Silver Holds Above $60 as Hormuz Hopes Outpace Fed Caution

• Silver rose more than 3% to $59.80 an ounce, its highest level since July 10, as hopes of a Strait of Hormuz de-escalation pushed Brent crude down 5.3% to $79.36 a barrel and WTI down 5.7% to $75.77. 
• Silver extended its rally to $60.95, holding above its 20-day EMA of $59.05 while an RSI of 53.23 indicated buying pressure remained moderate. 
• The Fed kept its target range at 3.50%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote and offered no new forward guidance. 
• Markets cut the implied probability of a September Fed rate hike to 57% on hopes of a Hormuz de-escalation, even as New York Fed President John Williams said further rate increases remain possible if inflation persists. 
• A close below $58.86 shifts the outlook toward $58.35 and $57.48, while a break above $61.88 opens a move toward the $62.91 50-day moving average and the $65-$66 range.

Oil's 5.7% Drop Lifts Silver Above $60 as Treasury Yields Ease

Silver rose more than 3% to $59.80 an ounce, its highest level since July 10. The rally extended into the Asian session, with XAG/USD reaching $60.95, up 1.8% intraday. The rally followed a sharp reversal in energy markets as hopes of a Strait of Hormuz agreement pushed Brent crude down 5.3% to $79.36 a barrel and WTI down 5.7% to $75.77. 

The more than 5% drop in both crude benchmarks pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield to 4.62%-4.64% and the 2-year yield to about 4.20%. Because silver pays no yield, lower real yields reduce its opportunity cost relative to bonds. That decline in yields helped lift silver above $60 despite continued geopolitical uncertainty.

Fed Holds Rates as Mixed Economic Data Keep Silver Supported

The Strait of Hormuz carries almost one-fifth of global energy supply, making any disruption to shipping a direct driver of oil prices. Iran confirmed talks with Oman are continuing, but no agreement to reopen the waterway has been announced. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal could come "as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday," while Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari said negotiations remain underway, leaving geopolitical risk unresolved. 

The Fed kept its target range at 3.50%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote and provided no new policy guidance, even as the ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6 from 53.3 and job openings held at 7.4 million with a 4.4% hiring rate. Stronger manufacturing and a softer labor market leave the policy outlook uncertain, supporting silver as markets reassess the Fed's next move.

Fed Pushes Back on Rate Cuts While Silver Holds Key Technical Levels

Fed officials have not signaled that inflation is fully under control. New York Fed President John Williams said inflation is gradually declining but reaffirmed that the Fed is prepared to raise rates if price pressures persist. Even so, markets reduced the implied probability of a September rate hike to 57% on expectations of a Strait of Hormuz de-escalation. That disconnect between Fed guidance and market pricing leaves silver sensitive to any upside surprise in inflation or labor data.

Bull case: A close above $61.88 confirms a breakout, targeting the $62.91 50-day moving average and the $65-$66 range.

Bear case: A close below $58.86 before August 12 shifts momentum toward $58.35 and then $57.48.

This week's ADP Employment Change and Nonfarm Payrolls reports are the key tests for current rate expectations. Deutsche Bank is targeting 65,000 new jobs and unemployment near 4.2%, making any material deviation a potential catalyst for silver.

Jobs Data Could Decide Whether Silver Breaks Its $3 Trading Range

Silver remains in a $58.86 to $61.88 range, with this week's ADP Employment Change and Nonfarm Payrolls reports as the next key catalysts. Either release could trigger another sharp move after silver's rebound from its July 17 low of $54.77. Deutsche Bank is targeting 65,000 new jobs, up from 57,000 in June, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month over month. 

A result near that forecast would likely keep silver range-bound, while weaker payrolls could strengthen Fed rate-cut expectations and support prices. Stronger payrolls could revive expectations of further tightening and pressure silver. With no confirmed agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the defined trading range remains a more reliable guide than geopolitical headlines.

Watch $61.88 for a Breakout as Jobs Data Tests Silver's Next Move

Silver continues to hold above the $59.58 daily mean, keeping the $58.86 to $61.88 range intact. A close above $61.88 targets the $62.91 50-day moving average and the $65-$66 range, while a break below $58.86 exposes $58.35 and $57.48. This week's ADP Employment Change and Nonfarm Payrolls reports are the next key catalysts, with COMEX settlement prices likely to provide a clearer signal than geopolitical headlines.