Major Banks Forecast $5,000 Gold as Development Companies Advance Multi-Million-Ounce Projects in 2026

• The gold sector is experiencing a fundamental structural shift driven by supply constraints as major producers exhaust high-grade reserves while new large-scale discoveries remain scarce, creating a genuine supply deficit that elevated prices cannot immediately address.
• Major financial institutions including JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, UBS, Deutsche Bank, and HSBC are forecasting gold prices reaching $5,000 per ounce in 2026, with sustained trading above $4,500 creating improved project economics for development-stage companies in tier-one jurisdictions.
• Development-stage gold companies are demonstrating organic resource growth through systematic drilling programs, with multiple projects showing mineralized envelope expansions of 10-20% beyond conservative preliminary economic assessments and resource increases exceeding two million ounces.
• Strategic partnerships with major mining companies are providing external validation and eliminating near-term financing pressure, with partner-funded exploration budgets reaching $12 million annually and fully carried interests to commercial production representing hundreds of millions in avoided shareholder dilution.
• Near-term catalysts throughout 2026 include feasibility study deliveries, phase one drilling programs targeting million-ounce expansion, assay results from high-grade discoveries, and infrastructure commissioning that will eliminate significant toll milling costs and directly convert to EBITDA improvement.

The gold sector is experiencing a fundamental structural shift that extends beyond typical cyclical dynamics. With prices sustaining above $4,500 per ounce and major financial institutions projecting further appreciation, development-stage gold companies in tier-one jurisdictions are attracting renewed institutional capital while benefiting from improved project economics. Recent updates from companies operating across diverse jurisdictions demonstrate how elevated gold prices, technical achievements, and strategic positioning are creating compelling investment opportunities for 2026.

Institutional Conviction & Supply Deficit Dynamics

The macroeconomic backdrop for gold has shifted decisively. Surface Metals CEO Steve Hanson recently returned from meetings with institutional investors in New York and Toronto, reporting substantive conviction amongst major financial institutions:

"Gold has been a major theme for 2025. Gold has hit all-time highs. It continues to trade above $4,000. Most of the major banks in New York are calling for $5,000 gold in 2026 including JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and even some of the world banks, whether it be UBS or Deutsche Bank, HSBC and others are calling for double-digit growth in the gold price in 2026."

Beyond price forecasts, Hanson highlighted a critical supply-side constraint that may exacerbate price pressure:

"There have not been that many gold mines that have gone into production in the last few years. There are very few. Most of the existing mines have high-graded the higher grade ore. They're into medium to lower grade ore now, so we're going to have a supply crunch here actually that will potentially drive prices, too."

As major producers exhaust higher-grade reserves and new large-scale discoveries remain scarce, the industry faces a genuine supply deficit. The companies advancing development-stage projects with clear paths to production stand to benefit from both elevated prices and increasing scarcity value.

Interview with Stephen Hanson, President & CEO of Surface Metals

Nevada Projects: Tier-One Jurisdiction Advantages

Nevada continues to demonstrate its position as North America's premier gold jurisdiction, with multiple companies advancing projects that leverage existing infrastructure, established regulatory frameworks, and proximity to major operations.

i-80 Gold is executing a comprehensive three-phase development plan targeting 200,000 ounces of annual production by 2028. President and CEO Richard Young explained the company's trajectory:

"We announced 12 months ago a three-phase development plan that would take production from less than 50,000 ounces of gold per year to over 600,000 ounces of gold production annually."

With the company targeting first gold pour from the refurbished autoclave before year-end 2027, this timeline is critical for achieving 2028 production and EBITDA targets of $200-300 million. Infrastructure improvements during Q3 addressed water management constraints at Granite Creek. The company's total mineralized envelope expanded 10-20% beyond preliminary economic assessment estimates while drilling program are validating management's conservative approach to resource estimation. Regarding Cove underground mine, Young noted:

"The infill program was completed in the first quarter. And again, it's a material increase in the resource that we expect to report when that feasibility work is done."

Interview with Richard Young, President & CEO of i-80 Gold

Surface Metals' April 2025 acquisition of the Cimarron Gold Project positions the company to capitalize on near-term market opportunities while maintaining lithium optionality. Located in Nevada's Walker Lane trend approximately 35 kilometers south of Kinross's Round Mountain mine, Cimarron benefits from extensive historical work by Newmont and Echo Bay.

CEO Steve Hanson explained the company plans to initiate a phase one drill program in 2026 with multiple objectives:

"Number one is let's confirm these high-grade intercepts that were found back in the 80s and 90s. Let's confirm this non-43-101 resource that's there and potentially there's more ounces there too. And then we want to make additional discoveries. There's mineralisation that extends in multiple directions and in depth. And we want to continue to grow this resource over time."

The company's ambitious expansion target frames the phase one program as the initial step in systematic resource expansion. The presence of high-grade intercepts extending to surface suggests potential for near-surface oxide mineralization amenable to heap leach processing—a lower-cost development pathway particularly relevant for junior companies.

Meanwhile, at the Selena project in Nevada, Ridgeline Minerals presents an unconventional value proposition centered on its partnership with South32. The company discovered multiple massive sulphide horizons intersecting 17 meters of 6% zinc with 30-40 g/t silver, plus gold, copper, and antimony credits.

President and CEO Chad Peters addressed the communication challenge inherent in polymetallic deposits:

"We're reporting on six different metals. Just to put in perspective, we average 0.1% antimony. Antimony is five times as valuable as copper. So that 0.1% antimony hit is the equivalent to seeing half a percent copper. Suddenly over 17 metres as a byproduct element that starts looking really valuable."

Perhaps most compelling is South32's demonstrable commitment despite muted market response.

Peters noted, "Our stock went down. If my next step was we have to go raise money now at a depressed share price to go out and drill 10 more holes next year and prove to the market that it actually is what we think it is. That would be really hard for us. It'd be highly dilutive and it'd be a real grind. I don't have to do any of that. South32 is fired up."

The company is targeting a 50-million-tonne system based on analogues and geophysical anomalies, with hole 54 currently drilling through the heart of the magnetotelluric target. For 2026, Ridgeline anticipates approximately $12 million in partner-funded exploration across Swift and Selena, representing the largest budget in company history.

Interview with Chad Peters, President & CEO of Ridgeline Minerals

New Discoveries and Scale

Omai Gold Mines achieved one of 2025's most substantial resource increases in the junior gold sector, expanding from 4.3 to 6.5 million ounces through aggressive drilling in Guyana. CEO Elaine Ellingham explained the strategic pivot that enabled this growth with the discovery of exceptionally wide, high-grade intercepts—including 4.5 grams per tonne over 57 meters and 3.2 grams per tonne over 68 meters—prompted deployment of additional drill rigs and concentrated efforts on defining deeper mineralized zones. The strategic shift proved successful:

"We even surprised ourselves, we were delighted and it really does put it in the category of one of the largest undeveloped gold projects."

The company is advancing an updated PEA integrating both the expanded Wenot open pit and Gilt Creek underground mine into a single operation contemplating 12,000 to 15,000 tonnes per day throughput. Ellingham emphasized the project's robustness:

"Regardless of the gold price, this project can handle a much lower gold price. It just ends up being extremely robust economically in this environment."

One of 2025's most significant technical achievements came from deep drilling 700 meters below previously identified mineralization. The intercept proves the shear structure continues to depth and remains mineralized, with Ellingham suggesting the potential to even double the size of that deposit.

Financial positioning strengthened dramatically following the resource update as Ellingham highlighted the company's $40 million financing completed approximately one month after publishing the August resource update, with less than 5% dilution. Permitting progress has benefited from political stability following the September 2025 presidential election, which resulted in a decisive victory for the incumbent government.

"Their enthusiasm for Omai and the other large scale gold mine developments is very strong," Ellingham reported.

Interview with Elaine Ellingham, CEO of Omai Gold Mines

Azimut Exploration is undergoing strategic transformation from prospect generator to development-focused explorer. CEO Jean-Marc Lulin, with 40 years of worldwide mineral exploration experience, outlined this evolution:

"Azimut is not considering itself as a project generator company now but much more a development company to advance to the resource stage, to the PEA stage on the very best discoveries it made."

The company is focusing on three 100%-owned gold projects: the Wabamisk gold discovery (including the Fortin Zone and Rosa Zone) and the Elmer discovery. The Fortin Zone represents one of Canada's most significant antimony systems, driven by what Lulin described as a huge strong regional scale antimony anomaly in lake-bottom sediments.

The Rosa Zone represents perhaps Azimut's most unexpected discovery. Lulin expressed surprise at finding high-grade gold in an extensively explored area:

"This has been a big surprise to have an outcropping zone extensive with a lot of visible gold never recognized before. [This discovery provides] immense confidence about the potential of everything we already know around it."

Initial drilling returned visible gold in 11 of 26 holes, with assay results expected by year-end 2025 or early January 2026. These results are crucial for planning the next exploration phase. Beyond gold, Azimut's Kukamas nickel-copper-PGE project with KGHM has revealed exceptional grades up to 19.6% nickel and 15 grams per ton combined platinum and palladium. Lulin explained the significance:

"We are dealing with a Kambalda-type nickel deposit which is one of the largest highest grade nickel camp in Western Australia."

KGHM has nearly completed its $5 million expenditure to earn 50% interest and is expected to proceed with the second option to earn an additional 20%.

Interview with Jean-Marc Lulin, CEO of Azimut Exploration

Toogood Gold represents an early-stage opportunity in Newfoundland's emerging gold district, where the company has consolidated a 164 km² land package featuring the high-grade Quinlan discovery. CEO Colin Smith, a geologist with 20 years of experience including roles at SSR Mining and Discovery Group, acquired the project through a favorable earn-in agreement with Prospector Metals, which made the initial discovery where visible gold was found in 15 of the first 19 drill holes.

The company completed a 2,000-meter, 33-hole drill program in summer 2025, with the best intersection from initial assays of 30 meters at about 2.3 g/t gold very close to surface. And in a significant strategic move, Toogood acquired the Golden Nugget property, consolidating 3,000 hectares featuring an 8.5-kilometer trend of rock samples along the southern shoreline averaging over 1 g/t gold, with approximately 87% identified as outcrop source.

The company maintains strong financial positioning with over $4 million in treasury following a $2 million financing in late October 2025.

Smith confirms: "We could easily do a full season of exploration with the current treasury. So we're fully funded for next year's exploration."

Interview with Colin Smith, CEO of Toogood Gold

Looking Forward to 2026

The companies profiled demonstrate clear catalysts for 2026 that should enable investors to assess execution capability and project quality.

• i-80 Gold expects to deliver three feasibility studies between Q1 2026 and Q1 2027 for Granite Creek, Archimedes, and Cove, while advancing autoclave refurbishment toward year-end 2027 commissioning.
• Surface Metals plans to commence phase one drilling at Cimarron targeting confirmation of historical intercepts and expansion toward one million ounces.
• Ridgeline anticipates results from drill hole 54 testing the core of the Selena magnetotelluric target in January 2026, alongside pending Swift project assays and resumption of drilling across the portfolio.
• Omai continues operating five drill rigs focused on infill drilling to convert inferred resources while expanding along the southern margin of Wenot.
• Azimut Exploration expects critical Rosa Zone assays by year-end 2025/early 2026, with detailed 2026 program guidance to follow in Q1. The company plans aggressive 2026 drilling at the Fortin Zone pursuing dual objectives of better defining the antimony deposit's size and exploring vertical zonation to target deeper gold mineralization.
• Toogood Gold awaits 19 pending assays from its 2025 program while evaluating whether Quinlan demonstrates sufficient resource potential to warrant aggressive expansion drilling, with the company maintaining approximately five additional drill-ready targets including the newly consolidated Golden Nugget property featuring 8.5 kilometers of untested mineralized trend.

These near-term milestones provide investors with multiple decision points to evaluate management execution, geological continuity, and project economics. The companies operate across diverse jurisdictions—Nevada, Newfoundland, Guyana, Quebec—providing geographic diversification while maintaining focus on tier-one or tier-two mining jurisdictions with established infrastructure and regulatory frameworks.

The Investment Thesis for Gold

• ‍Supply Deficit and Price Support: Major producers are exhausting high-grade reserves while new large-scale discoveries remain scarce, creating a structural supply gap that elevated prices cannot immediately address. Development-stage projects in favorable jurisdictions with clear paths to production stand to benefit from both sustained prices above $4,500/oz and increasing scarcity value.

• Institutional Capital Return: Wall Street institutions including JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, UBS, Deutsche Bank, and HSBC are forecasting $5,000 gold in 2026, with renewed appetite for junior and mid-cap mining opportunities confirmed through recent institutional roadshows. This creates favorable financing environments for quality projects to advance toward production.

• Multiple Value Realization Pathways: Management teams are demonstrating willingness to consider asset sales, joint ventures, or corporate restructuring to unlock value beyond traditional development timelines. This provides shareholders with optionality particularly relevant in dual-commodity companies like Surface Metals where gold and lithium portfolios may warrant separation.

• Near-Term Catalysts Drive Decision Points: 2026 features multiple inflection points including i-80's feasibility studies, Surface Metals' Cimarron phase one drilling, Ridgeline's Selena hole 54 results, Omai's continued resource expansion drilling, and Azimut's Rosa assays. These catalysts enable investors to assess execution and make informed allocation decisions.

• ‍Margin Expansion Opportunities: i-80's autoclave refurbishment eliminating $1,000-$1,500/oz toll milling costs demonstrates how infrastructure investments directly convert to EBITDA improvement at elevated gold prices. The $400 million investment generates rapid payback on 200,000 oz annual production, with similar margin expansion opportunities across companies as they advance toward production.

• Technical De-Risking Through Systematic Exploration: Companies are validating deposit continuity through disciplined drilling programs. Omai's deep drilling with seven distinct gold zones, Toogood Gold's high-grade intersections at the Quinlan discovery, and Ridgeline's discovery hole validating a 2-kilometer geophysical anomaly, demonstrate how systematic technical work reduces geological risk.

• Jurisdictional Diversification With Quality Focus: Portfolio exposure across Nevada, Newfoundland, Guyana, Quebec, and Australia provides geographic diversification while maintaining focus on jurisdictions with established mining industries, clear regulatory frameworks, and infrastructure advantages. This balance manages political risk while accessing quality geology.

TL;DR

The gold sector is experiencing a fundamental shift driven by supply constraints, institutional conviction, and sustained elevated prices. Development-stage companies operating in tier-one jurisdictions with proven technical teams, partner validation, and clear paths to production are positioned to deliver substantial value creation through 2026 and beyond. The companies profiled demonstrate diverse approaches to resource expansion, operational optimization, and financial discipline, providing investors with multiple vehicles to capture gold's structural bull market while managing risk through portfolio construction. As major financial institutions forecast continued price appreciation and supply deficits become increasingly apparent, the development-stage gold sector warrants serious consideration from investors seeking leveraged exposure to one of 2025's defining investment themes.

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