Resource Updates & Consolidation Targets Shape Mining Fall Outlook

• Multiple portfolio companies including Bravo Mining, Sterling Metals, and First Nordic are expected to release drilling results after Labor Day, with Bravo Mining targeting potential IOCG discovery following exceptional 11m at 14% copper intercept
• OmaiI's resource update represents the most significant near-term catalyst by portfolio weighting, expected to demonstrate increased tonnage and potentially graduate the company to top-tier gold development status
• The preliminary feasibility study will validate previous preliminary assessment assumptions and could establish a clear path to construction for a tier-one copper project
• Several portfolio positions including Troilus Gold, Aurion/Rupert consolidation, and Sailfish (via Spring Valley mine transaction) present takeover or corporate action opportunities ahead of conference season

As summer trading volumes diminish and news flow dries up across junior mining markets, investment managers traditionally use this period to conduct comprehensive portfolio reviews and prepare for the busy conference season that begins after Labor Day.

The discussion, led by Derek Mcpherson (Executive Chair) and Sam Pelaez (President, CEO, and CIO) of Olive Resource Capital, focused on what they termed "playing defense" - evaluating existing portfolio positions and their upcoming catalysts - while reserving offensive strategy and new investment opportunities for a subsequent episode. This approach reflects the systematic methodology institutional investors employ during quiet summer periods to position portfolios for the traditionally more active fall trading season.

Expected Drilling Results & Exploration Catalysts

The most immediate category of expected catalysts involves drill results from companies that have been conducting summer exploration programs. As Pelaez noted, seasonal explorers typically begin drilling programs in April through June, meaning first results should emerge in early September, though he advised companies against releasing results on the Tuesday after Labor Day due to back-to-school distractions among institutional investors.

Bravo Mining represents the most compelling drill result opportunity within their portfolio. The company, which controls a PGM/nickel resource exceeding 50 million ounces in Brazil, has been targeting potential IOCG (iron oxide copper gold) mineralization following an exceptional intercept of 11 meters at 14% copper discovered a year ago. The duo noted that Bravo has been drilling six or seven targets from approximately 15 identified conductors, though with limited aggressiveness using a single rig. Results from several months of drilling are expected in early September.

"Obviously the valuation is underpinned by the PGM resource, but the addition of this potential IOCG tonnage or resource, especially after that 11-12 meters at 14% copper - if they can build tonnage around something like that, that'd be quite spectacular and certainly would add to the value of the story."

The potential addition of copper mineralization could provide important commodity diversification as PGM markets show renewed investor interest.

Sterling Metals has generated positive momentum following encouraging drill results earlier in 2025 that, while not spectacular individually, suggest potential for a significant porphyry discovery adjacent to the Trans-Canada Highway in northwestern Ontario. This location advantage in a historically productive base metals region, combined with reasonable access infrastructure, positions any potential discovery favorably for future development. The company's recent strong share price performance reflects growing market recognition of this potential.

First Nordic presents a recovery opportunity following financing-related pressure during the summer months. The company completed necessary funding and is now positioned to resume aggressive drilling on targets that the duo compared to early-stage Rupert Resources. With extensive land control and significant strike length in Sweden's prospective geology, First Nordic's systematic exploration approach mirrors successful historical discoveries in the region. Additionally, the company maintains a joint venture with Agnico Eagle on an existing resource, creating potential for corporate action that could accelerate development timelines.

Aurion Resource continues generating excellent results at their Kaaresselkä discovery in Finland, though market attention has been diverted by potential corporate consolidation with Rupert Resources. The duo emphasized that investors have been overlooking the discovery's significance, with drill results that would generate substantial market interest if located in better-known jurisdictions like Red Lake. The discovery sits approximately 5 kilometers from the Rupert project on 100% Aurion-owned ground, providing strategic value regardless of consolidation outcomes.

Major Development Catalysts Under Company Control

The portfolio's most significant near-term catalyst by weighting involves Omai Gold’s upcoming resource update. The previous resource estimate excluded significant drilling that has since been completed, and ongoing mine operations have demonstrated mineralization extensions in multiple directions.

"The drill holes keep coming, the mineralization has been proven to continue beyond what was drilled before, the company has hit some of the wider intercepts to date, and it just feels like it's getting better and better in a slower way - every drill hole just advances it a little bit more."

The resource update is expected to demonstrate both increased tonnage and potentially higher grades, with the duo believing it will elevate Omai to top-tier gold development project status.

Beyond the resource update, Omai’s is conducting a high-risk, high-reward deep drilling program beneath the current pit design to test whether the mineralized structure extends to depth. Success could transform the project from a conventional open-pit mine to a multi-decade operation, fundamentally altering its valuation category.

Arizona Sonoran represents another major development catalyst, with the duo expecting both a resource update and preliminary feasibility study (PFS) that will validate assumptions from their previous preliminary assessment. The team has labeled this project as sitting "on the border of tier one, tier two" classification for copper development projects, though they note the scarcity of quality copper development opportunities in current markets.

Recent corporate actions including royalty buybacks, project financing consultation, and strategic land acquisitions demonstrate the duo's confidence in the project's advancement. As Sam observed, these activities typically require capital commitments that junior developers cannot afford, suggesting strong conviction in the project's value proposition. The PFS will establish benchmarks for future development and clarify relationships between option partners Rio Tinto and Hudbay Minerals.

Market Commentary From Sam Pelaez and Derek Mcpherson of Olive Resource Capital

Corporate Action Opportunities

The discussion identified several portfolio positions with potential M&A or corporate action catalysts, historically common ahead of major mining conferences. Sailfish Royalty presents an indirect M&A opportunity through their royalty on the Spring Valley mine in Nevada, which has received final environmental permits and is reportedly subject to a competitive sale process among public mining companies.

The transition from private equity ownership to a public mining company would provide greater visibility into development plans and timing, potentially unlocking significant value for royalty holders. The duo's rough valuation suggests the royalty could trade at levels comparable to recent transactions like Silicon and Merlin, though with higher near-term cash flows and earlier production timelines.

Troilus represents a direct takeover candidate, particularly as the company approaches permitting milestones. Derek suggested the project might benefit from federal government fast-tracking initiatives, which could accelerate permitting beyond current expectations. From an acquirer's perspective, optimal timing would involve completion before the company draws down on project financing, allowing a larger operator to manage construction with potentially lower capital costs.

The Aurion-Rupert consolidation remains a complex situation involving multiple parties including Agnico Eagle and B2Gold. B2Gold's 70% joint venture partnership with Aurion and their recent completion of construction at Nunavut positions them as a potential participant in any resolution. B2Gold's historical expertise in Arctic Circle construction, dating back to their involvement with the Kupol mine in Russia before sanctions-related divestiture.

Portfolio Management & Strategic Positioning

Throughout the discussion, the duo emphasized their systematic approach to portfolio evaluation, describing the necessity of constantly assessing each position's risk-return profile and remaining opportunity. They noted moderate position trimming during the summer to raise capital for new opportunities, indicating selective rather than wholesale portfolio changes.

The team's concentration in certain positions, particularly Omai, reflects high conviction rather than lack of diversification. Their willingness to maintain significant exposures while selectively adding new positions like CANX demonstrates active portfolio management aligned with evolving market opportunities.

Considerations

The discussion highlighted typical seasonal patterns in junior mining markets, with news flow traditionally diminishing during late August before resuming after Labor Day. This creates opportunities for systematic portfolio review and preparation for the busy conference season, when deal-making and corporate development activities typically accelerate.

The duo noted the concentration of cash on established mining companies' balance sheets following strong operational performance, creating potential for increased M&A activity. With limited exceptions like Dundee Precious Metals and Equinox Gold, which are focused on recent acquisitions and operational ramp-ups, most potential acquirers maintain strong financial positions supporting potential transaction activity.

Investment Implications

The comprehensive portfolio review reveals that the duo is positioned for multiple potential catalysts across drilling results, development milestones, and corporate actions through year-end. Their systematic approach to catalyst identification and timing reflects institutional-quality investment methodology applied to junior mining markets. The concentration in select high-conviction positions like Omai, combined with opportunistic additions and selective trimming, demonstrates active portfolio management aligned with evolving market dynamics. Investors should monitor the identified catalyst timeline, particularly Omai's resource update and Arizona Sonoran's PFS, while recognizing that conference season historically accelerates M&A activity that could benefit several portfolio positions.