A 50% Plant Expansion Puts Mineros' Next Ounces Ahead of Porvenir

• Management says Mineros is expanding processing capacity at its Nicaraguan operation by 50% during 2026, to about 2,500 tons per day.
• Management says roughly 11,000 ounces of already-mined material were standing in surface stockpiles awaiting processing at the end of the first quarter of 2026.
• Nicaraguan gold production reached 75,098 ounces in the first half of 2026, up from 64,047 ounces a year earlier.
• Around 80% of Nicaraguan ore is sourced from the Bonanza Mining Partnership (BMP) at gold-indexed prices, so all-in sustaining costs (AISC) move with the gold price.
• The company is targeting a construction decision on the Porvenir project in early 2027, contingent on environmental approvals before the end of 2026.

The Constraint That Capped the Owned Mines

The operating changes now visible at Mineros (TSX: MSA | BVC: MINEROS | OTCQX: MNSAF) trace back to a change in ownership, not a change in orebody. In 2025, Sun Valley Investments became a major shareholder, which the company elsewhere describes as a controlling position, bringing a new management team, new technical leadership, and a new strategy to a company founded in Medellín, Colombia, in 1974 and listed on the TSX only in 2021. The assets themselves are far older: the Nicaraguan gold district began producing in the 1880s, alluvial gold mining began in Nechí, Colombia, in the 1890s, and Hemco was acquired in 2013. Mineros produced 222,000 gold-equivalent ounces in 2025 from its producing operations in Colombia and Nicaragua, and management describes the company as one most North American investors are encountering for the first time.

What the incoming team found in Nicaragua was a ceiling set by the processing plant. The company's own Nicaraguan mines, Panamá and Pioneer, were the assets that were ceiling-bound. Management says the prior response was to instruct those mines to slow down and take it easy, setting a plan below the previous year's output instead of expanding the plant. Under the new team, the instruction reversed: the mines were told to produce as much as they could and disregard the processing constraint. Management says the cash cost at the two owned mines, previously close to US$3,000 per ounce, came in at US$1,200 per ounce in the first quarter of 2026. 

President and Chief Executive Officer of Mineros, Daniel Henao, dates the operating changes to the current period rather than to a plan: 

"These are not things that will happen in a year or even in 6 months. These are things that are happening right now."

The claim is testable against the plant, which is where the constraint physically sits.

Processing Capacity & the Stockpile It Releases

The plant behind that constraint serves a large and long-established district. The Hemco Property in Nicaragua lies about 230 kilometres (km) northeast of Managua, across a consolidated land position of roughly 458,932 hectares (ha) with roads, power, processing, and community presence already in place, and the district has produced approximately 8 million ounces of gold, 5 million ounces of silver, and 305 million pounds of copper since 1880. Nicaraguan proven and probable reserves stand at approximately 861,000 ounces across Panamá, Pioneer, and Porvenir, with a further 497,000 ounces of measured and indicated resources exclusive of reserves. Management says processing capacity will be expanded by 50% in 2026 to about 2,500 tons per day, though the company's 2026 guidance disclosure includes no throughput figure, and management's statements are the only account of it.

Because the mines ran ahead of the plant, material accumulated on the surface. Management says roughly 11,000 ounces of mined material were standing in the patios, the surface stockpile yards at the operation, awaiting processing at the end of the first quarter of 2026, and that as capacity is added, the material is expected to become gold, bullion, and cash for reinvestment in growth initiatives the company already owns. Mineros has designated 2026 a year of optimization and quick ounces. The sequence is deliberate: mine first, expand the plant second, process the difference third.

Henao puts a figure on the material standing behind the plant: 

"We have about 11,000 ounces sitting in patios right now waiting to be processed."

An increment drawn from ore already broken, moved, and paid for behaves differently from one drawn from a new mine, because the mining capital and the mining risk have both already been spent.

Ore Supply & Recoveries Across Both Operations

Throughput is not the only lever moving Nicaraguan unit economics, and it is the one that depends on capital. Around 80% of the ore processed at Hemco is bought, not mined, and is supplied by the Bonanza Mining Partnership (BMP) at prices indexed to gold, resulting in variable all-in sustaining costs (AISC) through the gold price cycle. Management says the partnership comprises miners holding rights to operate inside Mineros' concessions under a three-party agreement with the local governments and the company, and that Mineros holds the right to buy the mineral at approximately 40% to 50% of the spot price. Nicaraguan BMP margin guidance for 2026 is 39% to 41%.

Metallurgical recovery is the second lever and requires no capital. Management says gold recoveries are moving from 87% toward beyond 90%, that silver production rose 109%, and silver revenues rose 450% on improved silver recoveries, and that Nicaraguan gold rose 22% in the first quarter of 2026. The published production figures point in the same direction: Nicaraguan gold output reached 75,098 ounces in the first half of 2026, up from 64,047 ounces a year earlier, and silver production reached 310,331 ounces, up from 146,047 ounces. Those are six-month figures against quarterly statements, so they neither confirm nor contradict the recovery percentages. 

Henao widens the list past throughput to the mine plan itself:

"There are many other initiatives around improving grade, for example, having better mine plans, better mining methods, having more controls on dilution."

The same treatment is being prepared for Colombia, which management describes as the next phase of growth. Nechí has produced for more than 100 years, holds proven and probable reserves of approximately 1.24 million ounces against a mine life of about 12 years, recovers gold by gravity with no chemical processing, is powered by Mineros' own hydroelectric plants, and restores 7 to 10 ha for every hectare disturbed. Colombian output was 42,391 ounces in the first half of 2026 against 44,103 ounces a year earlier, and management says Colombian recoveries have already moved from 84% to 87%, that the intention is to push production beyond the 90,000 ounces the operation has been delivering, and that Nicaragua was taken first because management saw more readily available opportunities there.

The Increment Inside the Guidance Year & the 2027 Decision

Production guidance for 2026 is 220,000 to 240,000 gold-equivalent ounces, with 122,000 ounces delivered in the first half, split between 137,000 to 147,000 ounces from Nicaragua and 83,000 to 93,000 ounces from Colombia. The plant expansion is scheduled inside the 2026 guidance year, unlike the growth increments the company presents further out, though the company does not disclose whether its ounces are included in the range. The 2026 capital plan of US$113.7 million is divided into US$51.7 million of growth spending, US$44.7 million of sustaining spending, and US$17.3 million of exploration, with no project-level allocation disclosed for the expansion. Gold-equivalent ounces are calculated as gold ounces produced plus revenue derived from silver ounces sold, divided by the average realized price per ounce of gold sold, so rising silver recoveries feed the guidance figure directly.

Porvenir is the largest increment beyond that range, with a range of 55,000 to 72,000 gold-equivalent ounces, against a short-term organic target of more than 300,000 ounces and a 2030 target of 500,000 ounces. Its 2026 pre-feasibility study gives an after-tax net present value at a 5% discount rate (NPV5%) of US$460 million, an after-tax internal rate of return of 37.9%, payback of 2.0 years, a mine life of about 9 years or more and all-in sustaining costs of US$1,295 per gold-equivalent ounce, on a base case of US$3,150 per ounce for gold, US$45.00 per ounce for silver, US$1.22 per pound for zinc and US$4.72 per pound for copper. Initial capital is US$206.8 million. A separate 20,000-ounce increment attaches to Hemco's Cleopatra and Orpheus. 

Mineros is targeting issuance of the outstanding forest management and industrial water use approvals before the end of 2026 and a construction decision on that capital in early 2027, following a July 22, 2026 site visit by the national and regional environmental authorities and the municipal mayor's office. After an independent review of the updated pre-feasibility study, detailed engineering has already commenced on the project's main components, with the gap analysis conducted by BBA Inc., NCL Ingenieria y Construcción, Mining Plus, and Tanka Engineering. A drilling campaign is underway to reduce geological uncertainty across the first 3 years of the underground mine plan and to support metallurgical test work, and early works covering site accesses, preliminary earthworks and surface platforms are being prepared where permits are already held. Porvenir is a stand-alone underground operation within a district that also hosts Guillermina, Leticia, and San Antonio, none of which carry mineral reserves, and there is no certainty they will advance to a stage that could extend the Porvenir mine life.  

Cost Disclosure & What Has Not Been Published

The operating case depends on figures the company has not published in reconcilable form. Company-level AISC guidance for 2026 is US$2,370 to US$2,470 per ounce of gold against a first-quarter actual of US$2,235. At the property level, two different ranges are published for each operation: Nicaragua appears at both US$2,000 to US$2,100 and US$2,465 to US$2,565 per ounce, and Colombia at both US$1,820 to US$1,920 and US$2,090 to US$2,190 per ounce. Neither pair reconciles, and nothing published resolves them, which leaves the cost-effectiveness of the expansion unquantifiable at the level where it is actually happening.   

The figures central to the operating argument are entirely absent from the published tables. Mineros reports costs at the property level, so no cost or production figure specific to Panamá or Pioneer appears in its disclosure, and the movement at the owned mines rests on management's account alone. The same holds for throughput, recovery percentages, the stockpile figure, and any completion date for the expansion beyond the current year. Property-level AISC did rise year on year, reaching US$2,340 per ounce in Nicaragua in the first quarter of 2026, up from US$1,855 a year earlier, and US$1,945 in Colombia, up from US$1,295, which is the direction a purchased-ore model indexed to a rising gold price would produce.   

Profitability disclosure has the same shape. Revenue in the first quarter of 2026 was US$292 million on 60,785 gold-equivalent ounces at an average realized price of US$4,777 per ounce for gold. Net profit was US$88 million, and liquid assets stood at US$217 million in cash and gold-backed assets. There is no half-year income statement to place beside the half-year production figures, so the margin effect of the expansion cannot yet be measured from the company's own numbers. The next reporting period supplies that measurement, and for now, the nearest increment is supported by an account from management and by production figures moving in the direction that account predicts.

The Investment Thesis for Mineros 

• Near-term growth requires no construction decision, because the increment closest to delivery is a 50% processing-capacity expansion in Nicaragua, scheduled during the year covered by production guidance of 220,000 to 240,000 gold-equivalent ounces.
• Stockpiled ore reduces the execution risk on that increment, since roughly 11,000 ounces of material had already been mined and moved to surface stockpiles awaiting processing at the end of the first quarter of 2026.
• Purchased ore makes Nicaraguan costs move with the gold price, because around 80% of the ore processed at Hemco is bought from the Bonanza Mining Partnership at prices indexed to gold, with margin guidance of 39% to 41% for 2026. 
• Recovery gains contribute independently of capital spending, with management reporting gold recoveries moving from 87% toward beyond 90% and Colombian recoveries already moving from 84% to 87%. 
• Porvenir is a 2027 question, not a 2026 one, with the company targeting a construction decision in early 2027 and outstanding environmental approvals before the end of 2026, against an initial capital of US$206.8 million.
• The operating case is not yet visible in published cost tables, because costs are reported at the property level, two conflicting property-level guidance ranges are in circulation, and no mine-level figures exist for Panamá or Pioneer. 

The distinction that governs this investment case is one of sequence. Porvenir offers the larger increment and the harder economics, but it also comes with a permitting gate, a construction decision, and a capital commitment of US$206.8 million with no disclosed funding path. The plant expansion faces none of those, and it is scheduled inside the guidance year the company has already raised. It lacks verification. Property-level cost reporting has to be reconciled, and a half-year income statement placed beside the half-year production figures before the nearest increment reads as more than an account from management that the production numbers happen to corroborate.     

TL;DR

Mineros is a mid-tier Latin American gold producer whose primary source of production growth is a 50% processing-capacity expansion in Nicaragua, not the Porvenir project, which is awaiting an early 2027 construction decision. Management says a processing bottleneck had previously led the company to throttle output at its own Panamá and Pioneer mines, and that reversing that instruction brought cash cost at those mines to US$1,200 per ounce in the first quarter of 2026. Roughly 11,000 ounces of mined material were standing in surface stockpiles awaiting throughput, so the first increment from the expansion requires no additional mining. The constraint on the thesis is disclosure rather than operations: throughput, recoveries, and mine-level costs appear in no published table, and two conflicting property-level AISC guidance ranges are in circulation.   

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