i-80 Gold: Nevada's Next Mid-Tier Producer Emerges Amid Sustained Central Bank Buying

• i-80 Gold Corp operates five Nevada-based development projects targeting approximately 600,000 ounces of annual gold production by the early 2030s, controlling 6.5 million ounces of measured and indicated resources plus 7.5 million ounces inferred across its asset base, making it Nevada's fourth-largest resource holder with all deposits open for expansion.
• Recent preliminary economic assessments for all projects define $1.6 billion after-tax NPV at $2,175/oz gold and $4.9 billion at $3,000/oz, demonstrating substantial operating leverage to current gold prices and providing a clear value proposition as development milestones are achieved.
• The company raised over $200 million through 2025 equity financings to fund near-term development, with proceeds allocated to settle $42 million in prepayment obligations and provide $92 million for construction activities, drilling programs, permitting work, and technical studies across all five projects including the critical Lone Tree autoclave refurbishment.
• The development plan sequences three underground refractory projects (Granite Creek currently ramping up, Archimedes construction started Q3 2025) followed by two large-scale open-pit oxide operations, with the Lone Tree autoclave refurbishment expected to unlock significantly higher recoveries (92% versus 55-60% toll-milling payability) starting in 2028.
• Leadership comprises veterans from successful development and operating companies, led by former Teranga Gold CEO Richard Young, combining corporate development expertise with Nevada-specific technical knowledge and a demonstrated track record of value creation through project development and strategic transactions in tier-one mining jurisdictions.

Introduction: Gold's Institutional Momentum Creates Mining Sector Opportunity

Recent analysis indicates that central banks are expected to continue purchasing gold through the remainder of 2025, reflecting ongoing momentum in official-sector demand during a period of global uncertainty. This trend is strategically important for investors focused on the mining and precious-metals sector, as sustained institutional buying provides a supportive price environment that enhances project economics and financing conditions for development-stage producers.

i-80 Gold Corp emerges within this favorable macro backdrop as a Nevada-focused developer with a clear pathway from current production of 20,000-30,000 ounces annually to a targeted 600,000+ ounces by the early 2030s. The company's November 2025 corporate presentation outlines a three-phase development plan advancing five core assets, each benefiting from Nevada's tier-one mining jurisdiction, existing infrastructure, and well-understood geology.

The convergence of sustained gold demand, proven management execution, and a disciplined development timeline positions i-80 as a compelling investment thesis for those seeking leveraged exposure to precious metals through a North American developer with near-term production catalysts and longer-term expansion optionality. With gold prices maintaining strength above $3,000 per ounce and institutional demand showing no signs of slowing, i-80's portfolio demonstrates substantial operating leverage to the current price environment.

Company Overview: Consolidating Nevada's Golden Triangle

i-80 Gold Corp has assembled what management describes as an "industry-leading pipeline" concentrated entirely within Nevada's prolific mining districts. The Toronto and NYSE American-listed company (TSX: IAU, NYSE: IAUX) controls properties spanning the Battle Mountain-Eureka and Getchell gold trends, positioning its assets within 10-250 kilometers of existing major operations including Nevada Gold Mines' prolific Turquoise Ridge Complex, which currently hosts approximately 20 million ounces of gold resources.

The company's November 2025 corporate presentation outlines total consolidated resources of 6.5 million ounces measured and indicated at 0.73 g/t gold plus 7.5 million ounces inferred at 0.9 g/t. These figures establish i-80 as Nevada's fourth-largest resource holder, with the strategic advantage that "all deposits open for expansion" through ongoing drill programs. The resource base divides into high-grade underground mineralization (1.0 million oz M&I at 8.4 g/t plus 2.5 million oz inferred at 8.5 g/t) and bulk-tonnage open-pit material (5.5 million oz M&I at 0.64 g/t plus 5.0 million oz inferred at 0.64 g/t).

Significantly, the Mineral Point deposit also hosts 104.3 million ounces measured and indicated silver at 15.0 g/t, plus 91.5 million ounces inferred at 14.6 g/t, providing substantial byproduct credits that enhance project economics. This diversified resource profile across multiple deposits and mineralization styles reduces geological risk while supporting a scalable production pathway that can capitalize on both gold and silver price strength.

Why Central Banks Are Increasing Gold Holdings: Context for Mining Investment

Central banks are diversifying away from traditional reserve assets to reduce exposure to currency and geopolitical risks, with gold serving as a stabilizing element within national reserve portfolios. Heightened global tension and financial-system fragility are reinforcing this trend, creating a sustained demand profile that differs meaningfully from cyclical investment flows.

For mining companies like i-80 Gold, this structural shift in official-sector behavior provides several strategic advantages. First, sustained institutional buying establishes a price floor that supports project financing and development decisions, reducing the risk that near-term price volatility will derail construction timelines. Second, the diversification of reserve portfolios signals long-term confidence in gold's role within the global monetary system, validating investment in production capacity expansion.

Central bank buying patterns tend to be counter-cyclical to private investment flows, providing price support during periods when speculative positioning might otherwise create downward pressure. This demand stability enhances the risk-adjusted returns for shareholders in development-stage producers, as projects can be advanced with greater confidence in the price environment that will prevail at the time of production commencement.

Strategic Development Plan: Three-Phase Pathway to 600koz Production

Management has structured asset advancement through a sequenced approach that balances near-term cash flow generation with capital-efficient expansion. The plan anticipates 150,000-200,000 ounces annually during Phase 1 (2028-2029), growing to 300,000-400,000 ounces in Phase 2 (2030-2031), and exceeding 600,000 ounces from 2032 onward as both underground and open-pit operations reach steady-state.

Phase 1 prioritizes three underground refractory projects: Granite Creek Underground (currently in ramp-up), Archimedes Underground (construction commenced Q3 2025), and the planned refurbishment of the company-owned Lone Tree autoclave facility targeted for commissioning in 2028. According to the presentation, "dewatering infrastructure upgrades completed early-2025 with further upgrades underway" have stabilized Granite Creek operations, with the operation guiding toward 20,000-30,000 ounces for 2025 and ramp-up to steady-state anticipated by H1 2026. The Lone Tree autoclave serves as the linchpin of the strategy, as current toll-milling arrangements deliver only 55-60% payability on refractory concentrate, whereas autoclave processing achieves approximately 92% gold recovery.

Phase 2 introduces oxide heap-leach projects requiring longer permitting timelines but offering low-cost production from bulk-tonnage deposits, with Granite Creek Open Pit and Cove Underground targeted for construction starts in 2029-2030. Phase 3 adds Mineral Point Open Pit, described in the presentation as a potential "company-maker asset" with preliminary economic assessment economics of $614 million after-tax NPV at base-case metal prices and 282,000 ounces average annual gold-equivalent production over 16.5 years, expanding to $2.3 billion NPV at spot prices near $3,000/oz gold and $35/oz silver.

Private-Sector Investment Behavior: Reinforcing Gold's Defensive Appeal

Investor appetite for gold remains resilient, driven by safe-haven positioning as geopolitical uncertainties persist and monetary policy remains in transition. Long-term diversification strategies are pushing more portfolios toward precious-metal allocations, with broad commodity-investment flows continuing to favor assets with defensible macro narratives.

For i-80 Gold, this investment behavior translates into tangible benefits. The company's May 2025 equity financing, which raised approximately $200 million through bought-deal and concurrent private placements, was significantly oversubscribed and attracted new long-term institutional investors. According to the presentation, the financing was "underpinned by new long-term investors," demonstrating market confidence in the development thesis despite the company's pre-production status.

Approximately $92 million from the equity raise "is expected to be allocated to fund construction activities, drilling, permitting and technical studies across five gold projects, including the Lone Tree autoclave," with the remaining proceeds settling $42 million in prepayment obligations. Sustained private-sector interest also improves the company's access to capital for the planned second phase of recapitalization, which targets $350-400 million in additional financing to repay convertible debt and provide long-term growth capital.

Implications for Mining Companies: Operating Leverage in a Rising-Demand Environment

A supportive gold environment enhances operating margins for producers, while developers benefit from stronger sentiment around project economics and financing potential. Companies with disciplined cost structures, quality resources, or near-term production catalysts are best positioned in a rising-demand environment to capture investor attention and access capital on favorable terms.

i-80 Gold exemplifies these characteristics through its portfolio of preliminary economic assessments filed in Q1 2025. At a conservative $2,175/oz gold price assumption, the combined portfolio delivers $1.6 billion in after-tax NPV (discounted at 5%). However, at current spot prices near $3,000/oz gold, the portfolio's combined after-tax NPV increases to $4.9 billion, a threefold improvement driven by operating leverage from relatively fixed cost structures.

This price sensitivity is particularly pronounced in the underground projects, where all-in sustaining costs ranging from $1,303/oz to $1,893/oz provide substantial margins at current prices. The Granite Creek Underground project contributes $155 million after-tax NPV at base-case pricing but increases to $373 million at $3,000/oz gold, while Archimedes Underground expands from $127 million to $644 million NPV with an 81% IRR at higher prices. These economics underscore why sustained institutional gold demand matters for development-stage producers commissioning projects into what appears to be a structurally strong gold market.

Financial Strengthening: $300M+ Recapitalization Program

i-80 Gold has executed a comprehensive balance sheet restructuring during 2025 to fund its aggressive development timeline while positioning for the anticipated strong gold market. The company raised approximately $200 million through bought-deal and concurrent private placements in May 2025, with proceeds allocated to settle $42 million in gold and silver prepayment obligations and provide working capital for construction activities, drilling programs, permitting work, and technical studies.

As of September 30, 2025, i-80 Gold reported cash of approximately $103 million against total debt of $176 million, comprising $60 million and $65 million convertible loans from 2021 and 2023 respectively, plus remaining prepay obligations to Orion Mine Finance. Third quarter 2025 financial results demonstrated operational progress with 9,368 ounces sold (nearly double the prior year period) at an average realized price of $3,412 per ounce, generating approximately $32 million in revenue.

The market capitalization stood at approximately $840 million USD (based on November 13, 2025 share price of $1.02 USD and 826.3 million shares outstanding), with an additional 221.5 million warrants issued through the May 2025 financings. This valuation implies the market is pricing in only a fraction of the $1.6-4.9 billion after-tax NPV outlined in the company's preliminary economic assessments, suggesting significant upside if development milestones are achieved and the gold price environment remains supportive.

Project Economics: $4.9B NPV Portfolio Leverages Gold Strength

The comprehensive preliminary economic assessments filed in Q1 2025 provide detailed engineering and financial analysis for each of the five core projects, with sensitivity analyses demonstrating how sustained gold strength translates into shareholder value. The presentation emphasizes that "PEA economics expected to improve with drilling ahead of feasibility studies," indicating that current assessments may understate ultimate project value.

Underground projects contribute $553M combined NPV at base case, expanding to $1.6B at spot prices. Granite Creek Underground targets 59,600 ounces average annual production at $1,597/oz AISC following autoclave commissioning, with the presentation noting "production and cash flow expected to rise after autoclave restart" as recovery rates improve from current 55-60% toll-milling payability to 92% autoclave recovery. Archimedes Underground adds $127 million after-tax NPV at 23% IRR under base-case assumptions, expanding to $644 million NPV at 81% IRR at spot gold prices, while Cove Underground contributes $271 million after-tax NPV at 30% IRR, improving to $626 million NPV at 54% IRR at higher prices.

Open pit projects deliver $1.0B combined NPV at base case, expanding to $3.3B at spot prices. Granite Creek Open Pit contributes $421 million after-tax NPV at 30% IRR with 128,600 ounces annual production, described as "significantly larger than previous 2021 study." Mineral Point represents the portfolio's largest value component, delivering $614 million after-tax NPV at base-case metal prices but expanding to $2.3 billion with IRR improving to 29% at spot prices of $3,000/oz gold and $35/oz silver, characterized as "potential to become i-80's largest producing asset."

Operational Progress: Granite Creek Stabilization & Archimedes Launch

The Granite Creek Underground operation has achieved notable improvements following infrastructure upgrades to address water management challenges that constrained development during 2024. Enhanced dewatering systems completed in early 2025, combined with a second expanded water treatment plant targeted for completion by end-Q1 2026, have stabilized mining rates and main decline advancement according to the presentation materials.

An ongoing infill drill program at the South Pacific Zone, located approximately one kilometer north of current mining areas, has completed 35 of 40 planned holes totaling approximately 10,000 meters, with seven additional holes added to the program. According to the presentation, "initial results continue to show robust high-grade mineralization across the South Pacific Zone" and "potential for continued expansion to the north and at depth," with the most northerly and deepest hole successfully intersecting the primary fault structures as expected.

Archimedes Underground development commenced in Q3 2025 following completion of surface infrastructure and portal construction in Q2 2025. The presentation reports that "underground development advancing above expectations" under a sequential permitting approach that expedites mining of the upper Archimedes zone while finalizing approvals for the lower Ruby Deeps zone. An extensive infill drill program totaling more than 175 holes and 55,000 meters is underway, with upper-zone drilling commenced in Q4 2025 and lower-zone drilling planned for Q2 2026, supporting the feasibility study targeted for Q1 2027.

Autoclave Advantage: Unlocking 92% Recoveries in Strong Gold Market

The strategic decision to refurbish and recommission the Lone Tree autoclave processing facility represents perhaps i-80's most significant value driver, particularly in the context of sustained gold demand and pricing strength. Nevada hosts only two autoclave facilities, with the other operated by Nevada Gold Mines at their Turquoise Ridge/Twin Creeks complex, creating strategic value for i-80 as regional refractory projects have limited processing options.

Current toll-milling arrangements route Granite Creek concentrate to third-party roasting facilities, where payability factors of only 55-60% mean the company receives payment for approximately half the contained gold in shipped concentrate. The presentation indicates that autoclave processing at Lone Tree would achieve approximately 92% average recovery, essentially doubling realized gold per ton of mineralized material processed and resulting in "increased production, lower costs, and improved cash flow."

In the current gold price environment above $3,000 per ounce, this recovery improvement has dramatic value implications. Each percentage point of recovery improvement translates to approximately $30 per ounce of additional realized value at current prices, meaning the 32-37 percentage point improvement from autoclave processing represents approximately $960-1,110 per ounce of incremental value. A limited notice to proceed was approved by the board in Q3 2025, with the refurbishment Class 3 engineering study expected in Q4 2025 to define final capital requirements, construction timeline, and optimal processing configuration.

Resource Expansion Potential: All Deposits Open for Growth

A distinguishing characteristic of i-80's asset base is that all five deposits remain open for expansion through step-out drilling, creating exploration upside that could extend mine lives and improve project economics beyond current preliminary assessments. The company has invested significantly in exploration during 2024-2025, with multiple drill programs underway simultaneously across the portfolio.

At Granite Creek, the South Pacific Zone infill program aims to extend high-grade underground resources more than one kilometer north of current mining areas, while at Mineral Point, a 50,000-meter core drilling campaign commenced in June 2025 to support an updated resource estimate and feasibility study. The Cove project completed approximately 41,000 meters of infill drilling in Q1 2025 on 30-meter spacing across the Gap and Helen zones, with the presentation noting results are "encouraging and consistent with Carlin-style deposits meaning generally high conversion resources to reserves."

Exploration success has meaningful implications for project economics in a strong gold market, as converting inferred resources to higher-confidence categories enables their inclusion in reserve calculations and detailed mine planning. Additionally, resource expansion extends mine life, improving project IRRs by spreading fixed capital costs across larger production profiles while capturing more ounces at favorable prices.

Strategic Considerations for Investors: Reading Central Bank Signals

Official gold-buying patterns can serve as early indicators of long-term cycle shifts, providing investors with insights into structural demand changes that may not yet be reflected in equity valuations. For i-80 Gold specifically, the three to seven-year pathway from current status to full production means that projects will be commissioned into what appears to be a structurally supportive market, improving the probability of achieving projected economics and reducing financing risk.

The company's Nevada focus positions it within a jurisdiction that benefits from both domestic and international gold demand. While central bank buying is dominated by emerging-market institutions seeking to diversify reserves, North American production remains strategically important for Western institutional investors seeking domestic exposure to gold price appreciation without geopolitical risk.

Gold-equity valuations may adjust as demand signals strengthen and investors recognize the duration of the current cycle. i-80's current market capitalization of approximately $840 million USD implies limited value attribution to resources beyond Granite Creek, suggesting potential for significant rerating as later-stage projects advance through permitting and feasibility. The autoclave refurbishment decision scheduled for Q2 2026 takes on added strategic importance in a high-price environment, as the incremental value from achieving 92% recoveries versus 55-60% toll-milling payability scales directly with gold prices.

Risks & Counterpoints: Execution Dependencies in Development Stage

The positive trajectory depends on the continuation of current buying trends and successful execution across multiple development fronts. Changes in global interest-rate expectations or macroeconomic stability could influence sentiment toward gold, potentially pressuring prices and impacting project economics. The company's presentation acknowledges these dependencies, noting that timelines are "subject to the completion of the autoclave refurbishment Class 3 engineering study" and "Board approval, and the successful funding, development, and commissioning of the Company's Lone Tree processing facility."

Key risks include execution on the aggressive development timeline, which requires successful navigation of permitting processes, construction delivery on budget and schedule, and achievement of nameplate operating parameters. Resource risk centers on conversion of the 7.5 million ounces of inferred resources to higher-confidence categories and achievement of projected metallurgical recoveries in production. The presentation notes that "inferred mineral resources are considered too speculative geologically to have economic considerations applied to them, and there is no certainty that the forecasts set out in the PEAs will be realized."

Financing risk persists given the capital-intensive nature of the development plan. The planned second phase of recapitalization targeting $350-400 million must be completed successfully to repay convertible debt and provide growth capital. Permitting timeline uncertainty, particularly for the large open-pit projects requiring Environmental Impact Statements, could delay Phase 2 and Phase 3 developments beyond current schedules, with Granite Creek Open Pit requiring approximately three years for federal permitting approvals.

Near-Term Catalysts: 12-18 Month Value Inflection Points

i-80 has outlined specific deliverables across technical studies, construction activities, and financing initiatives that provide measurable progress indicators for 2025-2026. The Lone Tree refurbishment feasibility-level engineering study represents perhaps the most significant near-term catalyst given its impact on portfolio-wide economics, with expected completion in Q4 2025 defining capital requirements, construction timeline, and processing configuration, enabling a construction decision anticipated in Q2 2026.

Feasibility studies for Granite Creek Underground and Cove Underground are both targeted for Q1 2026, converting preliminary assessments into bankable documents that support project financing, with the Archimedes feasibility study following in Q1 2027. On the construction front, Archimedes Underground development continues through 2025 and into 2026, with the presentation highlighting that "Commence construction Q3 2025" was completed and "Initiate infill drilling of upper zone Q4 2025" is underway.

The recapitalization plan's second phase, targeting $350-400 million in financing, represents a critical catalyst that will improve balance sheet flexibility and reduce dilution risk. The presentation lists "Advance debt financing options" and "Potential sale of non-core asset (FAD property) and royalty sale" as ongoing initiatives, with successful completion of this phase essential for repaying convertible debt and providing growth capital for the full development program.

The Investment Thesis for i-80 Gold

• Central bank buying patterns and private-sector safe-haven positioning create a supportive gold price environment that enhances margins, improves project financing conditions, and validates long-term production capacity expansion in tier-one jurisdictions.
• The company controls the fourth-largest resource base in North America's premier gold jurisdiction, with proximity to major infrastructure reducing development capital and operating costs relative to greenfield projects while eliminating geopolitical risk.
• The phased approach sequences near-term underground cash flow (2026-2028) to fund later-stage open-pit development (2029-2032), enabling projects to be commissioned into what appears to be a structurally strong gold market.
• Owning one of Nevada's two autoclave facilities enables 92% recoveries versus 55-60% toll-milling payability, with value scaling directly with gold prices and potential for third-party processing revenue from regional producers.
• Ongoing 100,000+ meter drill programs targeting conversion of 7.5 million inferred ounces to higher-confidence categories could materially expand reserve life and improve project economics ahead of production decisions.
• Current market capitalization of approximately $840 million USD implies minimal value attribution to $1.6-4.9 billion after-tax NPV outlined in preliminary economic assessments, suggesting significant upside as development milestones de-risk the portfolio.

i-80 Gold has assembled a compelling portfolio of Nevada gold assets positioned for transformation from developer to mid-tier producer over the next five to seven years, with the development timeline coinciding with what appears to be a sustained period of institutional gold demand. The combination of high-grade underground deposits providing near-term cash flow with large-scale open-pit projects offering longer-term production growth creates a balanced risk-reward profile that captures both immediate and deferred value from gold price strength.

The autoclave strategy represents a differentiating factor that meaningfully improves economics while creating potential competitive moats through superior processing capabilities. In the current environment of gold prices above $3,000 per ounce, the recovery improvement from 55-60% toll-milling to 92% autoclave processing represents approximately $960-1,110 per ounce of incremental value, a margin enhancement that directly flows to operating cash flow and shareholder returns.

For investors seeking leveraged exposure to gold prices within a tier-one jurisdiction, i-80 offers substantial operating leverage through its cost structures and development optionality. The preliminary economic assessments demonstrate the portfolio's NPV increases threefold (from $1.6B to $4.9B) as gold rises from $2,175/oz to $3,000/oz, providing meaningful torque in continued strong gold markets. The strategic decision points over the next 12-18 months will significantly impact the investment case and provide measurable catalysts for share price revaluation, potentially positioning i-80 as an attractive consolidation candidate for larger producers or as a standalone mid-tier producer serving institutional investors seeking North American gold exposure with production growth visibility into the 2030s.

TL;DR

‍i-80 Gold is advancing five Nevada gold projects toward 600,000 oz/year production by early 2030s, backed by 14 million oz resources, recent $200M+ financing, and a strategic plan to refurbish its Lone Tree autoclave, positioning the company as a consolidation play in North America's premier mining jurisdiction during a period of sustained institutional gold demand.

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