US Uranium Outlook & Australia's A$331 Billion Nuclear Plan

• Australia's opposition party has unveiled a A$331 billion plan to develop a nuclear power industry, with the first reactor online by 2036.
• The plan aims for 38% nuclear power in Australia's energy mix by 2050, which modeling suggests would be up to 44% cheaper than the current renewables-focused plan. Australia has vast uranium reserves but currently only limited uranium mining, so this plan could significantly change Australia's uranium industry.
• ‍High upfront capital costs are a key barrier to nuclear energy. Economies of scale from building multiple reactors is key to making nuclear affordable.
• Nuclear fuel is poised for a major resurgence driven by growing demand and constrained supply. The US, in particular, is looking to bolster domestic uranium production and reduce reliance on imports.
• Frontier Energy, Peninsula Energy, GTI Energy, enCore Energy, Ur-Energy are among many uranium companies posing for a major resurgence driven by growing demand and constrained supply.

As the world grapples with the challenges of climate change, energy security and affordability, nuclear power is experiencing a resurgence of interest globally. For investors, the uranium fuel that powers nuclear reactors presents an intriguing opportunity. Australia, with its vast uranium reserves, is now seriously considering a major nuclear power program - a move that could dramatically reshape both its energy and uranium mining industries. While industry executives believe Trump's policies will remain supportive of nuclear power in the US.

Australia's Nuclear Power Plan

In a potentially game-changing development, Australia's opposition coalition has proposed a A$331 billion plan to develop a nuclear power industry in the country. The ambitious roadmap envisions the first reactor coming online by 2036 and aims for nuclear to provide 38% of Australia's electricity by 2050.

Modeling commissioned by the coalition suggests this nuclear-inclusive energy mix would be up to 44% cheaper than the current government's renewables-centric approach.

"This will make electricity reliable," said opposition leader Peter Dutton. "It will make it more consistent. It will make it cheaper for Australians, and it will help us decarbonise."^[1]

The Uranium Opportunity

For uranium markets and mining companies, this shift in Australia's stance represents a significant opportunity. Australia holds an estimated one-third of the world's known uranium reserves, yet mining activity has remained limited due to regulatory restrictions and a lack of domestic demand.

Currently, Australia has three operational uranium mines, including BHP's massive Olympic Dam site. But this "underutilisation" contrasts sharply with growing global demand for uranium as more countries pursue nuclear power. Danny Price, Managing Director of Frontier Economics, said "the data speaks for itself" in terms of nuclear's cost-competitiveness from a conducted modeling for the opposition's plan:

"You can’t compare renewable energy and nuclear power generation and costs like apples to apples. We’ve done the modelling in these AEMO scenarios with a wider, and more detailed, lens on how the two options compare in real life, and the data speaks for itself. In both scenarios, including nuclear power in our energy mix is cheaper – by up to 44% - for Australians in the medium-term future." -  Danny Price, Frontier Economics^[2]

The Minerals Council of Australia concurred, stating the analysis demonstrates nuclear power should be a critical technology on the table for Australia to consider and dispels arguments that nuclear is uneconomic^[1]. Overturning Australia's nuclear ban and activating its uranium endowment could position the nation as a key supplier in an expanding global market.

US Uranium Outlook for 2025

The change in US administration from President Biden to the re-election of former President Trump is not expected to significantly impact the uranium market or nuclear energy sector in 2025. Industry executives believe Trump's policies will remain supportive of nuclear power.

"I think that you're going to see continued support for the nuclear fuel cycle," said Paul Goranson, CEO of enCore Energy. "I don't think anything negative will happen. I think that demand is going to continue to go up and I just don't see things getting easier [in 2025]"^[4]

However, domestic uranium production in the US remains limited compared to global output. US mines produced only around 50,000 lbs in 2023, a fraction of the 14.3 million lbs produced by Kazakhstan alone. While several US producers like Peninsula Energy, Ur-Energy, enCore Energy and Paladin Energy are working to resume production, they face ongoing hurdles.

Ur-Energy's CEO John Cash discussed the increase electricity demand is driving more reactors to stay online. Uranium mines globally are struggling to ramp up output as quickly as previously expected,

"We've seen a number of announcements over the last few months of companies, including Ur-Energy, the ramp up is slower than we expected it to be, and we expect to see more of that globally going forward, and that's going to put more pressure on that supply-demand fundamental."^[5]

Dustin Garrow, industry expert, noted that Trump's relationship with Elon Musk, a strong proponent of nuclear energy, could bolster the positive outlook:

"I think the risk profile going forward in the market is increasing and it's from all kinds of different reasons. It's going to take longer to see significant production. It's going to take more capital and even if you add up all the US pounds, it's not a significant volume."^[4]

Tariffs are another consideration, but industry executives do not anticipate major changes. Goranson stated he does not expect the uranium trade to change, the Russian uranium ban or waiver process to be altered, or Trump's proposed 25% tariff on Canadian imports to have a large impact.

While government support for nuclear power under a Trump administration bodes well for uranium demand, the US will likely remain a small player on the supply side in 2025. Domestic projects face a lengthy road to meaningful production, leaving the country reliant on imports even as geopolitical tensions shift global trade flows. For investors, US uranium developers may offer long-term potential, but near-term US production growth appears limited.

Barriers & Solutions

To be sure, nuclear power faces headwinds, with high upfront capital costs being a primary barrier. Achieving cost-competitiveness will require capturing economies of scale.

"All the countries that have managed to make nuclear power affordable build [reactors] in fours and sixes and eights," - Aidan Morrison of the Centre for Independent Studies.^[1]

Australia's plan for seven plants by 2050 could unlock these efficiencies. The Australian Nuclear Association added:

“Australia needs access to all available clean zero-carbon technologies, including nuclear energy, to meet the challenges of climate change, affordability, and energy security.”^[1]

Uranium Companies to Watch

Energy Fuels

Energy Fuels stands out as a unique critical minerals hub built around its uranium operations, with the White Mesa Mill providing a strategic advantage as the only operating conventional uranium mill in the US. The company's diversified revenue streams across uranium, rare earths, and vanadium, combined with its strong balance sheet ($180M working capital, zero debt) and existing uranium contracts at $84/lb, provides investors multiple paths to value creation in the critical minerals space.

The company's recent expansion into Madagascar with the Toara project, which had its suspension lifted, represents a significant growth opportunity in both rare earths and heavy mineral sands. With ongoing uranium production from three active mines, plans to restart additional operations, and a clear strategy to become a major player in the critical minerals supply chain, Energy Fuels offers investors exposure to multiple commodity cycles while maintaining its core focus on uranium production.

Peninsula Energy

Peninsula Energy's restart of uranium production at its Lance projects in Wyoming positions the company as an emerging US supplier, well-timed with the ongoing upturn in the uranium market. With first sales expected in Q2 2025 and a clear path to ramping up to 1.5-1.7 million pounds per year by 2027, Peninsula offers investors near-term production exposure.

The company's large, long-life asset base supports a multi-decade mining operation with the potential for further expansion. Peninsula's strong balance sheet, with ample funding to complete construction and reach production, reduces financing risks making its US-focused projects ideally positioned to benefit from this favorable backdrop and the overall role of nuclear in the low-carbon energy transition.

Premier American Uranium

Premier American Uranium provides investors focused exposure to US uranium exploration and development at a time when domestic supply is becoming increasingly critical to energy security and nuclear growth plans. Their portfolio approach across New Mexico, Wyoming, and Colorado's Uravan belt, combined with their active drilling programs and strategic acquisition strategy, positions them similarly to where current successful US producers were a decade ago, offering investors ground-floor exposure to a potential future US producer.

The company's strategy of complementary acquisitions and focus on projects that could either be advanced independently or attract interest from existing producers creates multiple paths to value creation. With drilling activities underway in Wyoming, planned exploration in New Mexico, and a market environment that increasingly favors domestic uranium production, Premier American Uranium offers investors early-stage exposure to the US uranium renaissance with a clear path to resource growth and development.

GTI Energy

GTI Energy's 50% increase in uranium resources at its Lo Herma ISR project in Wyoming enhances the company's investment appeal as an emerging US developer. With 8.57 million pounds now defined and additional exploration upside, GTI has a meaningful foundation to build upon in a proven mining jurisdiction.

The upcoming scoping study on Lo Herma, expected in H1 2025, is a key catalyst to demonstrate the project's potential economics and development options. GTI's relatively advanced stage compared to junior explorers allows investors to gain exposure to the uranium upside while mitigating permitting and development risks.

Wyoming's track record of uranium production and the growing focus on domestic US supply in light of geopolitical factors further strengthen GTI's investment case.

IsoEnergy

IsoEnergy offers investors exposure to both high-grade uranium assets in Canada's Athabasca Basin and near-term US production potential with it's Tony M mine, and the proposed acquisition of Anfield Energy's Shootaring Canyon Mill in Utah. The company's strong financial backing, planned US listing, and strategic positioning across three tier-one jurisdictions (US, Canada, Australia) makes it an attractive vehicle for investors seeking broad uranium sector exposure with both near-term catalysts and long-term growth potential.

The acquisition of the Shootaring Canyon Mill, along with a substantial portfolio of uranium properties in Utah, provides IsoEnergy with strategic control over its production destiny and significant operational flexibility. Their ability to either toll mill through Energy Fuels' White Mesa Mill or develop their own processing capacity, combined with strong state-level support in Utah and their multi-jurisdictional approach, offers investors a de-risked path to uranium production with substantial upside potential.

The Investment Thesis for Uranium

• Uranium demand set to rise as nuclear power expands globally to meet climate and energy security goals
• Australia's enormous uranium reserves represent an untapped resource that could be activated by a change in government policy
• Investing in uranium miners and explorers with high-quality Australian assets could provide exposure to both growing global demand and potential explosive growth in Australia
• Look for companies with proven, low-cost and long-life deposits, experienced management teams, and strong balance sheets to weather development timelines
• Consider royalty and streaming companies for lower-risk exposure across the uranium project lifecycle

Key Takeaway

The outlook for uranium in Australia and the US presents a tale of two contrasting trajectories in 2025. Australia's opposition party has unveiled a transformative plan to develop a substantial nuclear power industry, which could unleash the nation's vast untapped uranium resources and position it as a major global supplier. In contrast, while the US uranium sector is expected to enjoy continued government support under a Trump administration, domestic production growth appears limited in the near-term as US miners face ongoing operational hurdles and the country remains reliant on imports.

_Reference:

1. _{Dalton, D. (December 2024). NucNet. Australia/Opposition Unveils $211 Billion Plan For Nuclear Power Industry With First Reactor Online By 2036}
2. _{Price, D. (December 2024). Frontier Economics. Economic analysis of including nuclear power in the NEM}
3. _{World Nuclear News (January 2025). Nuclear Becomes Eligible for Hydrogen Tax Credits Under Updated US Rules}
4. _{Hancock, M.C. (December 2024). COMMODITIES 2025: Market Participants See Potential Supply Issues for U3O8 Spot Market in 2025}
5. _{Gordon, M. (December 2024). Crux Investor. Uranium Set to Power Higher as Supply Lags Accelerating Nuclear Demand}