Premium Floor Pricing Established for Strategic Critical Minerals as Import Tariffs Drive Domestic Production

• Governments worldwide have fundamentally shifted their approach to critical minerals, implementing policies such as 50% import tariffs and critical raw materials acts that create urgency around securing domestic supply chains and reducing dependence on geopolitically sensitive regions.
• The global critical minerals sector has emerged as one of the most compelling investment themes of the current decade, driven by unprecedented demand for strategic materials essential to defense, renewable energy, and advanced technology applications amid structural supply deficits across multiple commodities.
• Strategic government partnerships are providing unprecedented backing to the sector, with agencies operating multi-billion dollar budgets to secure natural resource supply chains, offering funding structures that include full project financing options and carried working interests.
• Companies across the sector are reaching advanced development stages with proven technical merit, executing major capital programs, completing feasibility studies, and approaching regulatory milestones that serve as near-term catalysts for value creation.
• The sector benefits from jurisdictional advantages in established mining regions that offer political stability, streamlined permitting processes, and infrastructure advantages, while companies leverage technological innovations including artificial intelligence and vertical integration strategies to enhance project economics.

The global critical minerals sector represents one of the most compelling investment themes of the current decade, driven by unprecedented demand for strategic materials essential to defense, renewable energy, and advanced technology applications. A comprehensive analysis of leading companies in this space reveals a convergence of favorable market conditions, advanced project development, and strategic government support that positions the sector for significant growth.

The critical minerals landscape has fundamentally shifted as governments recognize the strategic importance of domestic supply chains. Recent policy developments, including President Trump's announced 50% tariffs on imports and the European Union's Critical Raw Materials Act, have created urgency around securing alternative sources for materials previously dominated by geopolitically sensitive regions.

Different Critical Minerals' Current Market Dynamics

The critical minerals market faces structural supply deficits across multiple commodities. This scarcity extends beyond geological abundance to operational capacity. Current supply disruptions have created acute constraints, with Chinese tin smelters operating at 50% capacity utilization compared to typical 70-80% levels.

"The tin market is only 2% [of the size] of the copper market. We're tiny in that instance. Tin is 35x less abundant in the earth's crust than copper. If you included every single tin development project that sits within listed companies on any of the exchanges worldwide, you can count them on two hands." - Elementos' Managing Director Joe David

Interview with Elementos Managing Director, Joe David

According to the International Tin Association estimates, tin demand is projected to increase by 50% by 2030, driven by solar power, electric vehicles, and advanced telecommunications.

In a company report, Rome Resources Chairman Klaus Eckhof highlighted tin's strategic importance:

"[Tin] It has a crucial role to play in the development of advanced computing power for artificial intelligence, components for electric vehicles and renewable energy systems, as well as continued base demand for other industrial applications."

Current tin pricing stands at approximately $31,000 per tonne, reflecting strong market fundamentals. Similar dynamics affect other critical minerals, with Myanmar disruptions impacting global tin supply chains and China controlling approximately 70% of global rare earth production.

The heavy rare earth sector also presents compelling supply-demand dynamics. The pricing differential reflects this criticality, with light rare earths trading around $65 per kilogram while dysprosium commands approximately $250 per kilogram and terbium exceeds $1,000 per kilogram. Namibia Critical Metals CEO Darrin Campbell emphasizes the value proposition:

"When most people are hearing about rare earths, it's primarily light rare - it's the NdPr neodymium-praseodymium, which are used in permanent magnets for EV motors, wind turbines, robotics. But what you also need in those permanent magnets is dysprosium and terbium to be able to let those magnets operate at high temperature."

Meanwhile, the lithium market's challenges became apparent through declining commodity prices and slowing EV demand over the past 18 months. However, mining executives maintain confidence in the underlying energy transition narrative.

"The belief is still over time that we are in an energy transition that lithium continues to be a commodity that is going to be needed for the technology community, for the automotive industry and for grid storage." - Surface Metals' CEO Stephen Hanson

Government Support & Strategic Partnerships

The sector benefits from unprecedented government backing as nations prioritize supply chain security. The most notable example is Namibia Critical Metals' partnership with JOGMEC, Japan's Organization for Metals and Energy Security, which operates with an annual budget exceeding $10 billion. Campbell describes the partnership structure:

"They are earning up to a 50% interest in the project. They've currently earned 40% right now. We are probably another year away from reaching that 50% earning by spending a total of C$20 million."

Interview with Namibia Critical Metals President & CEO, Darrin Campbell

This partnership provides exceptional optionality, as upon JOGMEC reaching 50% project ownership, Namibia Critical Metals can either maintain 49% participation or accept dilution to a carried working interest of no less than 26% while having the project fully funded by Japan. Such structures demonstrate the strategic value governments place on securing critical mineral supplies.

The recent US Department of Defense intervention in rare earth markets has fundamentally altered the investment landscape. Campbell highlighted the significance:

"One of the most important pieces of that news release that came out for me was the floor price that they established for NdPr. Essentially establishing a 70% premium to current spot prices on NdPr that has the potential to be rocket fuel for other projects including ours."

Advanced Project Development & Technical Merit

Several companies have reached advanced development stages with proven technical merit:

Kenmare Resources, with nearly 40 years of presence in Mozambique, is executing a $340 million capital program to relocate primary mining operations to the Nataka orebody, which contains 70% of the company's reserves. Despite current market oversupply conditions, Kenmare maintains strong operational performance at the Moma titanium dioxide mineral sands mine in Mozambique for 20 years in production, and reserves extending 80-90 years. Managing Director Tom Hickey explains the strategic importance:

"Our biggest mining plant, Wet Concentrator Plant (WCP) A, which is about 50% of our production, needed some upgrade to enable us to deal with a slightly more resilient or trickier ore to mine at Nataka."

Kenmare's relationship with the Mozambican government provided reassurance about the government's approach:

"We think that the president is a good listener. He is quite commercial, quite pragmatic and he understands that foreign direct investment will be vital to Mozambique's expansion and extension over the next number of years."

Interview with Kenmare Resources MD, Tom Hickey

Elementos' Oropesa tin project demonstrates robust economics with a published Definitive Feasibility Study showing A$270 million NPV using conservative $30,000 tin price assumptions. Elementos submitted its primary permits in April 2025 following an 11-month consultation period. The most compelling opportunity lies in a 16-24 million tonne tungsten exploration target at the Cleveland tin mine in northwest Tasmania, Australia where David describes the geological potential:

"We got a 600-meter intercept of tungsten. It's a porphyry tungsten system. Within that system, we've got tungsten, rubidium, molybdenum, bismuth and fluorite. We've got five or six of the US, Japan's, China's, South Korea's critical minerals list in one ore body."

Companies are also leveraging technological innovations to enhance project economics and operational efficiency. Go Metals has embraced artificial intelligence through its partnership with MineCompare AI. CEO Scott Sheldon explains the value:

"We found that using the AI, as you look at AI more as a team member, so something that you can ask questions to and even debate, it becomes pretty valuable."

This integration transforms the company's commercial position, enabling direct engagement with large manufacturers rather than dealing with traders who typically purchase tin concentrate. Go Metals' flagship Monster IOCG (Iron Oxide Copper Gold) project, located in the Yukon's Dawson mining district, presented massive gravity anomalies with visible cobalt mineralization presenting as "nice pink erythrite blooms", suggests substantial mineralization systems comparable to Olympic Dam and other major deposits.

Interview with Go Metals, CEO Scott Sheldon

Jurisdictional Advantages and Political Support

Companies operating in established mining jurisdictions benefit from political stability and infrastructure advantages. Surface Metals CEO Stephen Hanson highlights Nevada's reputation:

"It's been ranked by independent bodies as the number one mining jurisdiction in the world. Australia and Nevada seem to change over in that estimate."

The current political environment further enhances attractiveness, as Hanson observed. Government incentives supporting domestic mineral production and practical benefits extend to operational efficiency, with Hanson noting:

"Once I submit a notice of intent and ultimately a bond, I can probably turn that around in about 90 to 120 days [...] The new government really wants to create a domestic supply of many minerals"

Interview with Steve Hanson, CEO of Surface Metals

GreenLight Metals President and CEO Matt Filgate emphasizes the changing sentiment:

"We're seeing a real shift in the mentality of people in the United States right now. When you talk about mining back in the 70s and 80s, there was environmental concern. It was a dirty business. With everybody transitioning to the green side now, we're talking about infrastructural build, national security, electrification."

Wisconsin's emergence from a 20-year mining moratorium provides unique opportunities. Filgate notes:

"With Trump announcing new 50% tariffs on imports, they got to backfill that with domestic supply."

Greenlight has secured the flagship Bend Project, which contains a 4.5 million ton historic resource grading 2% copper and 2.3 grams per ton gold. Beyond Bend, the company's portfolio includes the high-grade Lobo project, featuring historic intersections of 9 meters at 23% zinc, and several untested electromagnetic anomalies across the belt with institutional backing from Vestcor and Delbrook, making Greenlight well-positioned to execute its discovery-focused strategy in this underexplored jurisdiction.

Interview with Matt Filgate, CEO of GreenLight Metals

Similarly, Go Metals operates within the favorable Canadian mining jurisdiction, providing political stability and established mining infrastructure. The company's location near Dawson City, a historic mining center, provides access to experienced contractors and established supply chains, helping to manage the challenges of remote exploration.

"We're a Canadian company and we work in Canada because there's so much potential in Canada." - Go Metals CEO Scott Sheldon

This jurisdictional advantage becomes increasingly important as global supply chain security concerns drive investment toward politically stable mining regions.

Near-Term Catalysts & Development Timelines

Multiple companies approach significant milestones that could catalyze value creation:

• Namibia Critical Metals targets Pre-Feasibility Study completion by year-end 2025, with Campbell expressing confidence as all of the PFS is still fully funded with the JOGMEC earning.

• GreenLight Metals has initiated a 3,000-meter Phase 1 drilling program with approximately 700 meters completed and first assay results expected within a month, and will be followed by a larger 6,000-meter Phase 2 program beginning in October 2025.

• Elementos approaches regulatory milestones in Spain's mining-friendly Andalucia region, expecting for the company to go into a public exhibition phase.

• Rome Resources has completed 5,841 meters of core drilling across the Kalayi and Mont Agoma prospects, with results feeding into a maiden mineral resource estimate expected in September 2025.

The Investment Thesis for Critical Minerals

• Supply Security Premium: Invest in companies with projects located in politically stable jurisdictions including Canada, Nevada, Spain, and Australia, as Western governments prioritize domestic supply chains over geopolitically sensitive regions.
• Government Partnership Leverage: Target companies with strategic government backing, particularly those with partnerships like JOGMEC's investment model, which provides both funding and validation while reducing development risk.
• High-Value Commodity Focus: Prioritize exposure to premium critical minerals including dysprosium ($250/kg), terbium ($1,000+/kg), and tin ($33,000/tonne) rather than traditional base metals, given their strategic importance and pricing power.
• Advanced Development Stage: Focus on companies approaching key milestones including feasibility studies, drilling programs, and regulatory approvals, as these provide near-term catalysts for value creation and de-risking.
• Vertical Integration Opportunities: Consider companies with unique value-add strategies such as Elementos' smelter integration, which captures processing margins and European premiums unavailable to traditional concentrate producers.
• Technology-Enhanced Operations: Invest in companies leveraging modern technologies including AI for geological interpretation, XRT/XRF sorting for grade enhancement, and innovative processing techniques that improve project economics.
• Market Leadership Positions: Target established producers like Kenmare Resources with proven operational track records, customer relationships, and market positions that benefit from industry consolidation trends.
• Portfolio Diversification Strategy: Consider companies with multiple project exposure across different commodities and geological settings, providing various pathways to value creation and reducing single-project risk.
• Capital Efficiency Models: Focus on companies with lean operational structures and proven capital allocation strategies that maximize exploration and development spending relative to administrative overhead.
• Policy Alignment Benefits: Invest in companies positioned to benefit from favorable policy developments including import tariffs, domestic mineral incentives, and supply chain security initiatives across Western governments.

The critical minerals sector represents a convergence of strategic necessity, supply constraints, and government support that creates compelling investment opportunities. Companies with advanced projects in established jurisdictions, strategic partnerships, and exposure to high-value commodities are positioned to benefit from the fundamental shift toward supply chain security and domestic mineral production. The combination of proven technical merit, government backing, and favorable policy environments provides a foundation for sustained value creation in this strategically important sector.