project's robust margins: 

"We've got over $700 worth of pay metals in each ton of ore that we bring up from the underground. That will cost us about $225 to $250 per ton to process that ore and get that metal out. That's a huge margin."

Interview with Mark Smith, Executive Chairman, NioCorp Developments

Diversified Revenue Streams Reduce Risk

Unlike pure-play rare earth projects, NioCorp's diversification across four critical mineral categories provides revenue stability and risk mitigation. Niobium, which represents the project's primary target and approximately the largest revenue component, benefits from exceptional price stability at around $50 per kilogram - a level maintained for considerable time. The company has secured definitive, enforceable offtake agreements covering three-quarters of its ferroniobium production, providing revenue certainty for debt financing purposes.

Scandium represents perhaps the most intriguing opportunity, with the company targeting 100 tons per year of production - roughly triple current global supply outside China. Smith disputes concerns about market saturation, arguing instead that "there is latent demand for this mineral" that vastly exceeds current and projected supply. Applications span defense (where NioCorp is working with Lockheed Martin and other contractors), aerospace, and automotive sectors. The company has already secured a definitive offtake agreement for 12 tons per year and reports that one automotive application in Germany could potentially absorb 100% of production. Non-Chinese scandium pricing ranges from $2,000-3,000 per kilogram versus approximately $700/kg in China.

Titanium, where the US imports roughly 85% of supply, provides additional revenue diversification, while the rare earth component - expected to contribute approximately 26% of total revenue - offers upside exposure to critical magnet materials without the concentration risk of rare earth-focused projects.

Strategic Off-take Development

Securing sufficient offtake agreements remains a critical near-term priority as NioCorp works to satisfy Export-Import Bank requirements for binding commitments. The company is pursuing two parallel strategies: negotiating individual enforceable agreements with end-users, and exploring a comprehensive agreement whereby a single party would take all production not currently under contract.

Smith acknowledges the complexity of securing enforceable commitments from individual companies for a project that remains three years from operation: 

"It's actually quite complicated to get individual companies to take enforceable offtake agreements with a project that isn't fully financed and has three years of construction to go." 

He distinguishes sharply between non-binding letters of intent - which he characterises as easy to obtain - and the enforceable agreements that provide the revenue certainty required for project financing. The company expects to announce multiple offtake agreements between now and April 2026 to ensure adequate debt capacity.

Government Partnership Philosophy

NioCorp is actively engaged with the Department of Defense regarding potential support arrangements similar to those recently announced for USA Rare Earth, MP Materials, and Lithium Americas. Smith frames government intervention not as concerning overreach but as necessary correction to Chinese market dominance achieved through sustained subsidisation and strategic price manipulation.

"It's courageous of the US government to do that and it stops this cycle that we keep going through with China lowering prices, getting 100% market share, letting prices go up until junior miners can get financing, and then as soon as financing is just about done, they pull the market their way again."

He views price supports as providing a protective period - typically ten years - during which US companies can develop competitive advantages while creating domestic supply chains.

Rather than viewing government equity participation as problematic, Smith sees strategic benefits: credibility with other investors, access to a partner with substantial resources, and elimination of constant market financing pressures. He emphasises that government stakes remain minority positions (5-15%) that provide voice without commanding control, characterising the arrangement as partnership rather than nationalisation.

Downstream Integration Strategy

NioCorp is selectively pursuing vertical integration where it addresses supply chain gaps or serves national security interests. For scandium, the company is committed to a complete domestic supply chain, having invested $8.4 million to acquire aluminum-scandium master alloy assets and intellectual property. The company has demonstrated the capability to produce the 0.1-2% scandium-content alloys that end-users require, in partnership with IBC Advanced Alloys in Indiana.

For niobium, NioCorp plans to begin with ferroniobium production due to broad customer specifications, but intends to move downstream into high-purity niobium pentoxide - a material desired by the Department of Defense and MRI manufacturers - and ultimately niobium metal, which offers the highest margins in the niobium space. Smith is clear about boundaries: 

"We won't become a competitor to a customer. That's very central to me."

In rare earths, the company is exploring metal production to address a significant supply chain gap, as current production is concentrated in Vietnam, China, and limited operations at Less Common Metals in the UK. NioCorp believes its scandium metal process may be adaptable to rare earth metal production, with testing currently underway.

Competitive Positioning and Market Outlook

Smith positions NioCorp as complementary to, rather than competitive with, other US rare earth developers. He acknowledges MP Materials' world-class light rare earth ore body, but notes limitations in heavy rare earth production from that deposit. Similarly, USA Rare Earth focuses primarily on light rare earths and magnet manufacturing.

NioCorp's heavy rare earth capability - particularly for dysprosium and terbium essential to high-temperature permanent magnets - positions the company as a critical supplier to both MP Materials and USA Rare Earth as they develop magnet manufacturing operations. Smith emphasises that even combined production from current and planned operations will not satisfy total US demand, making multiple supply sources necessary rather than excessive.

The company's rare earth production addresses only a fraction of US requirements, supporting Smith's confidence in market absorption. He views rare earth revenue as enhancing rather than defining the project, with the stability of niobium and titanium revenues providing downside protection against rare earth price volatility.

The Investment Thesis for NioCorp Developments

• Fully Funded Development Phase: With over $300 million in cash and the $45 million portal project representing the only pre-financing construction commitment, NioCorp has eliminated near-term funding risk while maintaining substantial liquidity through anticipated Q2 2026 project financing close
• Exceptional Project Economics: Gross margin of approximately $450-475 per ton of ore ($700 revenue vs. $225-250 processing costs) on one million tons annual throughput provides substantial cushion against capital cost inflation and commodity price volatility
• Rare Earth Pricing Inflection: Non-Chinese rare earth prices have doubled to tripled since mid-2025, with government price floors and Chinese export restrictions creating sustained pricing differentials that will be incorporated in March 2026 feasibility study update
• De-Risked Financing Path: After 2.5 years of due diligence, US Export-Import Bank has designated NioCorp as top priority with accelerated engagement ("Trump speed"), targeting 65/35 debt-to-equity structure providing approximately $780 million in debt financing
• Revenue Diversification: Four distinct critical mineral revenue streams (niobium ~40%+, rare earths ~26%, scandium, titanium) reduce concentration risk, with niobium providing exceptional price stability and 75% of ferroniobium production under definitive offtake agreements
• Strategic Government Partnership Potential: Active Department of Defense negotiations for support arrangements similar to MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, and Lithium Americas, with company well-positioned given multiple critical minerals at single site addressing 100% import dependence
• Supply Chain Criticality: Project addresses complete US import dependence for niobium, scandium, dysprosium, and terbium, with production insufficient to meet domestic demand even when combined with other planned US operations
• Scandium Market Creation: 100 tons annual scandium production (3x current ex-China supply) positions company to capture latent demand from defense, aerospace, and automotive applications, with acquisition of master alloy capabilities generating immediate customer inquiries
• Heavy Rare Earth Advantage: Dysprosium and terbium production addresses critical supply gap for high-temperature permanent magnets, positioning NioCorp as essential supplier to domestic magnet manufacturers including MP Materials and USA Rare Earth
• Valuation Disconnect: Despite 350-400% share price appreciation over past year, management views current valuation as significantly below intrinsic value based on project economics, with catalysts including March feasibility study, offtake announcements (through April), EXIM binding commitment (Q2), and potential DoD support announcement
• Near-Term Catalyst Pipeline: Multiple value-recognition events scheduled including feasibility study update (mid-late March), offtake agreement announcements (February-April), EXIM binding term sheet (Q2 2026), and potential Department of Defense support announcement

Macro Thematic Analysis

The US government's intervention in critical mineral markets represents a fundamental shift from free-market principles toward strategic industrial policy, driven by recognition that Chinese dominance in processing and refining creates unacceptable supply chain vulnerabilities for defense, technology, and energy transition applications. Price floors, equity investments, and direct grants are establishing protected development periods allowing domestic producers to achieve scale and develop competitive advantages without facing the cyclical price manipulation that has historically prevented Western mining projects from reaching production. 

This approach acknowledges that China's subsidised pricing and integrated supply chains cannot be competed against through purely capitalistic means, requiring government partnership to re-establish regional supply chains. Smith captures the strategic imperative: "These products need to be available in regional markets now, not worldwide markets. And that's where all these economies are headed." The policy framework creates sustained pricing support while maintaining private ownership and operational control, enabling companies like NioCorp to justify the substantial capital investments required for complex critical mineral projects. 

As protection periods are time-limited (typically ten years), the approach incentivises technological innovation and operational efficiency rather than creating permanent dependence, balancing near-term support with long-term competitiveness requirements for a post-subsidy environment.

TL;DR: Executive Summary

NioCorp Developments is advancing toward Q2 2026 project financing with over $300 million in cash, accelerated US Export-Import Bank engagement, and dramatically improved rare earth economics featuring non-Chinese dysprosium prices at $1,250/kg (vs. $250/kg in China) and NDPR at $110-120/kg. The Elk Creek project offers exceptional margins ($700 revenue vs. $225-250 costs per ton) across four diversified critical minerals addressing 100% US import dependence, with 75% of ferroniobium production under definitive offtake and active Department of Defense negotiations for support arrangements similar to MP Materials and USA Rare Earth.

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