ValOre Metals Advances Pedra Branca as Global PGE Supply Tightens Further in 2026

• Norilsk Nickel reported first-quarter 2026 platinum production down 26% year-over-year and palladium down 18%, with full-year 2026 guidance projecting overall annual declines across both metals.
• Zimplats reported a 56% decline in first-quarter 2026 six-element Platinum Group Element (PGE) output due to an extended smelter shutdown; Zimbabwe subsequently announced an indefinite ban on the export of unrefined critical minerals.
• South Africa, Russia, and Zimbabwe control approximately 90% of global primary PGE supply, and above-ground inventories have been cut by 42%, leaving less than five months of coverage.
• ValOre Metals' Pedra Branca project in northeast Brazil hosts a 2,198,000-ounce National Instrument 43-101 (NI 43-101) inferred resource of platinum, palladium, and gold, with a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) targeted for delivery in the fourth quarter of 2026.
• ValOre Metals' CEO argues that PGE developers as a group are relatively undervalued, with the market yet to fully price the structural constraints on bringing additional supply to market.

The Platinum Group Element (PGE) supply deficit was already well documented and a multi-year problem before this year's first-quarter production reports arrived. Those figures confirm that the shortfall is not stabilising. Two of the largest producers outside South Africa posted material volume declines in the first three months of 2026, and Zimbabwe imposed new export restrictions on unrefined critical minerals. For a market already running below equilibrium, the combination represents active deterioration.

First Quarter 2026 Production Declines

Russia's Norilsk Nickel reported first-quarter 2026 platinum production down 26% year-over-year and palladium output down 18% over the same period. Copper production fell 10% in the quarter. Full-year 2026 guidance from Norilsk projects further declines of 10 to 11% for palladium and 5 to 8% for platinum.

Zimbabwe's Zimplats reported a 56% decline in combined six-element platinum group output for the first quarter of 2026, attributed to an extended smelter shutdown. The severity of that single-quarter drop reflects how quickly production volumes can erode in a supply geography with little redundancy.

Geographic Concentration, the Zimbabwe Export Ban & Structural Deficit

South Africa, Russia, and Zimbabwe together account for approximately 90% of global primary PGE supply, with Norilsk alone producing roughly 40% of the world's primary palladium. The reserve base is similarly concentrated, with the large majority of global deposits hosted within South Africa's borders. Production losses concentrated within that geography carry an outsized effect on global supply.

Zimbabwe's government announced an indefinite ban on the export of unrefined critical minerals in late April 2026. The policy establishes a new constraint within one of the three countries that dominate global output.

Chief Executive Officer of ValOre Metals (TSX-V: VO | OTCQB: KVLQF | FSE: KEQ0), Nick Smart, notes that the geographic concentration makes source diversification a structural requirement rather than an optional strategy.

"There's a geopolitical risk here when you've got such a concentration within South Africa, Russia, and Zimbabwe. I think there's going to be a realisation of that, and a desire to diversify some of where those metals are coming from, and we've seen that across a number of critical metals. PGEs are critical metals. Where you've got good projects within a jurisdiction like Brazil, which is a good place to develop projects like this, there would be an added impetus to bring those projects forward, and we're starting to see that as well."

Multi-year consecutive deficits in PGE markets have been running at 500,000 to 700,000 ounces annually, with above-ground inventories cut by 42% and less than five months of coverage remaining. Automotive applications account for approximately 40% of total platinum demand and approximately 80% of palladium and rhodium demand, while hybrid vehicles require 10 to 20% more PGEs than internal combustion engine vehicles. Physical platinum investment in China grew from near zero in 2019 to over 400,000 ounces in 2025. Both metals reflected that tightening in price: platinum reached an all-time high of $2,700 per ounce before settling near $2,000, and palladium climbed to $2,000 per ounce before closing near $1,700.

Pedra Branca's 2026 Milestones & Resource Position

Pedra Branca, ValOre Metals' PGE project in northeast Brazil, currently carries a NI 43-101 inferred resource of 2,198,000 ounces of platinum, palladium, and gold in 63,568,000 tonnes at a grade of 1.08 grams per tonne. The resource spans seven distinct near-surface zones; the four core deposits of Esbarro, Curiu, Cedro, and Cana Brava, together with the southern Trapia and Massape zones, each contain more than 1 million ounces combined. The current estimate is drawn from 2022 data and does not yet incorporate more than 6,000 metres of drilling across five new zones completed in 2023, including the Salvador target.

Bioleaching test work combined with a pre-treatment step on weathered material demonstrated platinum and palladium extractions in the 70% range, yielding recovery rates of approximately 73% and 74%, respectively.

Smart describes the function of the Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) as demonstrating that the project's ounces can be extracted and sold economically.

"We're advancing the test work, the engineering work, and the preparation work in order to publish a preliminary economic assessment, which is our big target for the year. That's proving the economics: can we extract these ounces out of the ground economically and sell them? My view is yes, we can, and once we show and demonstrate that, we've got a real pathway to value there as well."

The 2026 programme at Pedra Branca also includes a resource update to incorporate the recently drilled targets planned for the first quarter and a merger and acquisition evaluation targeting potential near-term production in the third quarter. Ongoing work covers metallurgical and engineering studies, relogging of historical drill core at the core deposits to refine mine planning assumptions, and regional prospecting via VRIFY technology, surface geochemistry, and Trado auger drilling along the 8-kilometre Pitombeiras trend.

Development Runway & Market Pricing

The first-quarter production data from Norilsk and Zimplats, read alongside the Zimbabwe export ban and the current inventory position, compresses the development window for alternative PGE supply. New projects require years to advance from resource to production; the documented pace of deterioration makes that lag more consequential.

Smart places the market's current pricing of PGE developers against the backdrop of structural supply constraints.

"There are real structural constraints around putting more metal into the market. I don't think the market has fully realised how difficult it is to bring in those additional metals. I think that space is really interesting. The PGE producers, the PGE developers, of which we are one, I think as a whole are relatively undervalued."

The constraints Smart describes are not new; what the first-quarter 2026 data adds is that they are now current rather than projected. Whether and when that shift registers in the market valuation of PGE developers remains an open question.

FAQs (AI-Generated)