• Recent trade tensions and tariffs have disrupted metals markets, causing short-term price volatility but potentially creating long-term opportunities for companies with strategic positioning.
• Critical minerals including rare earths, titanium, copper, and nickel face supply chain challenges due to Chinese dominance, prompting Western nations to pursue alternative sources and strategic investments.
• Government and non-Chinese funding support for critical minerals is accelerating globally, starting with the US implementing its Executive Order to boost domestic production through funding, expedited permitting, and strategic initiatives.
• Companies focused in one or many of the critical minerals are advancing significant projects across rare earths, titanium, copper, lithium, and potash.
• The investment thesis for critical minerals remains strong despite market volatility, supported by supply chain diversification needs, government funding, technical barriers to entry, and growing demand from energy transition and defense applications.

The geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and recognition of supply chain vulnerabilities have dramatically elevated the squeeze on critical minerals—rare earths, titanium, copper, and nickel. These have emerged as crucial components in the global push toward energy transition, defense applications, and technological advancement.

The global market for critical minerals has been largely dominated by Chinese production and processing capabilities, particularly for rare earth elements crucial to defense applications and electric vehicles. This concentration of supply has prompted Western nations and companies to pursue alternative sources and supply chain.

The Market Dynamics in Trade Tensions

Recent tariff announcements have significantly disrupted global metals markets, with nickel prices retreating to 2020 levels at approximately $14,000 per ton. As industry expert Mark Selby observed,

"Trump's done a great job basically wiping out the entire base metal complex, including nickel. So in the last few days here, we've taken prices all the way back to 2020 levels."

This price volatility reflects immediate market uncertainty rather than fundamental weakness in nickel's supply-demand dynamics. The implementation of wide-ranging tariffs has created confusion throughout supply chains that have developed over decades.

Mark Selby, CEO Canada Nickel Corp

Despite this near-term volatility, the market appears to be approaching what industry experts call the "grand convergence," where various production methods approach cost parity. Current nickel prices have fallen well into the cost curve, suggesting limited additional downside potential. This cost-driven floor provides relative protection compared to other metals.

While near-term volatility persists, the fundamental supply-demand dynamics remain supportive of stable to higher prices once policy clarity emerges. As Mark Selby succinctly observes:

"This is some short-term pain, but this is, again, perversely super helpful for any of us in the critical mineral space who can sell our stuff anywhere in the world outside the United States."

Government Support and Strategic Funding

Policy developments in the United States have significantly strengthened the position of domestic critical mineral producers. The recent tariff announcements impacts with similar trends noted by Mark Selby in the nickel sector:

"This Trump nonsense basically just reinforces that stack [of government funding] is going to show up much more vigorously and much more quickly than it had before."

For companies like American Critical Minerals, with projects addressing multiple critical minerals (both potash and lithium), developments create significant opportunities for accelerated permitting and financial support. President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order aimed at accelerating domestic production of critical minerals, including potash and lithium. American Critical Minerals Corp., which is developing the Green River Potash and Lithium Project in Utah, has welcomed this development.

In a news release, President and CEO of American Critical Minerals, Simon Clarke expresses the company's take,

"We are delighted that Potash is now being officially treated as a Critical Mineral in the US. Given the growth in domestic agriculture, and the fact that potash is the major ingredient in all key fertilizers, it is clear that being reliant on foreign powers for over 92% of the potash it consumes is a threat to US Food Security."

The Executive Order includes several provisions that could directly benefit critical mineral projects, including invoking the Defense Production Act, facilitating buyer agreements, expediting procurement, accelerating access to private and public capital, and creating a Dedicated Mineral and Mineral Production Fund for Domestic Investments administered by the Development Finance Corporation.

Pensana's Chairman Paul Atherley added his observation highlighting EXIM's support (to Rare Element Resources) to increase the american mineral production including rare earths:

"There is some great work being done by EXIM Bank. They have just announced a strategic critical minerals resource initiative, it's to realign supply chains to the US."

Strategic Adaptations to Trade Disruptions

Companies with production flexibility across different markets hold advantages during this period of trade uncertainty. For critical mineral producers, the ability to sell into multiple markets provides resilience against market disruptions. As Selby confirms, "All of this Trump stuff is net-net long-term helpful for us" in terms of accelerating government funding and support for critical mineral projects outside the US market.

This disruption presents strategic opportunities for those positioned correctly in the market. Companies that can redirect production to markets outside the United States face less exposure to tariff impacts. For development-stage projects, governmental support is likely to increase as nations prioritize domestic supply chains.

Pensana's Chairman, Paul Atherley, articulates a strategic approach beyond simple resource extraction:

"The issue is, do you mine your product and sell at the mine gates and basically dig and ship to China, which has all the mid-stream processing, or do you start to go downstream?" [Pensana has chosen to] go all the way down to produce a mixed rare earth carbonate, which is a midstream product, which can then be sent to - doesn't necessarily have to go to China - somewhere else to be turned into an oxide and ultimately a metal."

Paul Atherley, CEO of Pensana

Emerging Critical Minerals Projects

Lithium

Technical advancements are supporting development prospects. American Critical Minerals highlighted the success of neighboring Anson Resources' Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) pilot with Koch Technology Solutions, which achieved a 98% lithium recovery rate and over 99% rejection of brine contaminants. This success has positive implications for American Critical Minerals' Green River Project, which shares geological characteristics with Anson's property. The Paradox Basin in Utah, where the Green River Project is located, represents a strategic domestic resource, potentially containing up to 56 billion tonnes of lithium brines.

Titanium

Several significant critical mineral projects are advancing toward development. Empire Metals has discovered what they claim is the world's largest titanium deposit in Western Australia, with an exploration target of approximately 26-32 billion tons of ore. Managing Director Shaun Bunn emphasizes the project's strategic significance:

"This story resonates with the investment community now. They're starting to understand again having the world's largest system full of titanium, having the location being one of the world's best places to build a large mine, and put the backdrop now with the emerging political importance of these critical materials."

Shaun Bunn, MD of Empire Metals

Copper

In the copper sector, Mogotes Metals is positioned adjacent to Filo Mining's Filo del Sol discovery, which was recently acquired by BHP-Lundin for C$4.5 billion. The company is finalizing plans for its first comprehensive drill program to begin in October 2025. CEO Allen Sabet outlines their strategic advantage:

"We're next to probably the biggest potentially the biggest future copper mine in the world. We've locked up strategically over the last two years any open ground that was there and now we've closed that with our most recent transaction."

Allen Sabet, CEO of Magotes Metals

Rare Earths

Pensana PLC is developing the Longonjo rare earth project in Angola, described by Chairman Paul Atherley as one of the world's largest undeveloped rare earth project containing in excess of 100,000 tons of this neodymium praseodymium, making it one of the top three in the world that's undeveloped. The company has secured financing despite challenging market conditions and aims to create a non-Chinese supply chain by producing a mixed rare earth carbonate that can be further processed outside China.

In Australia, New Frontier Minerals has identified 46 targets at its Harts Range project, focusing on these high-value heavy rare earths that are essential for defense applications and the electric vehicle industry. The Australian government has previously blocked Chinese acquisition of similar assets, highlighting their strategic importance on a national level.

Kevin Das, Senior Technical Consultant for New Frontier Minerals, emphasized:

"At Harts Range, which makes it different to all the other rare earth projects, is we have the high value heavy rare earths, in particular dysprosium and terbium, and the significance of that is these high value heavy rare earths can only be found really in China."

Kevin Das, Senior Technical Consultant for New Frontier Minerals

The Financial Strategy Behind Critical Mineral Development

Financing remains a critical challenge for critical mineral projects, particularly in volatile market conditions:

In Canada, Nano One Materials’ operations is its Candiac, Québec facility— the only full-scale LFP pilot plant outside of Asia — is being ramped up for commercialization with the help of over C$45 million in non-dilutive government support. Nano One’s One-Pot is designed to produce high-performance cathode materials like lithium iron phosphate (LFP), nickel manganese cobalt (NMC), and lithium manganese nickel oxide (LNMO), while also integrating protective coatings at the nano level.

Pensana's success in securing financing during what Atherley describes as the bottom of the rare earth price cycle is noteworthy. The financing package includes equity and debt components from three institutions: Angola's sovereign wealth fund (FSDA), Absa Bank (South Africa), and the African Finance Corporation.

New Frontier Minerals has implemented a strategic approach to funding its exploration activities. Rather than immediately seeking equity funding, the company divested three of its four non-core assets over the past six months, generating cash and shares that provide sufficient working capital for planned activities over the next three to four months.

Mogotes Metals has invested over $10 million in exploration work to date emphasizing the company's efficient use of capital. This focus on maximizing exploration value has helped attract institutional investors despite being a small-cap exploration company.

The Investment Thesis for Critical Minerals

• Supply Chain Diversification: Companies developing resources outside China's control represent strategic investments as Western nations prioritize supply security for defense and technology applications.
• Government Support Premium: Projects receiving strategic government funding may achieve enhanced economics independent of market prices, creating potential value regardless of commodity price fluctuations.
• Strategic Flexibility Advantage: Companies with the ability to sell into multiple markets hold significant advantages in navigating trade disruptions and can potentially benefit from redirected supply chains.
• Technical Barriers to Entry: Demonstrated challenges in developing cost-effective processing facilities create moats for established producers and those with advantageous deposit characteristics.
• Long-Term Demand Growth: The energy transition, defense applications, and emerging technologies (e.g., humanoid robotics) create sustained demand growth trajectories despite near-term volatility.
• Jurisdictional Premium: Assets in politically stable, mining-friendly jurisdictions like Australia may command valuation premiums as supply chain security concerns intensify.
• Strategic M&A Potential: High-quality critical mineral projects located near major deposits may become acquisition targets, as demonstrated by BHP-Lundin's C$4.5 billion acquisition of Filo Mining.
• Vertical Integration Value: Companies moving beyond mine-gate sales to produce midstream or downstream products may capture additional margin and strategic positioning in global supply chains.

The critical minerals sector represents a strategically vital opportunity amid global supply chain realignment. While near-term market volatility stemming from trade tensions may impact valuations, government support, technical barriers to entry, and fundamental supply-demand imbalances create compelling long-term investment cases. Companies that have secured strategic land positions, demonstrated technical feasibility, and positioned themselves within emerging non-Chinese supply chains are particularly well-positioned to benefit from this structural shift.

As governments worldwide accelerate funding for domestic critical mineral projects, investors may find asymmetric opportunities in companies that align with national strategic priorities while maintaining operational flexibility across global markets. The convergence of national security interests, energy transition requirements, and traditional mineral scarcity suggests that despite cyclical price movements, the secular trend for critical minerals remains decidedly positive.