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Marimaca Copper - DFS Ready in Q4, Low-Capex

Marimaca Copper advancing low-risk, low-capex oxide copper project in Chile towards near-term production; strong fundamentals support compelling investment opportunity.

  • Marimaca Copper is developing the Marimaca oxide copper project in Northern Chile, focusing on exploration and advancing the project towards production
  • A Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) is expected by the end of 2024, along with permitting submissions to establish a clear timeline for construction
  • The project has low execution risk due to its shallow open pit, low strip ratio, and good metallurgy in a favorable location; capex is expected to be under $500M
  • The company is building out its team and partnerships to gain credibility and capabilities to move the project into production in the near-term
  • Copper market fundamentals are strong, with supply constraints expected to persist for the next 5-10 years, providing a favorable window for Marimaca to enter production

Marimaca Copper presents a compelling copper development opportunity, as it advances its wholly-owned Marimaca project in Chile towards production. With the global copper market facing persistent supply deficits and growing demand from electrification trends, Marimaca is well-positioned to bring its low-risk, low-capex project online in the near-term to capitalize on a sustained period of elevated copper prices.

Marimaca Project Overview

The Marimaca project is a shallow, open-pit oxide copper deposit located in northern Chile, a world-class mining jurisdiction. The project boasts low execution risk due to several key attributes:

  • Shallow depth of mineralization enabling a low strip ratio
  • Straightforward metallurgy amenable to conventional processing
  • Proximity to key infrastructure including power, ports and skilled labor

Marimaca is currently undertaking a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) on the project, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2024. The study will refine the project's economics, including an updated mineral resource, mining plan, processing design, and capex and opex estimates.

President & CEO Hayden Locke stated, "Our internal objective is this project must be less than $500 million to build, and I believe that is still very much achievable. I hope it would be closer to $400 than to $500 million in upfront capex, making us the industry-leading copper development play for a 50,000 tonne per annum copper producer."

The modest capex requirements position Marimaca as one of the few copper projects capable of being financed and developed by a junior company in the near term. Marimaca is actively engaging with a range of funding partners to secure the necessary capital to advance the project once the DFS is completed.

Interview with Hayden Locke, President & CEO of Marimaca Copper

Path to Production

In parallel with the DFS, Marimaca is advancing the project's environmental and construction permitting processes. The company expects to submit permit applications in mid-2024, which will establish a clear timeline for the start of construction and production. Marimaca is taking a proactive and thorough approach to permitting to minimize any potential delays.

Locke commented, "We've increased the amount of work we've done to analyze this and develop the strategy for how we would permit it. Our view is you have to be exceptionally well prepared and create more data and reasons why this project will not be an environmental or social hazard."

To further enhance its execution credibility, Marimaca is building out its internal owner's team and engaging with top-tier partners with proven track records of successful project delivery in the region. The company has partnered with Ausenco for the DFS and engineering work - a firm with a strong reputation for delivering projects like the Mantoverde Development Project on time and budget.

Locke noted, "A large part of our strategy is getting the right people and partners in to stand up and say 'this is a group that has the credibility to take this through to production'."

Resource Upside Potential

While Marimaca's flagship project is the focus for near-term development, the company also sees compelling exploration upside potential across its broader property package. Targets include:

  • Marimaca - Potential to extend the resource through additional infill and extension drilling
  • Sierra de Medina - Potential for a large-scale discovery similar in size to regional deposits like Mantos Blancos or El Abra
  • Cindy - Shallow oxide mineralization could extend Marimaca's mine life

Marimaca plans to continue low-cost exploration in parallel with project development to enhance the overall value proposition further. Locke stated, "We proceed for relatively little dollars relative to what we're spending on the project for the potential to improve the value of the whole Marimaca portfolio materially."

Copper Market Outlook

The copper market is expected to face persistent supply deficits in the coming years due to a combination of declining grades, limited new development projects, and growing demand related to global electrification and decarbonization trends.

Locke explained, "The challenge is there are plenty of projects in the pipeline, but nobody is willing to greenlight them at this copper price. Even when the price goes meaningfully higher and projects get greenlit, it will still be several years before many of these operations reach first production."

This supply-constrained dynamic is expected to support strong copper prices in the medium to long-term. Marimaca is one of the few projects with the potential to be approved and built in the next 5 years, positioning it to deliver its first production in a robust pricing environment.

Marimaca Copper presents a compelling investment opportunity due to its near-term production potential, robust economics, exploration upside, and exposure to attractive long-term copper fundamentals. With a DFS expected by year-end and permitting to follow, the company is well-positioned to bring the Marimaca project into production in the 2025-2026 timeframe to capitalize on a supply-constrained, high-priced copper market. Investors should monitor upcoming catalysts, including the DFS, permitting submissions, exploration results and potential strategic deals as key value drivers for the stock.

Investment Thesis for Marimaca Copper

  • Near-term production potential: DFS expected by Q4 2024, permitting to follow, positions Marimaca as one of few projects capable of achieving production by 2025-2026
  • Robust project economics: Low capex (<$500M), low operating costs, and favorable geometry support strong returns even at conservative copper prices
  • Exploration upside: Potential to expand the resource base and mine life through exploration at Marimaca and surrounding targets
  • Proven leadership: Experienced management team with a track record of project delivery and value creation
  • Attractive copper market fundamentals: Persistent supply deficits and growing demand from electrification are expected to support strong long-term copper prices

Catalysts to watch

  • Completion of DFS in Q4 2024
  • Submission of environmental and construction permits in mid-2024
  • Exploration results from Marimaca and regional targets
  • Partnership, financing or strategic investment agreements

The global copper market is expected to face persistent supply deficits in the coming years, driven by a combination of grade declines at existing operations, a lack of new development projects, and growing demand from global electrification trends.

Copper demand growth is expected to be driven primarily by the infrastructure requirements of the clean energy transition, including renewable power generation, energy storage, transmission and distribution, and electric vehicles. Per Marimaca's CEO Hayden Locke, "China's demand for copper is at record highs...China is the global leader in investment in renewable energy generation. Last year saw 150% growth in renewable energy investment. They are going aggressively because they realize the transmission grid is not yet capable of delivering the amount of energy required for this transition."

On the supply side, a limited number of new copper projects are in the near-term development pipeline. Even as copper prices rise, companies are hesitant to sanction the multi-billion dollar investments required to bring new production online. This fundamental supply-demand imbalance is expected to support a structural bull market for copper prices in the medium to long term.

As Locke summarized, "Copper is, in my view, one of the best setups that I've seen for a commodity. The next 5 to 10 years will be a window where there will be pretty spectacular commodity price improvement. Very few new copper projects are positioned to take advantage and transition from a developer into a producer during that window."

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