• The 2024–2025 New York salt shortage exposed deep structural weaknesses in North America's de-icing supply chain, leading to price surges and emergency imports.
• Municipalities are now actively diversifying away from single-source reliance, reinforcing demand for new, reliable, local supply.
• Contracted salt prices have structurally rerated from $43 per tonne to $58 per tonne, improving economics for new entrants with lower operating costs.
• Atlas Salt's Great Atlantic Salt Project is positioned to become North America's first new salt mine in nearly 30 years, aligning directly with the supply deficit and diversification trend.
• With a low-cost Updated Feasibility Study (All-In Sustaining Cost $34.9 per tonne), 4 million tonnes per annum design capacity, and advanced permitting progress, Atlas Salt sits at the center of a multi-year shift toward reliability premiums in essential minerals.

Market Crisis as an Investment Signal

The 2024–2025 winter season delivered a stark reminder of the fragility embedded within North America's de-icing salt supply chain. American Rock Salt (ARS), a dominant regional supplier, failed to meet contractual commitments to municipalities across New York State, forcing local governments into emergency procurement at prices reaching two to three times their contracted rates. According to the state Office of General Services as reported in November 2025, ARS shipped more than 2.1 million tonnes by January compared to 1.8 million tonnes for the entire prior season, yet still fell short of demand.

This was not a simple operational hiccup. It was a structural failure that revealed the inherent risks of over-concentration in essential commodity supply chains. The New York salt crisis accelerated a fundamental repricing of supply chain resilience, creating a tangible investment opportunity for new entrants capable of delivering dependable, cost-effective production.

Atlas Salt, advancing the Great Atlantic Salt Project in Newfoundland and Labrador, sits directly at the intersection of this structural shift. The company's development timeline, resource quality, and strategic positioning align with a market that is now willing to pay for supply security.

Nolan Peterson, Chief Executive Officer of Atlas Salt, frames the broader challenge:

"In North America we don't produce enough salt for our demand and we actually import about 30% of our demand from foreign jurisdictions such as Chile and Egypt."

Reliability Premiums in Essential Minerals

Institutional investors are recalibrating how they assess essential commodity producers, moving beyond traditional metrics to incorporate operational stability and supply chain resilience into long-term valuations. This shift mirrors structural changes observed in potash, copper concentrates, and metallurgical coal markets when supply constraints emerged and reliability premiums became embedded in contract pricing.

Salt is a particularly instructive case study. As an essential, inelastic commodity, demand for de-icing salt does not decline during economic downturns. Municipalities require consistent, predictable supply to maintain public safety during winter weather events. The New York crisis validated the fragility of single-supplier ecosystems and demonstrated that price alone is insufficient if delivery reliability cannot be assured.

In the wake of the ARS supply failure, New York municipalities reversed course, expanding their vendor pools and actively seeking alternative suppliers. According to the state Office of General Services, American Rock Salt's coverage dropped from 30 counties to 17, while Compass Minerals gained market share. This is not a cyclical adjustment but a structural change in procurement strategy that will persist across multiple contracting cycles.

Peterson underscores the cascading risks associated with import dependence:

"We have increasing reliance on imports which leads to higher cost products because of shipping, higher carbon emission intensity, longer lead times. It makes it much more difficult to plan your operations and your usage around a source of salt that maybe is two or three weeks out. This all leads to security supply risks."

Pricing Re-Rating: A Higher Sustainable Floor for Road Salt

Prior to the 2024–2025 supply disruption, contracted de-icing salt prices in Western New York averaged approximately $43 per tonne. Emergency procurement during the crisis saw municipalities paying substantially higher rates. According to William Geary, Erie County's public works commissioner, the county paid approximately $120 per tonne in emergency purchases. As contracting cycles reset for the 2025–2026 winter season, new agreements are being executed at approximately $58 per tonne.

This repricing is embedded in multi-year municipal contracts and represents a structural uplift in baseline revenue assumptions for new production capacity. Atlas Salt's Updated Feasibility Study, released in September 2025, projects an All-In Sustaining Cost of $34.9 per tonne Free on Board at Turf Point. At a contracted price of $58 per tonne, this creates a structural life-of-mine margin of approximately $74.5 per tonne, providing substantial downside protection even in stress-tested scenarios.

Peterson highlights the competitive cost structure:

"The reason for this is that our mine is newer. It's shallower. It's closer to key markets that we can distribute to and that is what allows us to operate this mine inexpensively."

Market Structure: The North American Supply Gap

North America faces a persistent supply deficit of 8 to 10 million tonnes per annum according to Atlas Salt's 2023 Feasibility Study Technical Report. This structural gap is met through imports from Chile, Egypt, and other offshore suppliers, introducing logistical complexity, extended lead times, and elevated carbon intensity into the supply chain.

The deficit is not closing. The American Rock Salt mine, opened in 2001, was the last new salt mine constructed in North America. Since then, aging infrastructure and limited new development have tightened domestic supply. The closure of Cargill's Avery Island salt mine in Louisiana removed 2.5 million tonnes per year of domestic supply. Legacy operations face operational challenges including reserve depletion, rising extraction costs, and environmental constraints.

Peterson provides context for the erosion of domestic supply:

"Since 2001 several aging mines have closed, removing over 2.5 million tons of domestic supply largely due to those cost pressures, environmental concerns and of course reserve depletion which every resource company encounters."

This scarcity of new capacity creates the opportunity for projects like Great Atlantic, which employ modern mine design, shallow-decline access, and streamlined permitting pathways.

Atlas Salt in Context: A New Entrant Aligning With Structural Shifts

Atlas Salt occupies a unique position at the convergence of three critical market forces: a persistent North American supply deficit, an emerging reliability premium in procurement contracts, and a structural repricing of salt from $43 per tonne to $58 per tonne. The Great Atlantic Salt Project is positioned to become the first new salt mine built in North America in nearly 30 years, directly addressing the supply gap while benefiting from the market's revaluation of dependable, domestic production.

Great Atlantic is located on the west coast of Newfoundland and Labrador, approximately 2 kilometers from Turf Point, a deep-water marine port that serves as the location for the planned ship loading conveyor. This proximity provides competitive cost and sustainability advantages. Shipping time from Turf Point to Boston is less than three days, compared to more than 14 days from Chile or Egypt. The strategic Atlantic positioning reduces shipping volatility, lowers carbon emissions per tonne delivered, and enhances supply reliability during peak winter demand periods.

Peterson articulates the strategic value:

"We will displace overseas imports and leverage into the Buy North American trend that we all see."

Asset Fundamentals: Resource Quality & Mining Profile

The Great Atlantic Salt Project is underpinned by Probable Reserves of 95 million tonnes at 95.9 percent sodium chloride purity and an Inferred Resource of 868 million tonnes at 95.2 percent sodium chloride. The deposit averages 200 meters in thickness and exhibits exceptional homogeneity, characteristics that simplify mine planning, reduce dilution, and enhance operational predictability.

Great Atlantic employs a decline-access mine design with entry at approximately 180 meters depth, a significant departure from traditional deep-shaft mines that operate at depths exceeding 600 meters. According to Atlas Salt's 2023 Feasibility Study Technical Report, the Goderich mine operates approximately 600 meters below Lake Huron. Decline access offers lower initial capital expenditure, faster development timelines, reduced ventilation and hoisting costs, and simplified maintenance schedules.

The project is designed as an all-electric operation powered by Newfoundland and Labrador's clean hydropower grid. The mining process requires no chemical reagents, produces no tailings dam, and generates minimal greenhouse gas emissions relative to conventional mining operations. This environmental profile eliminates one of the most significant sources of environmental liability in mining projects, reducing both permitting complexity and long-term closure costs.

Economics: Updated Feasibility Study

Atlas Salt's Updated Feasibility Study, released in September 2025, delivers valuation metrics that position the project within the upper tier of global salt development opportunities. The study reports an after-tax Net Present Value at an 8 percent discount rate of $920 million, representing a 66 percent increase over prior estimates. The after-tax Internal Rate of Return is 21.3 percent, with life-of-mine post-tax cash flow averaging $188 million annually and an after-tax payback period of 4.2 years.

The study projects operating expenditure of $28.2 per tonne shipped and an All-In Sustaining Cost of $34.9 per tonne Free on Board Turf Point. This cost structure provides a structural margin of approximately $74.5 per tonne at current contracted pricing levels of $58 per tonne. The low-cost profile is driven by shallow-decline access, proximity to port infrastructure, elimination of expensive shaft-sinking and hoisting systems, and Newfoundland's low-cost hydropower.

At 4 million tonnes per annum design capacity, Great Atlantic is sufficient to absorb a meaningful portion of North America's 8 to 10 million tonne import deficit without exerting downward pressure on market pricing. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the project maintains positive economics even under stress-tested scenarios.

Peterson quantifies the financial performance:

"We will have over $300 million in annual EBITDA or pre-tax operating cash flow and over $188 million in life of mine average annual free cash flow."

Catalysts & Development Pathway

Atlas Salt has established a Memorandum of Understanding with Scotwood Industries targeting annual off-take volumes of 1.25 to 1.5 million tonnes per annum. The off-take MOU de-risks revenue projections and enhances the project's attractiveness to construction lenders. In parallel, Atlas Salt has secured a $73 million equipment financing Memorandum of Understanding with Sandvik for the provision of mining equipment and engineering support.

The Environmental Assessment for Great Atlantic was released by the Newfoundland and Labrador Environmental Minister in April 2024, with the Updated Feasibility Study incorporating feedback to meet conditions of release. Additional approved plans include the Early Works Development Plan, Environmental Protection Plan, Waste Management Plan, Water Resource Management Plan, Wetland Conservation Plan, Bat Preventative Measures Plan, Gender Diversity Equity & Inclusion Plan, and Benefits Plan.

Endeavour Financial has been engaged for project finance. Key near-term milestones include securing the financing package, obtaining remaining permits, and evaluating potential for additional off-takes and strategic partnerships.

Jurisdictional Advantage: Newfoundland & Labrador Stability

Newfoundland and Labrador was rated the 9th best mining jurisdiction globally in the Fraser Institute's 2025 global mining investment attractiveness ranking. The province has demonstrated institutional expertise in project assessment and approval through its long history of resource development.

Great Atlantic benefits from proximity to the Trans-Canada Highway, a 66-kilovolt electrical substation located 1.4 kilometers from the mine site, and Turf Point port facilities 2 kilometers away. This infrastructure density reduces both capital expenditure and operating risk by minimizing the need for extensive infrastructure development.

Peterson underscores the strategic importance:

"When we're in operations, we'll be North America's first new salt mine built in nearly three decades."

The Investment Thesis for Atlas Salt

• Structural Supply Gap Alignment: Atlas Salt's 4 million tonnes per annum capacity directly targets North America's persistent 8 to 10 million tonnes per annum salt import deficit.
• Pricing Re-Rating: Contracted salt prices structurally reset from $43 per tonne to $58 per tonne, lifting long-term project margins and enhancing revenue predictability.
• Low-Cost Advantage: All-In Sustaining Cost of $34.9 per tonne positions Great Atlantic among global low-cost de-icing salt producers, delivering structural margins of $74.5 per tonne.
• Resource Scale: 95 million tonnes of Probable Reserves plus 868 million tonnes of Inferred Resources underpin multi-decade production with minimal reinvestment risk.
• Logistics Proximity: Newfoundland location enables faster, more reliable shipping to major eastern United States markets, reducing lead times and supply chain volatility.
• Advanced Permitting: Environmental Assessment release and approved community plans reduce development risk ahead of project financing.
• Strategic Partnerships: Early off-take and equipment financing agreements validate market confidence and de-risk revenue and capital expenditure projections.
• Jurisdictional Strength: Newfoundland and Labrador's 9th place Fraser Institute ranking reduces political and operational risk compared to competing jurisdictions.

Why the Market Failure Matters for Investors

The New York salt supply crisis triggered a multi-year transition toward diversified, dependable supply sources, with contracted pricing resetting to levels that reflect the premium value of operational stability. Atlas Salt aligns with this structural shift through production scale, logistics efficiency, industry-leading cost structure, and advanced project readiness.

The company sits at the convergence of several investment themes: supply chain reconfiguration, reliability premiums embedded in essential commodity pricing, environmental alignment, and North American critical infrastructure resilience. For institutional investors, Atlas Salt offers exposure to a newly re-rated sector dynamic at a time when essential mineral supply chains are repricing reliability as a premium feature.

TL;DR

The 2024-2025 New York salt shortage revealed critical vulnerabilities in North America's de-icing supply chain when American Rock Salt failed to meet municipal commitments, forcing emergency purchases at triple contracted rates. This crisis triggered a structural market shift as municipalities diversified suppliers and contract prices reset from $43 to $58 per tonne. Atlas Salt's Great Atlantic project emerges as a compelling investment opportunity, positioned to become North America's first new salt mine in 30 years. With an All-In Sustaining Cost of $34.9 per tonne versus $58 per tonne market pricing, 4 million tonnes per annum capacity, and strategic Newfoundland location enabling sub-3-day shipping to eastern markets, the project directly addresses the continent's persistent 8-10 million tonne annual import deficit while capitalizing on the market's repricing of reliability.

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