Strong Economics Backdrop Near-Term Milestones - Gold Developer Newcore Poised to Rerate

Newcore Gold advancing high-grade Ghana gold project with robust economics per 2021 PEA and funded for 12-18 months of key derisking activities towards a construction decision.
- Newcore Gold is advancing the Enchi gold project in Ghana. The company is currently trading with a market cap of only C$25m, which presents a tremendous deep value investment opportunity with considerable upside potential from their district scale exploration asset. The valuation today has Newcore trading at ~$8/oz inthe ground and less than 0.10x the NPV of the project.
- Management and board are truly aligned with shareholders through their 20% ownership of Newcore, which has been invested along side shareholders.
- Newcore Gold’s valuation is fundamentally underpinned by robust economics that were presented in a 2021 PEA that highlighted a ~$300M after-tax NPV 5% at a $1,850/oz gold price.
- Newcore Gold is updating the PEA in H1 2024 to incorporate an updated Mineral Resource Estimate announced in March 2023, that converted substantial ounces from inferred to indicated.
- The updated PEA will further de-risk the project, along with the additional metallurgical testwork and environmental/social baseline work that has been completed.
- Management believes the updated PEA will continue to highlight the opportunity for Enchi to become a 100K oz/yr producer at a low capex of around $100M.
- They have funding for the next 12-18 months to continue advancing Enchi, but will need additional capital for a PFS and ultimately project development.
Advancing A Robust Gold Project in Ghana
Newcore Gold is a Canada-based gold exploration and development company focused entirely on advancing its 100% owned Enchi gold project in southwest Ghana. Located in a mining-friendly jurisdiction with existing producers like Newmont and AngloGold Ashanti, Enchi currently hosts an Indicated Mineral Resource of 743,500 gold ounces, plus 972,000 gold ounces in the Inferred category. The project displays clear resource expansion potential across the large, 216 square kilometer district-scale land package.
According to President and CEO Luke Alexander, the 216 km2 Enchi property provides exposure to a project with solid economics that can be a near-term producer to fuel further growth from exploration. He highlights that “Enchi is fundamentally underpinned by very robust economics that was put out in a 2021 PEA.”
Interview with President & CEO, Luke Alexander
Updating Robust 2021 PEA
The 2021 preliminary economic assessment (PEA) outlined some strong project metrics based on an open pit, heap leach operation expected to produce over 95K ounces per year over an initial 10-year mine life. With an after-tax NPV5% of ~$300M at $1,850/oz gold, the PEA showed an after-tax internal rate of return (IRR) of 54% and a 2-year project payback period. Initial capex came in at only $100M.
As Alexander explains, “If we look back at the PEA we put out in 2021, if we look at it at an $1850 gold price, you're looking at an after-tax NPV of $300 million, after-tax IRR of 54%, less than a 2-year payback, and a nice production profile of over 95,000 ounces per year.”
However, he sees room to improve on those already robust numbers, targeting an updated PEA release in H1 2024. Since the 2021 economic study, Newcore has focused on de-risking and advancing Enchi which included issuing an updated NI 43-101 Mineral Resource Estimate in March 2023. That helped grow the resource and upgrade a significant portion from the inferred category into the higher confidence indicated category.
According to Alexander, “That updated resource grew the overall size of the resource but it also really de-risks the ounces in the ground. We moved 740,000 ounces from the inferred category into the indicated category, which gives more confidence in those ounces as well and we have another 970,000 ounces of inferred on top of that.”
He believes the larger indicated resource base they can now incorporate into mine planning and economic studies for Enchi will ultimately improve the already attractive numbers. As Alexander notes, “We think that we're going to be able to put out an even better more robust PEA in the first half of next year that's been significantly de-risked.”
Ongoing Metallurgical and Environmental Work
In addition to the resource update, Newcore has completed substantial metallurgical test work over the past year which will also feed into the next economic study. This includes extraction recoveries over 90% from recent bulk samples and additional column test results confirming the amenability of Enchi’s gold mineralization to heap leaching. Alexander also highlights the environmental and social baseline work that is ongoing, along with hydrology studies...all important aspects of further de-risking the project.
As he explains, “A lot of the work that we’ve done, and that you'll see within the PEA that we will put out in the first half of next year, is at a PFS level. The metallurgical work for example. We've done a huge amount on the project over the last couple of years and that's starting to get to a PFS level.”
Funded for Near Term Work Program
Unlike many exploration and development companies struggling in the current market environment, Newcore maintains a relatively strong cash balance. With approximately C$5M at the end of Q3 2023, Alexander notes “We are funded for the updating of the PEA which we’ll get out in the first half of next year.”
He highlights their enviable position compared to peers, stating “When I talk to investors and the market, they go ‘Wow you guys have C$5 million in the bank, you're in a very enviable position.’”
That funding will support completing the updated PEA, additional met work, baseline environmental studies, and condemnation drilling over the next 12 to 18 months. The main outstanding item needed to advance Enchi to a PFS is further infill drilling, which they will assess later depending on market conditions and investor feedback.
As Alexander explains, “We'll ultimately have a lot of the work done to a PFS level, and the infill drilling is probably the most expensive piece of producing a PFS.” He estimates the additional drilling required at around 10,000 meters, equating to $1-2M in costs.
Ultimately Targeting Construction Decision
According to Alexander, the intention behind steadily advancing Enchi is to de-risk the project and build investor confidence to reach a construction decision in the coming years. Based on the economics outlined already, he believes they can achieve that with relatively modest funding requirements.
As he notes, “Anytime you start thinking about the corporate investor, when they look at projects, they want to see those projects de-risked all the way through. They want it to be at a stage where you can ultimately just come in and build the project without having to do all the work that leads up to that construction decision."
By taking this staged approach of building on the PEA to a PFS and feasibility study, Alexander sees the potential for Newcore’s market valuation to rerate significantly from the current valuation. As he says, “As we go from PEA to PFS to construction decision you see that re-rating happen and now you're all of a sudden potentially raising construction capital at a $100M+ valuation.”
That would make raising the required capital for construction much more feasible for a small company like Newcore. Alexander believes getting to that advanced stage combined with supportive major institutional shareholders can pave the way to unlocking further value from Enchi.
“The advantage we’ve got is we’ve got a project we can build and the economics speak for themselves from that perspective."
Newcore Gold presents a unique speculative investment opportunity. A junior gold developer with over 1.7m ounces already defined, demonstrating robust economics, located in a top mining jurisdiction, and led by a proven management team. As they continue derisking Enchi over the next 12-18 months while many peers struggle to just survive, Newcore may be one of the emerging developers able to take advantage of the eventual recovery in the gold sector.
The Investment Thesis for Newcore Gold
- Enchi's strong PEA economics provide firm project foundation
- Upcoming updated PEA and met/environmental work can further de-risk an already attractive project
- Funding for next 12-18 months of milestones with C$5M cash, supportive deep-pocketed institutions
- Continued advancement towards construction decisions provides rerating potential
- Takeover/JV target, with only $18M current valuation
- Strong growth optionality beyond starter open-pit resources
Newcore Gold's Enchi gold project in Ghana hosts over 1.7m ounces of indicated and inferred resources. The existing 2021 preliminary economic assessment outlines the potential for a 95k oz/yr producer at a low initial capex of around $100M. The company is sufficiently funded over the next 12-18 months to finish an updated PEA study and additional de-risking work. Newcore Gold advancing its Enchi project through economic studies provides a rerating potential and ultimately a viable path to production.
Analyst's Notes


