Strong Fundamentals & Progress at Wheeler River Position Denison Mines as a Top Uranium Leverage Pick

With its Wheeler River uranium project significantly derisked operationally & financially, Denison Mines makes for a top leverage play on a structural bull market in uranium now underway.
- Denison Mines is focused on advancing its flagship Wheeler River uranium project towards a development decision in 2025 and production by late 2027.
- The company believes the uranium market fundamentals point to higher prices needed to incentivize new mine development.
- Denison has taken steps to de-risk Wheeler River technically and also position itself financially, with a strong balance sheet.
- The company has a portfolio of projects that provides additional leverage to higher uranium prices.
- Denison aims to layer its future uranium sales through contracts with utilities at varied pricing mechanisms.
The Bull Case for Uranium and Denison Mines
Uranium prices have embarked on a major bull run over the past 2 years, with the spot price rising from below $30 per pound in early 2023 to now over $100 in early 2024. This price resurgence comes after a lost decade for uranium in the aftermath of the 2011 Fukushima disaster, with years of oversupply conditions keeping prices depressed.
However, with demand now outstripping supply, higher prices are needed to incentivize new mines to be built. This sets up uranium for what could be a prolonged bull market over the next decade. Forward-looking miners like Denison Mines stand to benefit enormously from higher realizations as they advance projects towards production.
Interview with President & CEO, David Cates
Fundamentals Point to Prolonged Strength
In recent years, large uncovered utility requirements have emerged while supply curtailments have mounted. This is an ideal recipe for higher prices. Denison CEO David Cates explains: "We do not have surplus material that's sloshing around in the hands of intermediaries that are looking to then market it and sell it for small spreads...If material comes available to the market, it might actually move the price up rather than down."
With limited pounds available, buyers are bidding up prices in search of material. And higher prices will be required to bring on new supply. Cates suggests costs are now above previous assumptions: "...the projects that are needed are high cost, high-risk jurisdictions and...the cost of money is up too so the IRRs that people need are not 12% anymore."
A structural supply deficit looks locked in for uranium. And sustained higher prices will be the market's solution.
Wheeler River Advancing Steadily
As a developer, Denison Mines is focused on advancing its flagship Wheeler River project in Canada's Athabasca Basin towards production in 2028.
The company has worked extensively over recent years to technically derisk the project while also putting itself in an extremely solid financial position. Denison has completed a feasibility study on Wheeler River while also executing a successful field test recovering over 14,000 pounds of uranium.
Regarding permitting, Cates notes: "...our team has great familiarity with the federal regulatory regime which I think I would describe as being the critical path."
He expresses confidence in progressing through the final stages of licensing over the next two years based on interactions so far. Concurrently, Denison has built up its balance sheet and also accumulated a strategic uranium inventory now worth over $300 million that offers funding flexibility. Cates sums up the advantageous position this provides compared to peers: "I would challenge you to find another developer in the commodity space that is as well capitalized as we are at this stage. Project's not yet permitted, we have no debt and yet we have working capital and investments that are roughly at the level of our initial capex."
With Wheeler River seemingly de-risked both operationally and financially, Denison appears well on track to meet its 2025 development decision target.
Additional Leverage Through Portfolio
Beyond the flagship operation, Denison boasts numerous additional projects at various stages. This includes a minority stake in the McClean Lake mill, which processes ore from nearby mines. It also holds interests in early-stage exploration projects like Waterbury Lake, Midwest, and Moon Lake, which offer additional upside. And at the formerly producing McClean Lake mine, operations are set to restart in 2025.
While smaller in scale, these provide investors with added leverage to the uranium price via Denison. As Cates says: "...I am really excited about the portfolio piece...It gives us more to do and it gives our investors more exposure."
The Investment Thesis for Denison Mines
With fundamentals pointing to sustained higher uranium prices, leverage opportunities abound in miners' advancing projects, Denison Mines offers investors:
- Flagship Wheeler River project de-risked and progressing on schedule
- Funding secured with project capex attainable at present prices
- Additional portfolio of assets adding exposure
- Valuation disconnect closing as execution continues
- Accumulate shares ahead of forthcoming major project milestones
- Production coming online by 2028 right in time to capture strong pricing
Denison finds itself in an enviable position during a burgeoning uranium bull market. Its shares should be considered a good leverage play as the company advances Wheeler River towards first production later this decade just as market strength endures. Significant upside remains over a multi-year investment time horizon.
Analyst's Notes


