Triple Flag Precious Metals - Q4 & FY 2022 Results Summary

Triple Flag Precious Metals is a gold and silver royalty & streaming company with a diversified portfolio of assets providing investors leveraged exposure to precious metals upside.
- 2022 marked Triple Flag's first full year as a public company, witnessing significant progress in operational and strategic priorities.
- The company achieved its sixth consecutive year of growth, recording 84,600 ounces for the year and 25,400 ounces in Q4, both of which are record performances.
- Triple Flag was recognized for its excellence in ESG, ranking fourth out of 114 companies in the global precious metals industry, and was also accredited as a great workplace in Canada.
- Key transactions included the $606 million Mavericks deal, increasing the portfolio to 229 assets with 80% of the NAV coming from 29 cash-generating assets, predominantly in precious metals and majorly situated in Australia and the Americas.
- Entering 2023, Triple Flag is the fourth largest gold-focused streaming and royalty company, with over $600 million available capital, a robust growth outlook, and a strategy to acquire more precious metal streams and royalties.
Triple Flag Delivers Record Results in First Full Year as a Public Company
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. reported strong financial and operating results for the fourth quarter and full year 2022. The results marked the company's first full year as a public entity following its IPO in 2021.
Record Gold Equivalent Ounces in 2022
- Triple Flag produced a record 84,600 gold equivalent ounces (GEO) in 2022, representing its sixth consecutive year of GEO growth.
- Fourth quarter GEO production also hit a new high of 25,400 ounces.
- The growth was driven primarily by the recent acquisition of royalties from Maverix Metals.
Acquisition of Maverix Assets Transforms Portfolio
- In November 2022, Triple Flag acquired a package of royalties and streams from Maverix Metals for $606 million.
- The acquisition expanded Triple Flag's portfolio to 229 assets, with nearly 80% of net asset value tied to 29 cash-generating assets.
- The deal bolsters precious metals exposure to over 90% of the portfolio. It also provides greater geographic diversification, with over 80% of assets located in Australia and the Americas.
- The acquired portfolio is expected to contribute 27,000 GEOs in 2023, representing 27% growth year-over-year.
- Beyond the near-term growth, the assets offer exploration and development upside, with 140,000 GEOs of average potential production identified over the next five years.
Stronger Trading Liquidity and Index Inclusion
- The Maverix transaction significantly enhanced Triple Flag's trading liquidity, with a ten-fold increase observed since closing.
- The company was also added to the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), opening access to new investors.
- In October, Triple Flag was listed on the New York Stock Exchange, marking an important milestone.
ESG Leadership Validated with Sustainalytics Rating
- Triple Flag received an inaugural ESG risk rating from Sustainalytics in Q4 2022.
- With a score of 21.1, Triple Flag ranked 4th out of 114 companies in the global precious metals industry.
- This provides external validation of Triple Flag's leading ESG practices as a financing partner in the mining sector.
Disciplined Growth Strategy Continues in 2023
- Triple Flag maintains an active pipeline of royalty and stream investment opportunities. Potential deal sizes range from several million to several hundred million dollars.
- The company believes streaming and royalties will play an increasingly important role in financing metals needed for the energy transition, including copper and nickel.
- With over $600 million in available capital, Triple Flag is well-positioned to continue executing its disciplined growth strategy in 2023.
Record Financial Results Reflect Growth
- Revenue in Q4 2022 hit a quarterly record of $38.5 million. For the full year, revenue grew 30% to $114.5 million.
- Operating cash margin also reached a new high in Q4 at $33.4 million. Margins expanded to 92% from 90% last year.
- Adjusted net earnings rose to $0.13 per share in Q4 from $0.11 last year. For 2022, adjusted net earnings were $0.35 per share.
- As of December 31, 2022, Triple Flag had $56.3 million in cash and $340 million available on its credit facility.
Dividend Increased for Second Straight Year
- Triple Flag raised its dividend by 5% to US$0.20 per share annually.
- This marks the second consecutive year of dividend increases since becoming a public company.
- Triple Flag's dividend yield of 3.5% is among the highest amongst precious metals royalty peers.
Triple Flag Well-Positioned with Enhanced Portfolio
In summary, Triple Flag enters 2023 with an enlarged portfolio, robust growth outlook, expanded trading liquidity, industry-leading ESG credentials and a strong financial position. With continued access to capital, the company is poised to extend its track record of delivering per-share value growth through acquisitions of precious metals streams and royalties. The transformational Maverix transaction has provided Triple Flag with an enhanced platform to drive significant growth in the year ahead.
The Investment Thesis for Triple Flag Precious Metals
- Strong growth - Triple Flag has demonstrated a track record of growing revenue, operating cash flow, and gold equivalent ounce production. The Maverix acquisition provides a clear path for continued growth in 2023 and beyond.
- Precious metals leverage - With over 90% exposure to gold and silver, Triple Flag offers leverage to the upside in precious metals prices. This could benefit investors if inflation concerns persist.
- Royalty business model - The royalty/streaming model provides exposure to commodity upside with limited operating risks. Triple Flag's portfolio is diversified across 229 assets which further limits risk.
- ESG leadership - Triple Flag's top ESG ratings validate its commitment to responsible mining investment. This could increasingly appeal to ESG-focused investors.
- Trading liquidity - Greatly improved trading liquidity makes Triple Flag more attractive to institutional investors. Inclusion in ETFs also broadens the investor base.
- Strong balance sheet - With low debt and over $600M in capital, Triple Flag has flexibility to fund further accretive acquisitions.
- Attractive dividend - A 3.5% dividend yield is very competitive among precious metal peers. Dividend increases in the past two years signal a commitment to returning cash to shareholders.
- Valuation - Trading at ~10x operating cash flow, Triple Flag could be considered undervalued relative to royalty company peers. Upside potential if Multiple expands.
Triple Flag Precious Metals offers investors exposure to precious metals growth, while the business fundamentals and financial position suggest continued expansion and dividends in the years ahead. For investors bullish on gold and silver, Triple Flag provides an intriguing royalty/streaming investment opportunity.
Analyst's Notes


