Energy Fuels' Triple Catalyst Q1 2026: Toliara FID, Donald Feasibility & White Mesa Expansion Study

• Energy Fuels delivered exceptional performance in 2025 as the best-performing uranium stock, outpacing its closest competitor by more than double, whilst building a diversified critical minerals hub centred on uranium, rare earths, and heavy mineral sands.
• The company is ramping uranium production towards 2 million pounds annually, processing 350,000 pounds in December alone - a significant milestone when many US producers struggle to achieve 100,000 pounds quarterly.
• White Mesa Mill provides unique competitive advantages with demonstrated rare earth processing capabilities, heavy mineral separation, and recent addition of an MREC circuit, positioning Energy Fuels to process material from diverse sources including ionic clays.
• The Toliara project in Madagascar remains a world-class, low-cost heavy mineral sands and monazite deposit with feasibility studies showing NPV exceeding $1.5 billion at 10% discount rate, with final investment decision expected by Q1 2026.
• Strong balance sheet with approximately $1 billion in cash, reinforced by a $700 million convertible note at an exceptionally low 0.75% coupon - significantly below the 4-5.5% rates competitors are paying - demonstrates market confidence and provides capital flexibility.

Energy Fuels (NYSE: UUUU) has emerged as a standout performer in the critical minerals sector, delivering returns in 2025 that position it as the year's best-performing uranium stock - outpacing its nearest competitor by more than 100%. With a current market capitalisation of $5 billion and share price around $21, the company has executed a strategic vision that CEO Mark Chalmers first articulated two and a half years ago. As the United States intensifies its focus on critical mineral security and energy independence, Energy Fuels stands uniquely positioned at the intersection of uranium production, rare earth processing, and heavy mineral sands development.

The company's strategy centres on leveraging its 50-year uranium processing heritage at the White Mesa Mill in Utah to create a diversified critical minerals platform. This approach addresses a fundamental challenge facing Western economies: reducing dependence on foreign - particularly Chinese - supply chains for materials essential to clean energy, defence, and advanced manufacturing. With a workforce that has grown from 100 employees in the United States a few years ago to 260-270 domestically and 600-700 globally, Energy Fuels has achieved critical mass that few competitors can match.

Uranium Production: Delivering on Core Operations

Energy Fuels' uranium operations provide the foundation for its broader critical minerals strategy. The company mined approximately 1.6 million pounds of uranium in 2025 and processed over 1 million pounds whilst stockpiling additional feed. For 2026, management targets mining production exceeding 2 million pounds annually, with processing planned for at least the first six months depending on rare earth processing activities.

The scale of operations became particularly evident in December 2025, when the White Mesa Mill processed 350,000 pounds of uranium in a single month. As Chalmers emphasised, this stands in stark contrast to competitors:

"350,000 pounds in a single month when a lot of people are trying to get to 100,000 pounds in a quarter." This production capability directly addresses criticism that Energy Fuels had deprioritised uranium. "The naysayers that were saying, 'Oh, we've got out of the uranium business. We don't care about uranium.' Well, we're doing pretty good," Chalmers noted.

The company's production economics remain highly competitive, with costs at the Pinyon Plain mine ranging between $23-30 per pound. At current uranium prices hovering around $83 per pound, this generates substantial margins. Chalmers built the Pinyon Plain mine 38 years ago, and it continues to anchor the company's cost-competitive position. The company secured long-term contracts covering 600,000 - 800,000 pounds in 2026, whilst maintaining flexibility to capitalise on spot market opportunities. In 2025, Energy Fuels realised average prices in the mid - $70s per pound across contract and spot sales.

Rare Earth Processing: Technical Capabilities Setting Energy Fuels Apart

Energy Fuels has developed rare earth processing capabilities that Chalmers describes as unmatched in the United States. The White Mesa Mill can process rare earth feedstocks through to separated oxides, with output already pre-qualified by multiple potential customers. Recent technical additions have expanded the facility's versatility, including the installation of an MREC (ionic clay processing) circuit that enables processing of cracked material from ionic clays and other sources before separation.

"We are so advanced when it comes to feed processing capabilities demonstrated that we can get to oxides that oxides can be has been pre-qualified with a number of outside parties," Chalmers explained.

The company's ability to recover heavy rare earth elements particularly distinguishes its offering, as these materials command premium pricing and face the most acute supply constraints.

The mill's flexibility allows Energy Fuels to balance uranium and rare earth processing according to market conditions and customer demand signals. For 2026, uranium processing is planned for at least six months, but this could extend depending on rare earth opportunities. The company submitted Phase 2 separation plant upgrades that would scale the facility to match the capacity of Lynas Rare Earths' operations whilst maintaining separated heavy rare earth capabilities - a technical achievement few Western facilities can claim.

Interview with Energy Fuels Inc's President & CEO, Mark Chalmers

Technical Team and Operational Scale

Energy Fuels has assembled what Chalmers characterises as "the strongest technical team in all critical minerals of anybody in the United States that I know of." This team's breadth spans uranium, vanadium, and rare earth elements - a combination that reflects the company's diversified approach. The technical expertise extends globally, with a Perth office supporting Australian operations, teams in Madagascar and Kenya for African projects, and personnel managing the Australian joint venture.

This operational scale provides Energy Fuels with advantages that extend beyond processing. The company maintains uranium-vanadium mines at La Sal and Pandora, and whilst vanadium recovery is currently suspended, the element remains in solution and can be recovered from tailings at a later date when economics justify it. "You got to be in the game to capitalise on the game," Chalmers noted, highlighting the optionality this creates.

Toliara Project: World-Class Heavy Mineral Sands

The Toliara project in Madagascar represents one of Energy Fuels' most significant development assets. The recently released feasibility study confirmed previous economic assessments, showing net present value exceeding $1.5 billion at a 10% discount rate. Chalmers describes Toliara as "the lowest cost undeveloped heavy mineral sand and monazite deposit in the world" with long life and large scale characteristics.

The project has faced some political uncertainty following a change in Madagascar's government, but Energy Fuels maintains significant in-country presence and continues working closely with government officials. "We see it as a very important project in Madagascar for the region for the government as a whole and we plan to work very very closely with them to deliver that project as soon as possible," Chalmers stated.

Capital costs have increased somewhat from previous estimates but remain reasonable in the context of the project's economics. Energy Fuels targets a final investment decision by the end of Q1 2026, which would represent a significant milestone in advancing the company's heavy mineral sands strategy. The project would provide monazite feedstock for the White Mesa Mill's rare earth processing operations, creating vertical integration within Energy Fuels' critical minerals platform.

Donald Project and Multiple Feasibility Studies

Alongside Toliara, Energy Fuels is advancing the Donald project, with a feasibility study anticipated by the end of Q1 2026. Additionally, a feasibility study on the White Mesa Mill upgrades will provide economic details on the rare earth processing expansion. This confluence of studies will enable investors to understand the integrated economics of Energy Fuels' strategy and how the company compares to global peers.

"We will have these multiple studies coming out that provides people the ability to connect the dots on what the economics look like and where we kind of fit into the world pecking order and we're really excited about that," Chalmers explained. The studies will cover economics across the value chain - from mining through processing to separated products - giving a comprehensive view that few competitors can offer.

Capital Structure, Competitive Dynamics and Industry Positioning

Energy Fuels' financial position has strengthened considerably, with approximately $1 billion in cash on the balance sheet. The company's capital markets success became particularly evident with a $700 million convertible note offering featuring a coupon of just 0.75% - dramatically below the 4-5.5% rates other uranium companies have paid for similar instruments. This financing was arranged with Goldman Sachs and attracted significant investor interest.

"I had number of investors say that was the big event for energy fuels for the year is being able to raise that quantum at those kind of terms," Chalmers noted. The favourable terms reflect market confidence in Energy Fuels' execution capabilities and strategic positioning. This capital provides flexibility for both organic development and potential acquisitions or partnerships as opportunities emerge in the consolidating critical minerals sector.

Energy Fuels' diversified approach addresses investor concerns about single-project risk whilst creating synergies competitors cannot easily replicate. The company's 50-year uranium processing history provides operational expertise that has proven difficult for others to restart. Multiple projects globally have faced challenges restarting or initiating uranium production, whilst Energy Fuels continues expanding output.

The company increasingly receives inbound interest from parties seeking processing partnerships, acquisition opportunities, and strategic investments. "The phone keeps ringing with people that want to deal with us in different things," Chalmers noted. Upstream producers lacking access to processing facilities see value in partnering with Energy Fuels, whilst investors recognise the company's critical mass and balance sheet strength.

Looking Forward: Execution and Catalysts

Energy Fuels enters 2026 with momentum following a year in which the stock appreciated approximately 45% through mid-January alone. The company focuses on revenue growth and moving towards profitability, with uranium production providing near-term cash generation whilst rare earth and heavy mineral sands projects advance towards commercial production.

Key catalysts for 2026 include final investment decisions on both Toliara and Donald, the White Mesa Mill upgrade feasibility study, continued uranium production ramp-up, and potential government support programmes. The company's flexibility to balance uranium and rare earth processing according to demand signals and market conditions provides tactical advantages as both markets develop.

Chalmers acknowledges the challenges inherent in the business: "This is a hard business. We always look over our shoulder and make sure we're not overconfident." However, after 50 years in the industry, he expresses confidence in Energy Fuels' ability to deliver: "We're experienced and we deliver and we do what we say we're going to do."

The Investment Thesis for Energy Fuels

• Proven Production Platform: Only US company with operating uranium production at scale (targeting 2+ million pounds annually) and processing capability, generating positive cash flow with production costs of $23-30/lb against uranium prices around $83/lb
• Unique Rare Earth Capabilities: White Mesa Mill represents America's only operational facility processing rare earths to separated oxides, with pre-qualified product and recent MREC circuit addition enabling processing of diverse feedstocks including ionic clays
• World-Class Development Pipeline: Toliara project in Madagascar ranks as lowest-cost undeveloped heavy mineral sands/monazite deposit globally with NPV exceeding $1.5 billion; final investment decision expected Q1 2026
• Vertical Integration Strategy: Combined mining, processing, and separation capabilities across uranium and rare earths create difficult-to-replicate competitive moat and reduce supply chain dependencies
• Superior Capital Structure: $1 billion cash balance supplemented by $700 million convertible at 0.75% coupon (versus 4-5.5% competitors pay) provides significant development and M&A optionality
• Market Leadership Validated: Best-performing uranium stock in 2025, outpacing nearest competitor by over 100%; $5 billion market capitalisation reflects growing investor recognition of strategic value
• Technical Excellence: 600-700 person organization with deep expertise across uranium, rare earths, and heavy minerals; scaled from 100 US employees to 260-270 in recent years, demonstrating operational capacity
• Government Alignment: Critical minerals security focus of Trump administration creates supportive policy backdrop for domestic producer with demonstrated capabilities versus development-stage competitors
• Multiple Near-Term Catalysts: Q1 2026 feasibility studies on Donald project and White Mesa upgrades, Toliara final investment decision, continued uranium production ramp, and potential government programme participation
• Optionality and Flexibility: Ability to modulate between uranium and rare earth processing, suspend/restart vanadium recovery, and pursue acquisitions provides management with tactical and strategic flexibility

Macro Thematic Analysis: Critical Minerals and Western Supply Chain Independence

The United States and allied Western nations face a strategic vulnerability in critical minerals supply chains, with China dominating processing of materials essential to clean energy transition, defence systems, and advanced manufacturing. Rare earth elements exemplify this challenge - China controls over 90% of global processing despite representing less than 40% of mining. This concentration creates national security risks and economic dependencies that recent geopolitical tensions have brought into sharp focus. The Trump administration's renewed emphasis on critical mineral security, combined with bipartisan recognition of supply chain vulnerabilities, has created unprecedented policy support for domestic production and processing capabilities.

Energy Fuels occupies a unique position as the only company with operational uranium production and rare earth processing capabilities in the United States, providing optionality across multiple critical materials. As CEO Mark Chalmers stated:

"We are like no other company in the critical mineral space where we're building a critical mineral hub using our longstanding uranium processing capabilities but also the ability to mine and recover rare earth into oxides."

This positioning becomes increasingly valuable as governments prioritise resilient, diversified supply chains.

TL;DR: Executive Summary

Energy Fuels delivered the highest returns of any uranium stock in 2025 whilst building America's only integrated critical minerals platform spanning uranium production (targeting 2+ million lbs annually), rare earth processing to separated oxides, and world-class heavy mineral sands development. The company's $1 billion balance sheet, strengthened by a $700 million convertible at just 0.75% coupon, funds multiple Q1 2026 catalysts including feasibility studies and final investment decisions. With proven production generating cash at attractive margins ($23-30/lb costs versus $83/lb uranium prices) and unmatched processing capabilities at White Mesa Mill, Energy Fuels offers investors exposure to critical minerals security themes with operational validation few competitors can match.

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