22 Million Pounds of Uranium Resource Positions to the Rising Nuclear Demand for AI & Data Centers

• Yellow Cake holds about 22 million pounds of physical uranium stored primarily in Canada and France, having grown from $200 million at IPO to over $1.5 billion in market capitalization as uranium prices increased from $21 to $76 per pound.
• Major technology companies including Meta and Amazon are making substantial investments in nuclear power infrastructure, with Amazon alone committing $20 billion to data center complexes, representing half the market capitalization of the entire uranium sector.
• The global uranium market faces a structural supply deficit with current production of approximately 165 million pounds annually against demand of 180 million pounds and rising, creating a gap that is expected to persist for 3-5 years due to lengthy mine development timelines.
• Supply-side constraints are intensifying as leading producers Kazakhstan and Cameco operate near capacity while secondary supply sources including inventories decline, with US utilities now holding approximately two years or less of uranium reserves against an 18-24 month fuel cycle.
• The company maintains a strategic purchasing agreement with Kazatomprom through 2027 allowing $100 million annual uranium acquisitions at spot prices, providing significant market access in an increasingly thin and illiquid market.

Yellow Cake PLC operates in a uranium market characterized by fundamental structural imbalances that create compelling investment opportunities for patient capital. The company's business model of acquiring and holding physical uranium positions it directly to benefit from what CEO Andre Liebenberg describes as an inevitable price appreciation driven by supply constraints and growing demand.

The global uranium market currently produces approximately 165 million pounds annually against demand of 180 million pounds, creating an immediate supply deficit of 15 million pounds. This gap is projected to widen as nuclear capacity expansion accelerates globally, particularly in China, which is constructing 26-28 reactors simultaneously, and as technology companies increasingly turn to nuclear power for reliable, clean electricity to power data centers and artificial intelligence operations.

Technology Sector Catalyst for Uranium

The emergence of technology companies as significant drivers of nuclear demand represents a transformative development for the uranium sector. Meta's recent announcement of major nuclear partnerships and Amazon's $20 billion commitment to data center complexes highlight the scale of capital these companies are willing to deploy for energy security.

"Amazon's $20 billion into two data center complexes is half the market capitalization of the whole uranium sector. That's just a couple of data centers for these guys. If a tech company had to put 20 billion dollars into the mining space, you could build a pretty big project for that."

This logic suggests technology companies may extend their vertical integration into uranium supply chains if fuel security becomes a constraint to their operations. The financial resources available to technology companies dwarf the uranium sector's market capitalization. Amazon's $20 billion data center investment alone represents half the market value of the entire uranium industry, suggesting these companies possess sufficient capital to directly address supply constraints through upstream investments if necessary.

Inventory Depletion & Contracting Cycles

A critical factor supporting Yellow Cake's investment thesis is the depletion of secondary uranium supplies that have historically supplemented primary production. US utilities now hold approximately two years as what Liebenberg characterizes as approaching "the low point" of inventory levels:

"The US on average is probably down to 2 years or less. You put that in the context of a fuel cycle which is 18 months to to 24 months long, that's I would say that's sort of getting to the low point of their infantry."

This inventory depletion occurs after nearly a decade of utilities contracting below consumption levels, a practice that cannot continue indefinitely. The eventual resumption of utility contracting represents a key catalyst for uranium price appreciation, as these buyers will need to compete for limited spot market supplies.

The term market, where most uranium transactions occur, has shown stability at $80 per pound since March, while spot prices have exhibited significant volatility. This divergence reflects the thin nature of the spot market, where small volumes can create substantial price movements – a dynamic that benefits Yellow Cake's positioning.

Interview with Executive Director & CEO, Andre Liebenberg

Operational Model & Risk Profile

Yellow Cake's business model eliminates operational mining risks while providing direct exposure to uranium price appreciation. The company's holdings of just under 22 million pounds of physical uranium are stored securely in established facilities, avoiding the geological, regulatory, and execution risks associated with mining operations.

The company's strategic agreement with Kazatomprom provides significant competitive advantages in uranium acquisition. The arrangement allows Yellow Cake to purchase up to $100 million annually at spot prices through 2027, providing assured access to supply in an increasingly constrained market. As Liebenberg notes when Sprott recently raised $200 million for uranium purchases:

"With the the spot market today, you saw Sprott raise $200 million and the spot market popped $7 without them spending a penny. It's a very thin and liquid market. So $100 million volume will move the price and that's why that deal is hugely valuable for us."

Financial Performance & Valuation

Yellow Cake's track record demonstrates the effectiveness of its strategy. The company raised $200 million at IPO when uranium traded at $21 per pound and has grown to a market capitalization exceeding $1.5 billion with uranium at $76 per pound. This performance illustrates the direct correlation between uranium prices and the company's value proposition. As Liebenberg explains:

"We raised $200 million and bought uranium at $21. We're sitting at $76 now. When we IPO'd and raised $200 million, $100 million was a big increment. We're sort of north of $1.5 billion today."

The company's net asset value provides a transparent valuation framework based on the market value of its physical uranium holdings. Recent trading has seen the stock approach NAV, indicating market recognition of the company's value proposition. The company's ability to trade near NAV validates the effectiveness of its strategy in providing investors with direct uranium exposure.

Geographic & Geopolitical Considerations

Supply-side constraints appear particularly acute when examining the limited number of producing jurisdictions. Chinese ownership of major Namibian mines and Kazakhstan's commercial relationships with China and Russia create a "bifurcated market" where Western utilities may face increasing competition for uranium supplies. As Liebenberg notes:

"Kazakhstan, half of their material goes to China. If you include Russia, It's probably closer to 2/3's. The two operating mines in Namibia are both owned by the Chinese - that goes to China."

The uranium market's geographic concentration creates both risks and opportunities for Western utilities and investors. Government policy support for nuclear power has strengthened significantly across major economies. The World Bank's decision to resume nuclear project funding and support from 14 major banks for tripling nuclear capacity create a favorable regulatory and financing environment for nuclear expansion.

"Politicians are now pro nuclear cross party positivity all around," Liebenberg observes, noting the bipartisan support that has emerged for nuclear power. While policy support alone cannot solve supply constraints, it removes regulatory barriers and creates momentum for private sector investment in nuclear infrastructure.

Small modular reactor development represents another demand catalyst, with Ontario granting the first construction license for an SMR unit at Darlington. These reactors utilize conventional uranium fuel and could achieve commercial operation by the end of the decade, creating additional demand for Yellow Cake's uranium holdings.

The Investment Thesis for Yellow Cake

• Direct Uranium Exposure: Provides pure-play exposure to uranium price appreciation without operational mining risks, offering transparency through NAV-based valuation
• Supply Deficit Positioning: Benefits from structural supply deficit of 15+ million pounds annually with limited new production capacity expected before 2028-2030
• Technology Sector Catalyst: Positioned to benefit from technology companies' growing nuclear investments and potential vertical integration into uranium supply chains
• Inventory Depletion Theme: Utility inventory levels approaching critical thresholds will force resumption of contracting cycles, supporting price appreciation
• Strategic Market Access: Kazatomprom agreement provides assured uranium acquisition capability through 2027 in increasingly thin and illiquid market
• Policy Tailwinds: Government support for nuclear expansion removes regulatory barriers and creates favorable investment environment
• Proven Track Record: Demonstrated ability to capture uranium price appreciation with transparent, risk-controlled business model
• Market Structure Benefits: Positioned to benefit from spot market illiquidity where large transactions create significant price impacts

Yellow Cake PLC represents a compelling investment opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the uranium sector's supply-demand fundamentals without operational mining risks. The company's strategic positioning, proven track record, and direct exposure to uranium price appreciation create multiple pathways for value creation. The convergence of supply constraints, inventory depletion, technology sector demand, and policy support creates a favorable environment for uranium price appreciation over the next 3-5 years. While timing remains uncertain, the company's patient capital approach and strategic market access position it well to capture the benefits of an eventual uranium price recovery.

Macro Thematic Analysis

The uranium market sits at the intersection of multiple powerful macro themes reshaping global energy markets. Climate change mitigation efforts, energy security concerns, and the exponential growth in electricity demand from artificial intelligence and data centers are driving a fundamental reassessment of nuclear power's role in the energy mix.

Technology companies' emergence as major electricity consumers represents perhaps the most significant development in decades for nuclear demand. These companies possess the financial resources, long-term planning horizons, and operational sophistication to drive nuclear project development at unprecedented scale. Unlike traditional utilities constrained by regulatory oversight and capital limitations, technology companies can make multi-billion dollar commitments to secure energy supplies for their operations.

The supply-side response to this growing demand faces significant constraints. Uranium mining requires extensive permitting, substantial capital investment, and years of development time. The industry's consolidation around a handful of producing countries creates additional supply security concerns, particularly as geopolitical tensions influence resource allocation. Liebenberg explains:

"It takes a long time to permit and bring on a new mine. So the supply will come because it always does in the long term. Our thesis is that in the next 3 to 5 years, it's very hard to see meaningful new supply."

This supply-demand imbalance occurs against a backdrop of supportive government policies for nuclear expansion. The bipartisan political support for nuclear power in major economies, combined with international financial institutions' renewed willingness to fund nuclear projects, creates a favorable environment for sector growth. However, as Liebenberg notes:

"Someone other than governments need to do the work."

This emphasizes that private sector capital deployment remains essential for addressing supply constraints.