Noboa’s Reelection Signals Green Light for Ecuador’s Mining Sector

Daniel Noboa’s reelection as President of Ecuador in 2025 marks a pivotal moment for the country’s mining industry. As the youngest president in Ecuador’s history, Noboa continues to position the nation on a pro-investment path that is increasingly attractive to international mining companies and investors. His administration has shown a unique combination of political pragmatism, administrative execution, and investor-friendly policy—traits that are vital for a sector long hampered by uncertainty.

While Ecuador is known for its mineral potential—hosting rich deposits of copper, gold, and silver—investors have historically been cautious due to the country’s regulatory volatility, social unrest, and stalled permitting processes. However, with Noboa’s reelection, expectations are rising that this cycle of stagnation may finally be breaking.

A Political Mandate for Execution

Noboa secured his reelection in April 2025 with a decisive 55.6% of the vote, extending his presidency beyond the 18 months he served to complete Guillermo Lasso’s interrupted term. His center-right National Democratic Action (ADN) party now holds a slim but workable majority in Ecuador’s National Assembly. This alignment between the executive and legislative branches is unprecedented in recent years and offers something the country has lacked for a long time: governability.

Andrés Ycaza, a prominent Ecuadorian mining lawyer at Flor, Bustamante, Pizarro & Hurtado, emphasized this:

“For the first time in a long time, Ecuador has obtained what it needed: governability. The government has a majority, it is aligned with the legislative branch, and there is a plan under execution. Noboa is hyper-executional.”

This administrative efficiency is being felt across multiple sectors, but nowhere more clearly than in mining.

Mining Projects Set to Advance

Under Noboa’s first term, a number of dormant or stalled projects began moving again. This trend is expected to accelerate during his second term. According to Ycaza, several next-generation mining projects that were first proposed when the cadastre was last open are now poised to enter development or even production:

• Silvercorp Metals’ Condor Project
  A multi-deposit gold-silver project with a promising resource base, Condor is expected to benefit from increased political and regulatory support, particularly with Silvercorp’s acquisition of Adventus Mining, which also includes the El Domo project.
• Solaris Resources’ Warintza Project
  Located in southeastern Ecuador, Warintza is one of the country's most high-profile copper exploration projects. Solaris signed an Investment Protection Agreement with the government, offering security and incentives. With continued engagement of local communities and progress on environmental assessments, it could transition toward construction later this decade.
• Sunstone Metals’ Bramaderos Project
  This gold-copper project is poised for aggressive advancement. Its location and exploration success have placed it on investor radars. Sunstone’s dual focus on Bramaderos and its Limon project positions it well for growth if the cadastre reopens.

These projects stand to benefit from two critical changes at the political level: an aligned executive and legislature, and a government that is demonstrating a will to execute.

Case Study: Loma Larga—A New Precedent

Perhaps the clearest sign of Noboa’s executional capability is the recent progress at Dundee Precious Metals’ Loma Larga gold-copper project. After years of legal limbo, the government completed all four requirements mandated by Ecuador’s Constitutional Court, including a comprehensive prior consultation process with affected communities.

“This is the first time in Ecuador that the state has completed the requirements of a constitutional court ruling related to mining projects,” Ycaza noted. “On other occasions, such as Rio Blanco and Llurimagua, the state didn’t act, and ended up in international arbitration.”

Now, Dundee awaits the lifting of a work suspension by the Ministry of Environment and the issuance of an environmental license. This will allow the company to advance an updated feasibility study and move toward an exploitation contract—critical steps toward construction.

The precedent set at Loma Larga could serve as a model for other projects dealing with constitutional, environmental, or community-related hurdles.

Pipeline of Projects Growing

Several additional mining projects are lining up for advancement during Noboa’s second term:

• El Domo (Silvercorp) – Now under construction, this polymetallic project is among the few in Ecuador actively building infrastructure.
• La Plata (Atico Mining) – Awaits final environmental licensing, with all other consultations completed.
• Cangrejos (Lumina Gold) – CMOC of China is in the process of acquiring this gold project, with production targeted for 2026–2027.
• Cascabel (SolGold) – Long expected to be Ecuador’s flagship copper project, Cascabel could finally break ground in the latter half of the decade.
• San Carlos Panantza (Ecuacorriente) – A prior consultation process is underway, and the company is also negotiating expansion of its Mirador copper mine.

This pipeline reflects the renewed momentum in Ecuador’s mining sector. For investors, it represents both near-term opportunities and longer-term growth potential.

Reopening the Cadastre: Unlocking Exploration

Perhaps the most eagerly anticipated move under Noboa is the reopening of the mining cadastre, which has remained closed since 2018. The cadastre’s closure prevented new concessions from being granted and effectively froze exploration activity in a country rich with untapped mineral potential.

While previous governments made promises to reopen it, none delivered. Noboa’s administration has taken concrete steps:

• The government has updated all necessary geological data.
• A contract with a North American firm to modernize the cadastre platform is underway.
• A target date of 2026 has been set for full reopening.

Ycaza noted that even though Noboa’s original timeline for a 2024 reopening was missed, there is now a detailed plan under execution—a significant improvement over prior administrations' empty pledges.

Still unknown is whether Ecuador will retain the Swiss Challenge model, where concession applications can be contested by rival bids. While transparent in theory, this system was viewed as discouraging to first movers due to permitting delays and unclear enforcement.

Risks and ESG Considerations

Despite progress, Ecuador’s mining sector continues to face environmental, social, and governance (ESG) challenges.

Notably, some Indigenous groups and NGOs have voiced concerns over projects in ecologically sensitive areas, such as Warintza. There is also skepticism about the transparency of environmental consultations and the adequacy of local benefits.

Furthermore, while crime reduction is a pillar of Noboa’s broader economic agenda—Ecuador’s murder rate rose sharply during the pandemic—security concerns in rural regions may deter some investors.

To address these issues, Noboa has proposed:

• Strengthening environmental oversight while streamlining permitting.
• Increasing fiscal revenues from mining through royalty and tax optimization.
• Prioritizing infrastructure investments in mining regions to ensure shared benefits.

Macroeconomic and Investment Climate

From a macroeconomic standpoint, Ecuador’s financial position is stabilizing under Noboa. His administration reached a $4 billion deal with the IMF to address a yawning budget deficit of $4.6 billion and support key structural reforms. This includes efforts to improve tax collection, reduce fuel subsidies, and boost infrastructure.

This fiscal discipline, combined with a low inflation rate and dollarized economy, adds to Ecuador’s appeal for long-term capital investment—particularly in capital-intensive industries like mining.

Ecuador also signed several bilateral Investment Protection Agreements with countries like Canada, Chile, and Switzerland, strengthening legal recourse and protections for foreign mining companies.

Outlook: A Unique Window for Mining Investment

With Noboa's reelection, Ecuador enters a potentially transformative four-year period. The country is now governed by an administration that understands the strategic importance of mining, is taking tangible steps to clear bureaucratic bottlenecks, and is crafting a stable regulatory environment conducive to exploration and development.

Investors—especially those looking to enter frontier copper and gold markets—should be watching closely.

“We now have more projects in the pipeline,” said Ycaza. “The fact that the government is disposed to keep pushing projects ahead shows there’s a clear will to execute.”

For Ecuador, and its mining industry, the message from the 2025 elections is clear: the green light is on.