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Revival Gold's $750M Mercur Project Targets Early 2028 Construction Start

Revival Gold fast-tracks Utah Mercur project for 100K oz/year by 2028, trading at 0.15x NAV with potential 5x upside as near-term gold producer.

  • Revival Gold is prioritizing Mercur project in Utah over Beartrack Arnett due to faster 2-year permitting timeline on private land, targeting 100,000 oz/year production by early 2028
  • Planning 13,000 meters of drilling (10,000m RC, 3,000m core) to convert 40% of inferred resources to measured/indicated categories while exploring expansion opportunities
  • Trading at 0.15x price-to-NAV ratio with $750M NAV at $3,000 gold for Mercur alone, representing potential 5x upside as company moves toward production
  • Board includes former executives from Hecla, Eldorado, and other major miners, with proven track record of delivering projects on time and budget
  • Combined 6 million ounce resource base across two projects offers pathway to 160,000+ oz/year production without requiring external acquisitions

Revival Gold (TSXV:RVG) is positioning itself as a compelling near-term gold producer by fast-tracking development of its Mercur project in Utah while maintaining a strategic focus on its larger Beatrack Arnett asset in Idaho. In a recent interview, CEO Hugh Agro outlined the company's pathway to production and the factors driving their current strategy in a favorable gold price environment.

Strategic Prioritization of Mercur Project

Revival Gold's decision to prioritize Mercur represents a calculated response to current market conditions and regulatory advantages. The Utah-based project sits on private land, offering significant permitting advantages over traditional mining projects on federal lands. 

"We're fast-tracking Mercur because it is on private land, it will permit faster than Beartrack Arnett." 

Agro emphasized that this strategic choice doesn't diminish the value of their Idaho asset. The Mercur project targets production of approximately 100,000 ounces annually through open-pit heap leach operations. The company has completed a Preliminary Assessment (PA) and is now advancing toward a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS), with construction targeted for early 2028 following a two-year permitting process.

The project benefits from existing infrastructure proximity to a town of 40,000 people, eliminating the need for worker camps or fly-in/fly-out operations. 

"We've got roads, so we can get immediate access to the project area. We've got an office location. We're set up to be able to start work relatively quickly."

Comprehensive Resource Development Program

Revival Gold has commenced an aggressive 13,000-meter drilling program consisting of 10,000 meters of reverse circulation drilling and 3,000 meters of core drilling. The program serves multiple objectives, with resource conversion being the primary focus. Currently, approximately 40% of the Mercur resource sits in the inferred category, requiring conversion to measured and indicated resources for the PFS.

"We've got about 40% of our resource in the inferred category, so we'll want to convert that to measured and indicated." 

The program also includes expansion drilling in the North and South Mercur area, along with potential deeper exploration at West Mercur.

The Mercur deposit represents a Carlin-type system, historically significant as the first such system identified in the United States. These systems typically offer both surface and underground mining potential, as demonstrated by successful operations in Nevada. Historical artisanal mining in the area produced approximately one million ounces at seven grams per ton, indicating the presence of higher-grade zones within the system.

Metallurgical Optimization & Technical Risk Reduction

A key focus for Revival Gold involves optimizing metallurgical recoveries through expanded testing programs. The current PEA assumes 75% recovery rates from heap leach processing, but recent column tests achieved 84% recovery rates. 

"We in the PA have a metallurgical recovery of average 75% from the heap leach process... but the data behind that includes the five column tests we did last year which had recoveries in the average of 84%."

The company is examining trade-offs between crushing costs and recovery rates, potentially moving from half-inch to two-inch crush sizes to reduce operating costs while maintaining economic viability. This optimization work forms part of the broader risk reduction strategy as Revival Gold advances toward production decisions.

The processing approach remains relatively straightforward, utilizing conventional ADR (Adsorption, Desorption, Recovery) technology with three-stage crushing and no agglomeration requirements. This technical simplicity reduces both capital requirements and operational complexity compared to more sophisticated processing methods.

Interview with President & CEO, Hugh Agro

Financial Metrics & Valuation Framework

Revival Gold's valuation proposition centers on significant net asset value relative to current market capitalization. The Mercur project alone carries a $750 million NAV at $3,000 gold, representing substantial value for a company with approximately one-tenth that market capitalization. 

The CEO advocates for price-to-NAV analysis rather than traditional dollars-per-ounce metrics for companies at Revival Gold's development stage. Currently trading at 0.15x price-to-underlying NAV, the company offers substantial upside potential as it advances toward production. 

"Typically for companies like ours, we go through a stage of increasing price-to-underlying net asset value from somewhere as low as where we are today, to perhaps as high as 60 to 80 cents on the dollar, once we're in production." 

This valuation framework suggests potential 5x returns as the company executes its development strategy, assuming successful navigation of permitting, construction, and production ramp-up phases.

Multi-Asset Platform Strategy

Beyond Mercur, Revival Gold maintains a broader strategic vision encompassing both Utah and Idaho assets. The Beartrack Arnett project in Idaho represents a 4.6 million ounce resource with potential for additional 2-3 million ounces through further exploration. The first phase heap leach operation at Beartrack Arnett targets 65,000 ounces annually, creating a combined production profile of approximately 160,000 ounces per year across both projects. Regarding the combined asset base, Agro noted

"That's about half a billion dollars of NAV at $2,175 gold. It's about $1.2 billion worth of NAV at $3,000 gold." 

This multi-asset approach provides diversification while maintaining focus on similar heap leach technologies and Western United States geography. The organic growth potential eliminates the need for external acquisitions, with only 2.5 million of the company's 6 million total ounce resource base required for initial development phases. This approach provides optionality for future expansion while maintaining capital efficiency in the near term.

Management Team & Execution Capability

Revival Gold's management and board combine extensive mining industry experience with specific expertise in heap leach operations and project development. The team includes former executives from major mining companies including Hecla, Eldorado, and Hudbay, providing both technical and operational expertise relevant to the company's asset base.

Board members bring particular expertise in Western United States mining operations, with direct experience in similar geological and operational environments. 

"These are gentlemen who've done it before and give us a lot of guidance and a lot of input as we think about the technical aspects of our projects."

The management team's track record includes delivering gold from Beartrack Arnett at approximately $6 per ounce discovery cost and maintaining overall portfolio costs below $10 per ounce. This execution capability becomes increasingly important as the company advances toward construction and production phases.

Market Positioning & Strategic Interest

Revival Gold reports significant corporate and strategic investor interest, driven by both asset quality and management execution capability. The company maintains an active data room process and conducts site visits for potential partners and investors, indicating serious evaluation by industry participants.

"A lot of the corporate and strategic investor interest in Revival Gold right now centers on the fact that this is a team that's proven it can deliver." 

Agro emphasizes the importance of execution track record in attracting strategic partnerships and financing. The company's positioning in the Western United States provides additional strategic value, particularly given current policy emphasis on domestic mineral production and supply chain security. While immediate regulatory changes provide limited direct benefit to Mercur's private land status, the broader policy environment supports domestic mining development.

The Investment Thesis for Revival Gold

  • Near-term Production Catalyst: Clear pathway to 100,000 oz/year production by early 2028 through fast-track Mercur development, with simplified permitting on private land reducing execution risk
  • Compelling Valuation Metrics: Trading at 0.15x price-to-NAV with $750M NAV for Mercur alone, offering potential 5x upside as company advances toward production based on historical developer valuations
  • Proven Management Execution: Board and management team with demonstrated track record of delivering projects on time and budget, including $6/oz discovery costs at Beartrack Arnett
  • Organic Growth Platform: 6 million ounce resource base across two complementary projects provides expansion optionality without requiring external acquisitions or geographic diversification
  • Technical De-risking Program: Active 13,000-meter drilling campaign focused on resource conversion and metallurgical optimization, addressing key development risks ahead of production decisions
  • Favorable Operational Profile: Heap leach processing with existing infrastructure proximity reduces both capital requirements and operational complexity compared to conventional mining approaches
  • Leverage to Gold Price Environment: Every 1,000 shares represents approximately 30 ounces of gold in ground, providing both commodity price exposure and operational leverage through development progression

Macro Thematic Analysis

The current gold price environment reflects a fundamental shift in global monetary dynamics, driven primarily by central bank diversification away from US dollar reserves. Central banks have maintained a consistent gold purchasing program for approximately 15 years, with gold recently surpassing the euro as the second most popular store of value for central banks globally. This structural demand shift supports higher gold prices independent of traditional investment flows or industrial demand.

The underlying driver stems from concerns about US fiscal sustainability and dollar weaponization in international relations. With US debt approaching $37 trillion, central banks increasingly view gold as a more reliable store of value than traditional fiat currencies. This trend appears structural rather than cyclical, given the fundamental issues driving central bank behavior remain unresolved.

For gold mining companies, this environment provides both commodity price support and improved project economics. Higher gold prices expand margins for heap leach operations while reducing the economic threshold for marginal resources. Revival Gold benefits from this dynamic through both improved project economics at Mercur and enhanced value for its broader resource base across both Utah and Idaho assets.

The central bank buying trend also provides price stability during market volatility, reducing the commodity price risk traditionally associated with mining investments. This stability enables more confident capital allocation for development-stage companies like Revival Gold, particularly for projects with relatively modest capital requirements and straightforward processing approaches.

"My sense is that it's more to do with the erosion of the US dollar as a central store of value, a globally recognized store of value. And we're seeing it in what central banks are choosing to do with their holdings. They're choosing to buy gold and move away from the US dollar."

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