Why Nickel's Structural Moment Is Still Coming & Why It Matters for Investors

• Crawford Nickel Sulphide Project holds the world's second-largest nickel reserve, with a FEED-updated after-tax NPV of US$2.8 billion and an IRR of 17.6%.
• Indonesia now controls 61.3% of global nickel mine production, creating a structural supply risk that benefits non-Indonesian producers like Canada Nickel.
• Strategic shareholders including Agnico Eagle (10%), Samsung SDI (7.2%), and Anglo American (6.3%) have already committed capital, signaling institutional confidence.
• The Timmins Nickel District contains 10.1 million tonnes of Measured and Indicated nickel and 12.5 million tonnes of Inferred nickel across eight published resource estimates.
• A US$2.5 billion financing package is being assembled, with construction targeted by year-end 2026 and first production expected by year-end 2028.

Why Nickel's Structural Moment Is Still Coming & Why It Matters for Investors

Global primary nickel usage stood at 3.347 million tonnes in 2024, up from 3.193 million tonnes in 2023, a year-on-year increase of approximately 4.8%, according to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG). The INSG projects demand to reach 3.537 million tonnes in 2025. Looking further out, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts total nickel demand could reach approximately 4.9 million tonnes by 2030, with battery-specific nickel demand alone hitting 1.5 million tonnes annually by the end of the decade, triple current battery nickel consumption levels. It is important to note that Canada Nickel Company's own investor deck projects demand exceeding 5 million tonnes by 2030, which is the company's internal estimate and is more optimistic than current third-party consensus.

Investors should also be clear-eyed about the near-term market picture: the INSG reported a 179,000-tonne surplus in 2024 and projects an even larger 198,000-tonne surplus in 2025, driven by continued Indonesian production growth.

Combined, two countries control over 70% of global mined nickel supply, a concentration that exceeds what OPEC held over oil at its 1973 peak. Canada Nickel's CEO Mark Selby has characterized Indonesia's emerging supply discipline as an "ONEC" dynamic, and while the market remains in surplus today, Indonesia's regulatory tightening, including the shift to annual mining permit quotas and significant forestry violation fines, introduces meaningful upside price risk over Crawford's development timeline.

The Asset: Scale That Is Hard to Replicate

Crawford's Bankable Feasibility Study, published in October 2023 and updated through Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) results released in March 2025, underpins the project's financial case. The FEED improved the after-tax NPV by more than US$300 million to US$2.8 billion and lifted the IRR from 17.1% to 17.6%, while holding the increase in initial capital to just 5%, bringing it to US$2.0 billion. Including expected Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) tax credits, the NPV rises further to US$2.9 billion.

The two-phase production plan is designed to scale efficiently. Phase I, covering the first 3.5 years, processes 60,000 tonnes of ore per day and produces 26,000 tonnes of nickel annually. Phase II expands that to 120,000 tonnes per day and 48,000 tonnes of nickel annually, generating average annual EBITDA of US$811 million and free cash flow of US$546 million during the 27-year peak period. Life-of-mine figures stand at US$667 million and US$431 million in annual EBITDA and free cash flow respectively, figures that suggest Crawford, once built, would be a significant cash generator by global mining standards.

The project is also expected to be a first-quartile cost producer globally. Wood Mackenzie's global cost curve analysis shows Crawford's net C1 cash cost of US$0.39 per pound positions it among the lowest-cost nickel operations in the world, a key durability metric for investors assessing downside protection in commodity cycles. As Prime Minister Mark Carney stated publicly:

"Canada Nickel's Crawford Project will anchor Canada's global leadership in clean industrial materials. Crawford will set the global standard for the future of responsible mining."

The Supply Shock Catalyst: Indonesia Tightens Its Grip

Indonesia controls 61.3% of global nickel mine production. The Philippines adds a further 9.2%, bringing the combined concentration to over 70%, a level of supply dominance that surpasses what OPEC exercised over oil at the cartel's 1973 peak of 54% Persian Gulf control. Canada Nickel's CEO Mark Selby has described this dynamic as the emergence of an "ONEC," a one-country OPEC of nickel, and the regulatory actions taken by Jakarta in recent years have given that characterization increasing credibility.

Indonesia has moved from rhetoric to action. The government has cut mining license durations from three years to one, introduced tiered royalty rates at nickel price thresholds of US$18,000, US$21,000, US$24,000, and US$31,000 per tonne, banned new nickel pig iron smelters and HPAL operations, and imposed fines of US$600,000 per hectare for forestry violations. In early 2026, both PT Vale and Eramet announced issues with mine quotas, a concrete signal that supply curtailments are materializing. Canada Nickel's investor materials frame the supply concentration risk in stark historical terms:

"Indonesia now controls more nickel supply than OPEC did at its peak in 1973. With reduction in mining licenses to 1 year from 3 years and forestry violations leading to closures, Indonesia now going to more aggressively manage supply for its largest export product."

This supply discipline, combined with the structural demand growth driven by electric vehicles, creates a tightening price environment that directly benefits projects like Crawford. Indonesia's incentive to manage supply is also structural: nickel and stainless steel exports reached US$38 to US$40 billion in 2024, according to the country's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, making nickel the country's largest export category and giving Jakarta every reason to maximize price over volume.

The Investment Thesis for Canada Nickel Company

• Buy the scale discount: Crawford is the world's second-largest nickel reserve but trades at a market capitalization of C$459 million, a significant discount to its US$2.8 billion after-tax NPV.
• Ride the ONEC trade: Indonesian supply discipline is tightening; non-Indonesian nickel producers with near-term production timelines represent a structurally scarce asset class.
• Follow the institutional money: Agnico Eagle, Samsung SDI, and Anglo American are not passive financial investors; they are strategic partners with industry knowledge, validating the project's technical and commercial credibility.
• Monitor the financing milestones: The US$2.5 billion funding package targets US$1.0 billion in equity including US$600 million in federal investment tax credits, and US$1.5 billion in debt, with Export Development Canada already issuing a US$500 million letter of interest.
• Consider the district upside: The Timmins Nickel District's eight published resource estimates total 10.1 million tonnes of Measured and Indicated nickel, a resource base that, if fully developed, would rival the historic Sudbury district's estimated 19 million tonne endowment.
• Watch the carbon sequestration angle: Crawford's three carbon storage pathways, IPT Carbonation, the NetCarb Alliance, and the University of Texas/US DOE ARPA-E injection partnership, position the project to qualify for CCUS tax credits that could add US$100 million to project NPV.

Building a District, Not Just a Mine

Beyond Crawford, Canada Nickel has consolidated more than 20 ultramafic targets across the Timmins region, covering 42 square kilometers of geophysical footprint, 25 times the 1.6 square kilometer footprint of Crawford itself. Eight of nine published resources contain a combined 10.1 million tonnes of Measured and Indicated nickel and 12.5 million tonnes of Inferred nickel, across 4.3 billion tonnes and 5.4 billion tonnes of rock respectively. The company's investor presentation puts the district's scale into context:

"Eight of nine resources published containing 10.1 million tonnes of Measured and Indicated nickel (4.3 billion tonnes at 0.24% nickel) and 12.5 million tonnes of Inferred nickel (5.4 billion tonnes at 0.23% nickel)."

The Reid property alone is already showing scale comparable to Crawford, with an Indicated Resource of 1.4 million tonnes of nickel and an Inferred Resource of 2.2 million tonnes, and the current resource covers only 55% of Reid's target geophysical footprint, which is more than twice Crawford's size. Mann West returned the district's highest-grade interval to date: 0.63% nickel over 4.5 metres within 18 metres grading 0.40% nickel, itself within an entire core length of 452 metres averaging 0.27% nickel. At Bannockburn, Canada Nickel drilled its first massive sulphide intersection in the district: 3.95% nickel over 4.0 metres within 12 metres grading 1.61% nickel, a result more typical of high-grade sulphide camps than the low-grade disseminated style that defines the bulk of the district.

The company's wholly owned subsidiary, NetZero Metals, is advancing downstream processing facilities in the Timmins region that would make it the largest nickel processing operation in North America and Canada's only large stainless and alloy production facility. As Ontario's Minister of Energy and Mines Stephen Lecce stated:

"In 2026, our government is going full-tilt to unlock one of the world's largest nickel deposits that will supercharge our economy and help end China's critical mineral dominance."

Funding discussions are underway with federal, provincial, and international government sources, including potential partners from France, Germany, Japan, and South Korea.

Key Takeaways and What This Means for Your Portfolio

Canada Nickel Company presents a rare combination: a world-class resource in a stable jurisdiction, institutional shareholder validation, explicit government support at the highest political level, and a macro environment where its primary commodity is tightening structurally. Investors must hold two realities simultaneously: the nickel market is in near-term surplus of 198,000 tonnes in 2025 per INSG, but the long-term structural case built on Indonesian supply concentration, battery demand growth to 1.5 million tonnes by 2030 per Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, and the scarcity of Class I nickel projects outside Southeast Asia, remains intact and arguably strengthening.

The financing package is complex but well-architected, with tax credit mechanisms reducing the effective equity burden and export credit agencies already engaged. The timeline, permits and full financing in 2026, construction start by year-end 2026, first production by year-end 2028, is ambitious but supported by Canada Nickel's regulatory progress, including filing its Environmental Impact Statement in November 2024 and achieving referral to Canada's Major Projects Office. For investors seeking exposure to the critical minerals supply chain, Crawford offers scale, cost positioning, and optionality that are genuinely difficult to find elsewhere in the nickel space. The discount to NPV is wide, the institutional endorsement is real, and the structural supply thesis is supported by verified data.

TL;DR

‍Canada Nickel's Crawford project is the world's second-largest nickel reserve, costs US$0.39 per pound to produce at steady state, carries a US$2.8 billion after-tax NPV, and is targeting construction by year-end 2026, all while Indonesian supply dominance at 61.3% of global mine production tightens the long-term market outlook.

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