The Long Road to An All-Electric Future

• California plans to spend $10 billion on battery-powered vehicles and ban the sale of new gas-powered vehicles by 2035.
• Shifting to electric vehicles does not eliminate emissions but shifts them from tailpipes to other parts of the infrastructure, such as power plants.
• The production of electric vehicle batteries comes with a significant carbon debt, ranging from 10 to 40 tons of CO2 emissions.
• California's reliance on imported electricity, including coal-fired power, can contribute to emissions associated with charging electric vehicles.
• While electric cars are promising, they are not the sole solution, and a diverse energy mix and careful consideration of supply chains are essential for a sustainable energy future.

Electric vehicles (EVs) are often touted as being zero-emission, but the reality is more complex. As California and other jurisdictions move to phase out gas-powered cars and transition to EVs by 2035 or earlier, many challenges remain.

The Promise of EVs

On the surface, EVs appear to solve the emissions problem from the transportation sector. With no tailpipe, driving an EV produces no local pollutants. Even when taking into account the emissions from electricity generation to charge the EV, studies show EVs generate far fewer lifetime emissions than conventional gas-powered vehicles in most regions. Other pros of EVs include:

• Lower operating costs since electricity is cheaper per mile than gasoline. EV maintenance costs are also lower with fewer mechanical parts.
• Improved performance with near instant torque and smooth acceleration. New EVs can outperform gas-powered cars.
• Potential grid stabilization benefits if EV charging is optimized and smart charging capabilities are utilized.
• Energy security and geopolitical benefits from relying more on domestic electricity versus imported oil.
• Public health benefits in dense urban areas by reducing local air pollution.

With costs falling rapidly and more models available, EV adoption is growing quickly. Further declines in battery prices along with public policy support could accelerate the transition.

The Challenges of Mining and Manufacturing

While there are no tailpipe emissions, producing EVs has a significant carbon footprint. The emissions largely stem from manufacturing the lithium-ion battery pack which weighs over 1,000 pounds versus a typical gas tank that weighs around 100 pounds when full. Building this battery requires mining and processing large quantities of materials like lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, aluminum, and graphite.

Estimates suggest manufacturing a typical EV battery generates between 10 - 40 tons of CO2 emissions. For context, driving a gas-powered car generates around 30 - 40 tons of emissions over its lifetime. So before even accounting for emissions from charging, an EV starts with a substantial carbon debt.

The mining operations required also have major environmental impacts across the supply chain:

• Producing battery materials can generate hundreds of kilograms of CO2 emissions per kilogram of final product. The refining process is also carbon intensive, with much occurring in coal-powered China.
• Extracting these resources requires moving tremendous volumes of earth. Entire ecosystems may be disrupted or destroyed in the process.
• Water pollution is a major concern around lithium mining in particular. The pumping out and evaporation of groundwater depletes local water supplies in arid regions. Chemical leakage is also a risk.
• There are ethical concerns around "conflict minerals" extracted using child labor or in ways that fund armed groups. Congolese cobalt mining has been a focus here.
• Building out mining capacity is extremely slow. It takes an average of 16 years to open a new mine worldwide. Supply shortages and price spikes are likely if EV adoption happens rapidly.

While recycling may help long-term, repurposing EV batteries is an extremely difficult and expensive process today because of their complex chemistry and construction. Overall, the scale of mining required to transition the world's billion plus vehicles to EVs appears unsustainable.

The Challenges of Charging Infrastructure

Recharging EVs also generates indirect emissions since most electricity remains carbon intensive. Charging an EV on coal-heavy grids can produce more emissions than the most efficient gasoline cars. While power generation is gradually decarbonizing, two-thirds of US electricity still comes from fossil fuels.

Building out the charging infrastructure presents additional hurdles:

• Public funding for chargers is expensive, with costs of $6,500 to $50,000 per unit depending on the speed. Charging sites must also be conveniently located.
• Upgrading local distribution grids to handle large spikes in demand as EVs proliferate will require massive utility investments. More robust transmission lines are needed to handle increased power flows.
• Careful coordination is necessary to avoid overloading grids if many EVs in an area start charging simultaneously, such as when people return home from work. Smart charging technology that optimizes timing can help address these peak demand issues.
• Expanding renewable energy sources like solar and wind enough to cover the rising EV electricity demand will also be extremely capital intensive. Intermittent generation from these sources makes grid management more complex as well.
• Storing electricity on a massive scale via batteries will be needed to balance the grid with more renewables. This requires a further leap in battery production and cost reduction.

The scale of upgrades needed for generation, transmission, distribution, and storage to enable a seamless transition to EVs will be unprecedented. The infrastructure spending required likely runs into the trillions of dollars over the next two decades for just the United States, let alone the entire world.

Managing Energy Demand

Another major consideration is the impact EVs will have on overall energy demand. While EVs are 3-4x more efficient than gasoline cars in miles per kilowatt-hour, vehicle electrification opens up automotive transport to billions more people.

Global EV adoption even on the scale of a few hundred million vehicles would likely only reduce oil demand by single digit percentages. Moreover, efficiency gains tend to increase energy demand by lowering costs and enabling more consumption. Rebound effects where energy savings are diminished or even reversed by greater usage are common.

Meanwhile, rising incomes in the developing world and new uses of technology will drive further energy demand growth. For example, video streaming services like Netflix now consume double the electricity of an entire country like Japan. Cryptocurrency mining and blockchain systems are also adding to the surge in electricity demand.

Accommodating these new energy-hungry technologies while expanding EV access worldwide will require a step change improvement in energy productivity. Much greater energy efficiency gains must be coupled with a massive build-out of clean power generation. Absent major advances, adequately satisfying this growth in demand sustainably appears extremely difficult.

Conclusion: The Bumpy Road Ahead

Transitioning the global vehicle fleet to EVs while decarbonizing power generation is a monumental undertaking. Supporters often overlook the substantial mining, manufacturing, infrastructure, and demand challenges involved. Progress will likely continue, but getting to an all-electric, near zero-emission transportation future will realistically take decades, not years.

Key takeaways:

• EVs have clear environmental benefits locally but large upstream emissions from production. Breaking even on lifetime carbon can take years.
• EV battery production requires mining projects on an unparalleled scale with major impacts. The supply chain cannot scale sustainably given current technology.
• Charging systems must be built out at massive expense to handle added stress on grids from EVs while improving renewable generation capacity.
• Global energy demand could surge with increasing consumption from EVs, economic growth in the developing world, and new uses of technology. Far greater efficiency gains are essential.
• An overly rushed transition risks supply shortages, much higher costs, and grid instability which leads to blackouts. A more gradual approach is advisable.
• Major technology advances and infrastructure investment are still needed for EVs to reach their pollution and climate change mitigation potential affordably and reliably.