Canada Nickel: A Critical Metals Play for EV Era

• Crawford Nickel Sulphide Project holds the world's second-largest nickel reserve and is targeting construction start by year-end 2026.
• FEED study results improved NPV to US$2.8 billion at an IRR of 17.6%, with initial capital cost held to US$2.0 billion.
• Indonesia now controls 61% of global nickel supply, more than OPEC did at its oil peak in 1973, creating a structural supply risk that benefits non-Indonesian producers.
• Strategic shareholders include Agnico Eagle (10.0%), Samsung SDI (7.2%), and Anglo American (6.3%), signalling institutional conviction.
• The Timmins Nickel District already contains 10.1 million tonnes of Measured and Indicated nickel, with the potential to surpass Sudbury as the world's largest nickel sulphide district.

Why Canada Nickel Could Be One of the Decade's Most Compelling Mining Stories

Global nickel demand is accelerating at a pace that few commodity markets have witnessed in a generation. According to Canada Nickel Company's own analysis of International Nickel Study Group data, nickel demand grew by more than 7% annually in the first four years of this decade, three to four times the growth rate of other base metals  and is forecast to double to more than 5 million tonnes per annum by 2030. Against this backdrop, one Canadian junior miner has assembled what could be the most strategically important non-Indonesian nickel project on earth.

Canada Nickel Company is advancing its Crawford Nickel Sulphide Project in Timmins, Ontario, toward a construction decision by year-end 2026. The project has been referred to Canada's Major Projects Office by the federal government, named to Ontario's new One Project, One Process fast-track framework, and has attracted blue-chip shareholders across the mining and battery supply chain industries. For investors tracking the battery metals megatrend, CNC presents a rare convergence of scale, jurisdiction, and timing.

The Company Behind the Project: Who Is Building Canada Nickel?

Canada Nickel Company was founded to capture the next generation of large-scale nickel supply, and it has done so with unusual speed. The Crawford Project, located near Timmins in the Abitibi region of Ontario, sits in one of Canada's most established and infrastructure-rich mining camps, with roads, power, water, and rail access already in place. The project is 100% owned by Canada Nickel and benefits from a skilled local workforce and proximity to existing producing mines.

The company is led by CEO Mark Selby, a recognised nickel market expert and former CEO of Royal Nickel Corporation, supported by a management team with deep experience across project finance, sustainability, and mine construction. CFO Wendy Kaufman has completed a US$4 billion project finance for Cobre Panama. VP Projects Desmond Tranquilla brings over 32 years of major capital project experience, including the Detour Gold project delivered on time and on budget.

World-Class Ore Body: The Numbers That Matter to Your Portfolio

Crawford is not simply a large nickel deposit. It is the world's second-largest nickel reserve by proven and probable contained metal, behind only Norilsk in Russia. The project's Bankable Feasibility Study, published in October 2023 and updated through Front End Engineering and Design in March 2025, underpins a robust financial case that stands out even among major global mining projects.

The FEED results show a post-tax NPV at an 8% discount rate of US$2.8 billion, with an IRR of 17.6%  improvements of more than US$300 million and 0.5% respectively over the original feasibility study. Including expected Carbon Capture and Storage tax credits, the NPV rises to US$2.9 billion and the IRR to 18.9%. The initial capital cost was held to just US$2.0 billion through mine plan re-sequencing that reduced pre-stripping by 30% and accelerated delivery of higher-value East Zone ore.

Over its 41-year mine life, Crawford is projected to produce an average of 38,000 tonnes of nickel annually, peaking at 48,000 tonnes per annum during the 27-year Phase II production period. Life-of-mine average all-in sustaining costs are projected at US$1.54 per pound, placing Crawford firmly in the first quartile of global nickel producers by cost. Average annual EBITDA during peak production is projected at US$811 million, with free cash flow of US$546 million per year.

The Supply Shock No One Is Talking About: Why Indonesia Changes Everything

Perhaps the most compelling near-term catalyst for Canada Nickel investors is a structural shift in the global nickel supply picture. Indonesia today controls approximately 61% of global nickel supply, a concentration that exceeds what OPEC controlled at its peak in 1973, when Persian Gulf and other OPEC members together commanded 54% of oil. Canada Nickel's management has coined the term "ONEC" to describe this reality, and the parallel to oil's most disruptive era is not accidental.

Indonesia has taken a sequence of supply-management measures that are already tightening the market. Mining licenses have been cut from three years to one year. Royalty rates now tier upward at nickel prices of US$18,000, US$21,000, US$24,000, and US$31,000 per tonne. New NPI smelters and HPAL operations have been banned. In early 2026, PT Vale and Eramet both announced issues with mine quotas.

Canada Nickel's CEO Mark Selby noted:

"Nickel prices increased by nearly $2/lb ($4,500/tonne) as Indonesia signals serious approach to managing supply."

Ottawa and Queen's Park Are On Board: Why Government Support Is a Game-Changer

Canada Nickel's Crawford Project has received formal government recognition at both the federal and provincial levels, a significant de-risking milestone that many mining developers never achieve.

Prime Minister Mark Carney's government referred Crawford to the Major Projects Office, with the Prime Minister stating:

"Canada Nickel's Crawford Project will anchor Canada's global leadership in clean industrial materials. Crawford will set the global standard for the future of responsible mining."

These are not boilerplate endorsements; they translate directly into accelerated permitting timelines and access to government financing programmes.

At the provincial level, Ontario Minister of Energy and Mines Stephen Lecce named Crawford to the new One Project, One Process framework.

The minister stated:

"In 2026, our government is going full-tilt to unlock one of the world's largest nickel deposits that will supercharge our economy and help end China's critical mineral dominance."

The combination of federal and provincial fast-tracking materially reduces the permitting risk that has historically plagued Canadian mining projects of this scale.

The Financing Roadmap: How Crawford Gets Built

The company is targeting receipt of federal permits and a full financing package in 2026, with a construction start by year-end and first production targeted for year-end 2028. The total funding package of approximately US$2.5 billion is designed to cover US$2.0 billion in capital expenditures, a cost overrun facility, and pre-cash flow financing costs. The structure is well advanced, with multiple components already secured in letter-of-intent form.

On the equity side, US$1.0 billion is targeted through C$600 million in Investment Tax Credits covering Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage and Clean Technology Manufacturing, US$100 million from the exercise of Samsung SDI's offtake option, and US$100 to US$300 million from additional government funding spanning Canadian federal and provincial programmes as well as G7 sources including France, Germany, Japan, and Korea. On the debt side, US$1.5 billion is anchored by a US$500 million Export Development Canada Letter of Interest and a C$500 million support letter from a leading Canadian financing institution.

Beyond Crawford: The District That Could Rewrite the Nickel Map

While Crawford is the flagship, Canada Nickel has assembled what may prove to be the world's largest nickel sulphide district. The Timmins Nickel District encompasses more than 20 ultramafic targets with a combined geophysical footprint of 42 square kilometres, which is 25 times the 1.6 square kilometre footprint at Crawford itself. Eight resource estimates have now been published across the district, with a ninth at the Nesbitt property expected in Q1 2026.

The combined district resource stands at 10.1 million tonnes of Measured and Indicated nickel and 12.5 million tonnes of Inferred nickel. For context, the Sudbury nickel district has an estimated endowment of approximately 19 million tonnes of contained nickel, one of the most significant benchmarks in mining history. The Timmins district is already more than halfway to that benchmark, with exploration still at an early stage across properties including Reid, Mann West, Midlothian, Mann Central, Deloro, Texmont, and Bannockburn. The Reid property alone carries a target footprint more than twice the size of Crawford and its current resource covers only 55% of that footprint.

Zero Carbon Vision: The ESG Edge That Unlocks Institutional Capital

Canada Nickel is pursuing three separate pathways for carbon sequestration at Crawford, supporting the company's stated vision for a Zero-Carbon Industrial Cluster in Timmins. The first pathway, IPT Carbonation, utilises tailings directly from the mineral processing circuit and conditions them with CO2, with the latest testwork demonstrating potential to store 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 annually. The second pathway involves a partnership with Australia-based NetCarb, whose technology has the potential to increase Crawford's annual carbon storage capacity to between 10 and 15 million tonnes, representing more than 500 million tonnes of lifetime CO2 sequestration capacity at Crawford alone.

The third pathway is a partnership with the University of Texas at Austin and the US Department of Energy's ARPA-E programme, focused on CO2-to-rock mineralisation that is anticipated to begin within hours of injection, with most CO2 turning to solid rock within six months. Together, these three pathways are expected to qualify a portion of Crawford's capital expenditures for Canada's 50% CCUS Investment Tax Credit through 2030 and 25% through 2040.

"Canada Nickel has three separate pathways for carbon sequestration, which further supports the Company's vision for a Zero-Carbon Industrial Cluster in Timmins."

The Investment Thesis for Canada Nickel Company

• Buy the gap between market cap and NAV: Crawford's US$2.8 billion after-tax NPV implies the stock trades at a fraction of intrinsic value at current prices, offering significant re-rating potential upon permitting and financing milestones.
• Add exposure ahead of Indonesian supply curtailments: As Indonesia tightens mining quotas in 2026, non-Indonesian nickel projects in stable jurisdictions command an increasing premium, and investors should consider accumulating CNC before permit receipt later this year.
• Monitor the Samsung SDI offtake trigger: Exercise of Samsung SDI's US$100 million offtake option would be both a financial and commercial validation event and a potential near-term catalyst for the stock.
• Consider the district optionality as a free call option: The Timmins Nickel District's 22.6 million combined Measured, Indicated, and Inferred nickel tonnes sit largely unpriced in the current market cap, representing substantial embedded upside.
• Watch the EV battery recycling megatrend for demand floor support: As the global EV battery recycling market grows toward an estimated US$87 billion by 2032, the long-term demand floor for nickel continues to rise, supporting project economics throughout Crawford's 41-year mine life.
• Diversify into mid-cap nickel developers if prices sustain above US$18,000 per tonne: At that price level, Crawford's Phase II economics improve substantially and project financing becomes materially easier to execute.

What Investors Should Know Before They Decide

Canada Nickel Company occupies an increasingly rare position in the global mining landscape: a large-scale, low-cost, politically de-risked nickel sulphide developer in a tier-one jurisdiction, advancing toward construction at precisely the moment when the structural supply deficit in nickel is becoming undeniable. With Indonesian supply management accelerating, government support formalised at both federal and provincial levels, and a financing package taking shape, the key milestones of 2026  permit receipt, full project financing, and construction start, represent genuine re-rating events for the stock.

The combination of Crawford's world-class economics, the Timmins district's exploration upside, and the carbon sequestration potential through three separate technological pathways creates a multi-dimensional investment case that extends well beyond a single mine. For investors seeking leveraged exposure to the EV battery metals supply chain from a stable, transparent jurisdiction, Canada Nickel Company warrants serious consideration.

TL;DR

‍Canada Nickel's Crawford Project is the world's second-largest nickel reserve, targeting construction by year-end 2026, with a US$2.8B NPV, strong government backing, and a structural tailwind from Indonesian supply discipline.

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