Canada Nickel: A Critical Minerals Giant in the Making

• Crawford is the world's second-largest nickel reserve, with a FEED-confirmed after-tax NPV of US$2.8 billion and an IRR of 17.6%.
• Strategic shareholders including Agnico Eagle (10.0%), Samsung SDI (7.2%), and Anglo American (6.3%) have already committed capital.
• Indonesia produced 61.3% of global mined nickel in 2024, per NRCan, creating a single-country supply concentration that now exceeds OPEC's oil peak dominance of 1973.
• The Timmins Nickel District holds 10.1 million tonnes of Measured and Indicated nickel across eight published resources, approaching the total endowment of the Sudbury basin.
• Construction is targeted by year-end 2026, with first production expected by year-end 2028.

Why Nickel Is Back in Focus for Serious Investors

For much of the past two years, nickel has been the most beaten-down metal in the base metals complex. According to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG), the global nickel market recorded a surplus of 179,000 tonnes in 2024, with primary production reaching 3.526 million tonnes against usage of 3.347 million tonnes. The INSG's April 2025 meetings projected the surplus to widen further to 198,000 tonnes in 2025 as production climbs to 3.735 million tonnes. That oversupply narrative, however, is beginning to collide with a new supply-side reality.

Indonesia, which now accounts for 61.3% of global nickel mine production according to NRCan's January 2026 data, has begun aggressively managing output. The country has cut mining license terms, introduced tiered royalty structures, banned new smelter approvals, and imposed heavy fines for forestry violations. At the same time, the IEA's Global EV Outlook 2025 warns that:

"low prices could discourage future investments and might cause supply shortages for lithium and nickel by 2030,"

a structural risk that is beginning to reshape how institutional investors are pricing long-dated nickel projects.

This is the market backdrop against which Canada Nickel Company (TSX-V: CNC) is advancing its Crawford Nickel Sulphide Project toward a construction decision. Canada Nickel CEO Mark Selby has framed the moment plainly in company materials: "Nickel is entering a new era in 2026 driven by Indonesian supply discipline," describing Indonesia as an "ONEC, a one-country OPEC of nickel." For investors looking for exposure to critical minerals supply chain security outside the Indonesia-China axis, Canada Nickel represents one of the few large-scale, near-construction opportunities in a tier-one jurisdiction.

What Canada Nickel Actually Owns: Scale That Matters

Crawford is not a junior exploration story. The project holds 1,715 million tonnes of Proven and Probable reserves grading 0.22% nickel, making it the world's second-largest nickel reserve by contained metal, behind only Russia's Norilsk, according to Wood Mackenzie's Nickel Cost Service data cited in the company's filings. Over a 41-year mine life, Crawford is designed to produce an average of 38,000 tonnes of nickel per year, alongside cobalt, platinum group metals, iron, and chromium.

The Bankable Feasibility Study, completed in October 2023, outlined a US$1.9 billion initial capital cost, a life-of-mine net C1 cash cost of US$0.39 per pound, and an after-tax NPV of US$2.5 billion. Front End Engineering and Design work completed in March 2025 strengthened those numbers: NPV rose to US$2.8 billion and IRR improved to 17.6%. Including Carbon Capture and Storage tax credits, the IRR reaches 18.9% and NPV climbs to US$2.9 billion.

"Crawford will set the global standard for the future of responsible mining," Prime Minister Mark Carney stated when the project was referred to Canada's federal Major Projects Office. The prime ministerial endorsement reflects the scale of what Canada Nickel has assembled: a project that the company describes as expected to be "the 3rd largest nickel sulphide operation globally" based on bankable feasibility study production figures compared against Wood Mackenzie's global operations data.

The Indonesian Supply Shock: What It Means for Your Portfolio

Indonesia's dominance of global nickel supply is now the defining structural feature of the market. NRCan data published in January 2026 confirms that Indonesia produced 61.3% of global mined nickel in 2024, while the Philippines contributed 9.2%, meaning the two countries together account for approximately 70.5% of world mine output. Canada Nickel's investor materials draw a direct historical comparison: at OPEC's 1973 peak, Persian Gulf nations controlled 37% of global oil supply, a concentration that is dwarfed by Indonesia's current position, per U.S. Energy Information Administration data cited by the company.

Jakarta has not been passive about this position. The Indonesian government reduced mining license terms from three years to one year, introduced tiered royalty rates at nickel price thresholds of US$18,000, US$21,000, US$24,000, and US$31,000 per tonne, banned new nickel pig iron smelters and High Pressure Acid Leach operations, and imposed fines of US$600,000 per hectare for forestry violations. The INSG's October 2025 press release confirmed that Indonesia had "intensified efforts to more strictly control its mining sector, including delaying the issuance of mining permits." In early 2026, both PT Vale and Eramet reported issues with mine quotas.

Canada Nickel's investor deck states that:

"Further ore supply limitations, combined with declining grades, should support higher price levels,"

contextualizing why a company with 1,715 million tonnes of reserves in Canada is attracting the attention of blue-chip strategic investors. The company's positioning outside the Indonesian supply ecosystem is, by design, its central investment proposition.

Government Backing and the Road to Construction

Crawford has received an unusual level of political recognition. Beyond federal referral to the Major Projects Office, the Province of Ontario named Crawford to its new "One Project, One Process" framework, designed to streamline permitting for critical mineral projects. The Environmental Impact Statement was filed in November 2024, and the company is targeting receipt of federal permits and a full financing package in 2026, with a construction start by year-end 2026.

The funding package is structured at US$2.5 billion, comprising US$1.0 billion in equity and US$1.5 billion in debt. The equity component includes US$600 million in federal Investment Tax Credits covering the Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage and Clean Technology Manufacturing programs, US$100 million from the exercise of Samsung SDI's offtake option, and US$100 to 300 million from federal, provincial, and international government programs including the Canadian Minerals Infrastructure Fund, Canada Growth Fund, and Ontario Critical Mineral Processing Fund. The debt component is anchored by a US$500 million Letter of Interest from Export Development Canada and a C$500 million support letter from a leading Canadian financial institution.

Ontario's Minister of Energy and Mines, Stephen Lecce, captured the political urgency in the company's investor materials: "In 2026, our government is going full-tilt to unlock one of the world's largest nickel deposits that will supercharge our economy and help end China's critical mineral dominance." That level of senior government commitment, from both Ottawa and Queen's Park, materially reduces the permitting execution risk that has historically plagued large-scale Canadian mining projects.

The Battery Demand Picture: Verified and Corrected

The long-term demand case for nickel is real, though investors should note that near-term dynamics remain complex. According to the IEA's Global EV Outlook 2024, battery demand for nickel reached almost 370,000 tonnes in 2023, up nearly 30% compared to 2022, representing over 10% of total global nickel demand. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence's Nickel Forecast projects battery nickel demand to reach 1.5 million tonnes by 2030, with batteries accounting for over 50% of nickel demand growth through the end of the decade.

The INSG projects global primary nickel usage to reach 3.537 million tonnes in 2025, rising toward a range of 3.9 to 4.7 million tonnes annually by 2030 depending on battery technology adoption scenarios. The IEA's Global EV Outlook 2025 explicitly cautions that "low prices could discourage future investments and might cause supply shortages for lithium and nickel by 2030," a scenario that directly benefits projects like Crawford that are advancing toward production.

The near-term headwind is real: the shift toward lithium iron phosphate batteries, which do not require nickel, has dampened demand growth versus earlier forecasts. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence notes that "in the medium term, we do expect nickel battery demand growth will be slower than previous estimates" due to higher LFP uptake in entry-level EVs. However, Benchmark also projects nickel-based chemistries will capture 85% of battery cell production capacity outside China by 2030, precisely the market that Crawford's Canadian, low-carbon production profile is designed to serve.

The Timmins District: A Hidden Multiplier for Patient Investors

Crawford is only the beginning of Canada Nickel's asset base. The company has assembled more than 20 ultramafic targets across the Timmins Nickel District, covering 42 square kilometres of geophysical footprint, which is 25 times the 1.6 square kilometre footprint at Crawford. Eight resource estimates have been published, collectively totaling 4.3 billion tonnes grading 0.24% nickel in the Measured and Indicated category, representing 10.1 million tonnes of contained nickel, and 5.4 billion tonnes grading 0.23% nickel in the Inferred category, representing 12.5 million tonnes of contained nickel.

For context, the Sudbury district has an estimated total nickel endowment of 19 million tonnes of contained nickel, per Naldrett and Lightfoot (1993) and Lesher and Thurston (2002), as cited by Canada Nickel in its investor materials. The Timmins District is already approaching that figure through published resources alone, with multiple properties still in early-stage drilling. The Reid property, with a target footprint more than twice the size of Crawford, holds an Indicated Resource of 1.4 million tonnes of nickel and an Inferred Resource of 2.2 million tonnes as of the January 2026 resource estimate, covering only 55% of Reid's total target footprint.

Canada Nickel's own materials describe the district as having "the potential to be the world's largest nickel sulphide district," with 18 properties successfully drilled, 10 of which have a target footprint larger than Crawford, and a 98% success rate in intersecting target mineralization. The company also reported a massive sulphide discovery at its Bannockburn F-Zone grading 3.95% nickel, 0.40% copper, and 0.15% cobalt over 4.0 metres within a broader intersection of 1.61% nickel over 12 metres, a high-grade result pointing to additional deposit types beyond the bulk-tonnage sulphide model that defines Crawford.

The Investment Thesis for Canada Nickel Company

• Buy on verified supply concentration: Indonesia's 61.3% share of global mined nickel per NRCan January 2026 creates structural price support for non-Indonesian producers with near-term timelines.
• Consider accumulating before permit receipt: Federal permit approval expected in 2026 is a defined catalyst that could materially re-rate the stock ahead of a construction decision.
• Monitor the Samsung SDI offtake option: Exercise would inject US$100 million in equity and formally validate Crawford's battery-grade credentials with a major Asian cell maker.
• Track Timmins District resource publications: Each new resource from the 20-plus district properties adds contained nickel tonnage that is currently unpriced in the market capitalization.
• Size positions against construction risk: Crawford is pre-construction, and investors should calibrate exposure to permitting and financing execution risk before increasing position size.
• Watch for IEA supply shortage signals by 2030: The IEA's Global EV Outlook 2025 explicitly flags potential nickel supply shortages by 2030 if investment is not sustained, a catalyst that could accelerate Crawford's financing timeline.

Key Takeaways and What They Mean for Your Investment Decision

Canada Nickel Company sits at the intersection of three verified structural trends: a tightening global nickel supply regime driven by Indonesian policy action confirmed by both INSG and NRCan data, growing long-term battery demand projected by the IEA and Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, and a Canadian government that has explicitly identified Crawford as a national strategic priority. The project's economics, a US$2.8 billion NPV, 17.6% IRR, and life-of-mine net cash costs of US$0.39 per pound, are verified by the company's FEED study and are robust relative to the global cost curve published by Wood Mackenzie. Canada Nickel's own summary of the opportunity is direct: the company is "one of few new sources of potential supply outside Indonesia and China," advancing the world's second-largest nickel reserve toward a construction decision in a jurisdiction where the Prime Minister and the Premier have both publicly committed their governments' support. The near-term risks of a surplus market, LFP adoption, and pre-construction financing remain real, but for investors with a 2028 to 2035 time horizon, the structural setup is compelling.

TL;DR‍

Canada Nickel owns the world's second-largest nickel reserve in Canada, with FEED-confirmed economics of US$2.8 billion NPV, government backing, and blue-chip shareholders, positioned to benefit from Indonesia's supply management and verified IEA projections of potential nickel shortages by 2030.

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